Outlook Kai-Wei Teng
Velocity drops and extreme ratio inflation make Teng a risky option despite locked-in rotation security
Teng has struggled mightily of late, posting a disastrous 10.41 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over his last 12.1 innings, culminating in a rough outing against Detroit where his fastball velocity dipped. Despite these struggles, Houston's depleted rotation—with Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. sidelined—solidifies his role as the team's number three starter. His job security is safe for now, but the fourth-place Astros need him to find his form quickly to help turn around their 35-41 season.
While Teng's recent performance has been highly volatile, our models project him to settle in closer to a 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the rest of the year. His high-strikeout upside remains his primary appeal, but the elevated walk rates seen in his recent stretch are a major red flag. Expecting some positive regression toward his career 4.56 ERA is reasonable, but he remains a volatile asset until his velocity rebounds.
Looking at the remaining matchups for the week, Teng is slated for a Sunday start at home against the Guardians and Slade Cecconi. While Cleveland's lineup poses a challenge, Cecconi's elevated 4.74 ERA offers a decent matchup if Teng can regain his command. However, given his current velocity concerns and recent blowups, the smart play is to Sit him this week.
Updated 3 days ago
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Outlook David Peterson
David Peterson's move to the bullpen and ongoing ratio struggles make him fantasy-irrelevant for the foreseeable future.
It has been a highly discouraging stretch for David Peterson, who has floundered with a 13.06 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP over his last 14 days. The fifth-place Mets have officially bumped the left-hander to the bullpen to accommodate Sean Manaea, leaving Peterson to operate in a low-leverage long-relief role. While he occasionally flashes bulk-inning utility, his current form offers no stability for fantasy managers.
His current 6.11 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the year are massive steps backward from his career-best 2.99 ERA in 2024, and far worse than our rest-of-season projection of a 3.98 ERA. While his 8.43 K/9 keeps him interesting in deep leagues, his severe control issues make him a massive liability. Expect significant regression toward his career mean only if he can secure a rotation spot and limit the free passes.
Having already surrendered three runs in a relief appearance earlier this week, Peterson has no starts lined up for the remainder of the series against the Phillies. Facing tough matchups on the road, his lack of win or quality start potential makes him entirely unusable. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 3 days ago
