Outlook Ildemaro Vargas
Vargas Cold Spell Deepens Following Scary Collision
Ildemaro Vargas has gone completely ice-cold, failing to record a hit in his last eight at-bats and batting just .100 over his last 14 days. This slump closely followed a scary June 4th collision that left him with rib and thigh bruises, though he has managed to avoid the injured list. With Carlos Santana sidelined, Vargas remains the primary everyday starter at first base for the third-place Diamondbacks.
While Vargas was the talk of baseball following his historic 27-game hitting streak and April Player of the Month honors, regression has hit him hard. He is still batting a solid .275 on the year, but our models project him to hit closer to .246 over the rest of the season. Expect his elite early-season average to continue normalizing toward his career baselines, meaning his current slump is a harsh correction rather than a permanent collapse.
Arizona finishes the week with four road games, including matchups against vulnerable Cincinnati starters Nick Lodolo and Rhett Lowder, who both carry ERAs over 5.00. Despite these highly favorable matchups, Vargas's active slump and virtually non-existent walk rate make him too risky to start right now. Bench him until he shows signs of snapping out of his current funk. Verdict: Sit.
Updated 2 days ago
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Outlook Jac Caglianone
Jac Caglianone is tearing the cover off the ball as the Royals' hot-hitting right fielder.
Caglianone has been on an absolute tear, batting .447 over his last 14 days and a scorching .667 over his last seven days. Despite a brief scare with shoulder soreness on June 6, he returned to swat two home runs on June 9 and collect four hits on June 10. He is locked in as the primary starting right fielder for the fourth-place Royals, who currently sit at 28-40.
While his current hot streak is elite, our projections of a .236 average and 14 home runs suggest significant regression to the mean is coming. However, his jump from a .157 average in 2025 to a .275 mark in 2026 in our data shows real growth, suggesting his high-end power output is here to stay.
The rest of the week features a matchup against Kumar Rocker of Texas, followed by a three-game series against Houston. He gets to feast on high-ERA pitchers Tatsuya Imai (5.24 ERA) and Mike Burrows (5.77 ERA) before a tough Sunday test against Spencer Arrighetti. He remains a must-start option in all formats.
Updated 2 days ago
