Outlook Connelly Early
Rookie Connelly Early struggles with long ball ahead of tough matchup in Seattle
The last-place Red Sox have kept Connelly Early in the rotation as their number four starter, especially with multiple starting pitchers on the injured list. However, the rookie has struggled heavily of late, posting an 8.57 ERA and a bloated 2.62 WHIP over his last two starts. Recent news highlights his major vulnerability to the long ball, having surrendered 14 home runs over his last 11 outings.
While Early's recent ratio inflation is alarming, our models project him for a more stable 3.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the rest of the season. His year-to-date 3.94 ERA over 73.1 innings suggests his current slide is a temporary rough patch rather than a total collapse. Expect his home run-to-flyball rate to normalize, eventually bringing his ratios back to respectable levels.
Early is scheduled for just one remaining start this week on Saturday at Seattle. He faces a tough matchup against Emerson Hancock, who boasts a strong 3.28 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Given Early's current form and high ratio risk, fantasy managers should leave him on the bench for this turn. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 3 days ago
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Outlook Freddy Peralta
Struggles with deep-game efficiency overshadow Peralta's high-strikeout upside in New York
Freddy Peralta enters the 2026 season in a prime position as the staff anchor for the Mets. After a blockbuster trade from Milwaukee, the 30-year-old veteran is in the final year of his current contract and highly motivated to secure a long-term extension. In his new home, Peralta provides New York with a proven front-line arm, though his durability and ability to pitch deep into games remain key focal points after a career of high-stress, high-pitch-count innings.
Our season projection expects Peralta to be a major source of strikeouts, forecasting 180 punchouts over 168.0 innings. While his current 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with the Mets show some vulnerability to traffic on the basepaths, our models suggest those ratios will stabilize to a more characteristic 3.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. If he can curb his walk rate and replicate the elite 2.89 ERA form he displayed last year, he will easily deliver on his top-tier strikeout rate of nearly ten batters per nine innings.
In fantasy drafts, Peralta remains a highly coveted target around his ADP of 41. He offers a safe floor because of his elite strikeout capabilities but carries some risk due to past efficiency issues that often prevent him from qualifying for quality starts. He is best drafted as a high-upside number-two fantasy starter who can single-handedly carry strikeout categories when he is dialed in.
Updated 3 days ago
