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Aaron Nola or Cade Cavalli

Who Should I Start? - Week 12 • Start New
Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

SPPhiladelphia Phillies PHI
Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli

SPWashington Nationals WAS
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Nola over Cavalli

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola returns from paternity leave in fine form, setting up a highly favorable two-start week.

Aaron Nola immediately delivered after being reinstated from the paternity list on June 2, striking out eight over five innings in a win against San Diego. His return stabilizes the rotation for the second-place Phillies, who currently hold a 32-29 record. Over his last two starts, Nola has been spectacular, flashing a 3.27 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP.

Though a rough May bloated his 30-day ERA to 6.54, Nola's recent precision matches his career baseline. Our models project a stable 4.15 ERA and 1.24 WHIP rest-of-season, backed by 120 projected strikeouts. Trust his track record over the prior month's blip as his elite control is returning.

As a two-start arm this week, Nola faces the White Sox on Sunday after already defeating the Padres. He draws David Sandlin, who carries a porous 8.10 ERA, making this a highly favorable matchup to close out the week. Run him out there as a confident Start.

Updated 1 day ago

Latest News Aaron Nola
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Cavalli over Nola

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Cade Cavalli

Cade Cavalli maintains strong strikeout upside as the rotation's undisputed anchor heading into a weekend matchup in Arizona.

Cade Cavalli serves as the staff anchor for the third-place Nationals (31-32) amid a wave of rotation injuries to players like Jake Irvin. Over his last 14 days, the right-hander has been outstanding, logging a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 22 strikeouts across 18.0 innings. Despite the team's current three-game losing streak, his role as the top starter is completely locked in.

While our season projection of a 4.20 ERA and 1.34 WHIP suggests regression, Cavalli's actual 3.73 ERA and elite 10.61 K/9 through 62.8 innings indicate his step forward is legitimate. The increased velocity and sharp breaking stuff he has showcased all year make his high-strikeout output sustainable, even if his walk rate creates occasional traffic.

This week represents a two-start opportunity, with his remaining outing coming on June 7th on the road against Michael Soroka and the Diamondbacks. Soroka has been solid with a 3.49 ERA, but Cavalli's immense strikeout upside makes him a highly viable option to close out the weekly matchup. Verdict: Start.

Updated 1 day ago

Latest News Cade Cavalli
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Performance Aaron Nola
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.600-000800.801
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.271-0001300.642
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Cade Cavalli
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.600-000631.601
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
2.451-0001351.362
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Aaron Nola
OWN
59%
+7.95 compared to last week
START
32%
+4.05 compared to last week
OWN/START Cade Cavalli
OWN
59%
+9.95 compared to last week
START
26%
+0.27 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Aaron Nola
99th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Cade Cavalli
80th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Aaron Nola

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 100th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 113th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • He has been under achieving. Look for him to bounce back.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 136th in WHIP with 1.50
  • Currently ranked 159th in ERA with 6.28
  • Currently ranked 176th in wins with 2
  • His average points in the past two weeks have increased by 3.7 PPG. If you don't have the confidence he can keep it up, then trade him for a sure thing.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +2, L: -3, WHIP: -0.136, ERA: -0.719, K's: +12, Walks: +2
Breakdown Cade Cavalli

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 81st among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 44th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • You have to be impressed by how much better he is performing. Can he keep this up or is it a fluke?
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Currently ranked 132nd in WHIP with 1.47
  • Top 75 in ERA and is currently ranked 69th with 3.86
  • Top 75 in walks and is currently ranked 53rd with 19
  • Top 50 in strikeouts and is currently ranked 44th with 66
  • Currently ranked 114th in wins with 3
  • His average points in the past two weeks have increased by 2.3 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +3, L: +3, WHIP: +1.43, ERA: +3.64, K's: +74, Walks: +24
Next Up Health Check
Injury Aaron Nola

No Injury Reported

Injury Cade Cavalli

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Aaron Nola
DateOpponentResult
Jun 02VS SDJose AlvaradoW 3-2
Jun 03VS SDCristopher SanchezW 3-2
Jun 04VS SDZack WheelerW 6-4
Jun 05VS CHWAnthony Kay
Jun 06VS CHWSean Burke
Jun 07VS CHWDavid Sandlin
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.271-0001300.642
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Cade Cavalli
DateOpponentResult
Jun 01VS MIASandy AlcantaraL 3-7
Jun 02VS MIAJohn KingL 3-7
Jun 03VS MIAMax MeyerL 1-4
Jun 05@ARIMerrill Kelly
Jun 06@ARIEduardo Rodriguez
Jun 07@ARIMichael Soroka
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
3.530-0001041.272
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Aaron Nola
9.50
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Cade Cavalli
10.07
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Aaron Nola
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2015 PHI 13 77.2 1117 68 19 0 6-2 3.59 1.2 7.9 188
2016 PHI 20 111.0 1796 121 29 0 6-9 4.95 1.32 9.8 263
2017 PHI 27 168.0 2665 184 49 0 12-11 3.54 1.21 9.9 451
2018 PHI 33 210.0 3212 224 58 0 17-6 2.4 0.99 9.6 632
2019 PHI 34 200.0 3332 229 80 0 12-7 3.92 1.28 10.3 500
2020 PHI 11 65.1 1060 84 23 0 5-5 3.44 1.13 11.6 176
2021 PHI 32 182.1 2971 223 39 0 9-9 4.59 1.12 11 427
2022 PHI 35 219.0 3256 246 29 0 12-14 3.45 0.98 10.1 547
2023 PHI 36 212.0 3427 225 49 0 15-10 4.33 1.16 9.6 512
2024 PHI 34 202.0 3275 205 52 0 14-9 3.74 1.22 9.1 496
2025 PHI 18 96.1 1599 100 28 0 5-10 5.89 1.33 9.3 159
2026 PHI 12 61.2 1066 64 18 0 3-4 5.55 1.39 9.3 113
ON PACE 31 160 2785 167 47 0 7-10 5.55 1.39 9.3 296
3-YEAR AVG 29 169 2767 177 43 0 11-10 4.39 1.22 9.4 389
Career 305 1791.1 28776 1973 473 0 0-0 3.97 1.17 9.9
Career Cade Cavalli
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2022 WAS 1 5.0 99 6 2 0 0-1 12.6 1.6 10.8 -1
2025 WAS 10 48.2 788 40 15 0 3-1 4.25 1.48 7.4 94
2026 WAS 13 64.2 1100 74 24 0 3-3 3.62 1.42 10.3 146
ON PACE 33 166 2828 190 61 0 7-7 3.62 1.42 10.3 376
3-YEAR AVG 3 16 263 13 5 0 1-0 4.41 1.47 7.2 31
Career 24 116.0 1987 120 41 0 0-0 4.34 1.48 9.3
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RECENT DECISIONS

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Player News

Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs WAS 09:40 EDT EST Merrill Kelly
Foster Griffin
ATH @HOU 08:10 EDT EST Jack Perkins
Peter Lambert
ATL vs PIT 07:15 EDT EST Martin Perez
Mitch Keller
BAL @TOR 07:07 EDT EST Brandon Young
Trey Yesavage
BOS @NYY 07:05 EDT EST Sonny Gray
Ryan Weathers
CHC vs SF 02:20 EDT EST Edward Cabrera
Robbie Ray
CHW @PHI 06:40 EDT EST Anthony Kay
Jesus Luzardo
CIN @STL 08:15 EDT EST Brady Singer
Kyle Leahy
CLE @TEX 08:15 EDT EST Parker Messick
Kumar Rocker
COL vs MIL 08:40 EDT EST Ryan Feltner
Brandon Sproat
DET vs SEA 06:40 EDT EST Framber Valdez
Bryan Woo
KC @MIN 08:15 EDT EST Michael Wacha
Zebby Matthews
LAA @LAD 10:10 EDT EST Reid Detmers
Roki Sasaki
MIA vs TB 07:10 EDT EST Ryan Gusto
Drew Rasmussen
NYM @SD 09:40 EDT EST Christian Scott
Michael King
Matchup Time
NY @SA 8:30 PM EST
Matchup Time
No games scheduled