Outlook Jared Jones
Jared Jones battles post-IL inconsistency ahead of a risky Coors Field matchup.
State of the Union: Jared Jones has flashed elite velocity since returning from a long IL stint, but his results remain uneven with a 6.32 ERA over his last four starts. He currently slots in as a back-end starter for the fourth-place Pirates, who are riding a two-game win streak. Jones is coming off a rough June 15 outing where he yielded five runs in four innings.
Under the Hood (ROS): His recent 1.64 WHIP indicates too much traffic, but our models project him to settle down and finish the year with a solid 4.05 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. This aligns with his strong 2024 rookie baseline where he posted a 1.21 WHIP and a stellar 9.92 K/9. Trust his high-strikeout upside long-term as his command stabilizes.
The Week Ahead & Verdict: Jones is scheduled to start on June 21 at Colorado. While opponent Michael Lorenzen has a highly vulnerable 7.38 ERA, pitching in the thin air of Coors Field is incredibly dangerous for a young pitcher still finding his command. We recommend benching him in this high-risk environment. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 3 days ago
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Outlook Casey Mize
Casey Mize returns from the injured list but faces a temporary sit with no remaining starts this week.
The fourth-place Tigers activated Casey Mize from the injured list on Wednesday, slotting him straight back into their starting rotation. In his return start against the Astros, Mize pitched 4.2 innings, allowing three runs on six hits with three strikeouts. With Detroit currently sitting at 30-44, the team is easing their former top pick back into action.
Prior to his injury, Mize was enjoying a breakout campaign in 2026, pitching to a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Our models project some regression rest-of-season, forecasting a 4.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 151 innings. However, his improved strikeout rate before the IL stint suggests he can outperform those baseline expectations if he stays healthy.
Having started on Wednesday, Mize has no scheduled starts remaining for the rest of this week as Detroit hosts the division-rival White Sox. Because his weekly volume is tapped out, he should be benched in active lineups. He remains a highly rosterable asset in most leagues for his upside once his pitch count ramps back up.
Updated 3 days ago
