Outlook Zebby Matthews
Matthews Solidifies Rotation Spot Amid Twins Injuries But Ratio Risks Persist
The third-place Twins (35-40) are riding a three-game win streak but face a heavily depleted starting rotation with Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober sidelined. This has solidified Matthews' role as a key back-end starter in the rotation. He has been busy lately, throwing 20.0 innings over his last 14 days with a 4.95 ERA, most recently securing a win on June 16th with seven strong innings against Texas.
Under the hood, Matthews' current 4.80 season ERA aligns closely with our projection of a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. While his 1.18 WHIP this season is a marked improvement over his career marks, his vulnerability to the long ball remains a major concern, having surrendered one of the highest career HR/9 rates in franchise history. Expect some regression if his strikeout rate continues to hover near a modest 7.10 K/9.
Because Matthews already started on Tuesday, he has no remaining appearances scheduled for the rest of this matchup period as the team travels to Arizona. Since he will not take the mound again this week, fantasy managers should move him to the bench. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 3 days ago
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Outlook Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen's ongoing ratio struggles make him a risky fantasy option despite retaining his status as Arizona's rotation leader.
Over the last 30 days, Gallen has been hit hard, posting a 6.53 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP over five starts. The third-place Diamondbacks (38-36) are battling to stay above .500, but their staff anchor has struggled to find consistency since returning from a shoulder contusion earlier this spring. Despite the slump, he remains active and locked in at the top of Arizona's rotation.
Gallen's current 5.85 ERA and 1.59 WHIP through 15 starts are a far cry from his career norm, including his stellar 3.65 ERA in 2023. Our models project him to settle into a more respectable 4.14 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 176.0 innings for the rest of the season. While his strikeout rate is down, expect positive regression toward his career baselines as his elevated hit rate stabilizes.
For the remainder of this week, Gallen is scheduled for a single home start on June 20 against the Twins. He will match up against Taj Bradley, who brings a solid 4.14 ERA to the mound. Given Gallen's recent struggles and our model's projection of a 5.40 ERA for this outing, fantasy managers should exercise caution and Sit him in shallower formats.
Updated 3 days ago
