Race for the No. 1 Pick in the NFL Draft: Where do the Raiders, Commanders, Jets, and More Stand?

Through 12 weeks, nine NFL teams have three or fewer wins. (The Monday night game is between the 6-5 Panthers and the 7-4 49ers, so that stat won't change.)

The race for the No. 1 pick starts early for some teams, but now that we have reached Thanksgiving week, we have a clear picture of the franchises that are going to be picking in the top 10. Fans of teams like the Titans and Raiders are already thinking ahead to April.

Most teams have six games remaining, and things will change. Some of the worst teams still play each other, so someone almost has to win (while ties happen, I'm often operating as if one won't occur the rest of the way because they are rare). There will also be upsets and teams that break their fans' hearts by winning on the final day of the season to lose draft position.

Let's look at the teams currently sitting at three or fewer wins and their path toward the top pick. We will quickly hit the three-win teams and focus more on the five groups with either one or two wins. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Three-Win Teams

Arizona Cardinals

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Washington Commanders

Each of these four franchises has a 3-8 record, having already had their bye. That's the good news, as they have six chances remaining for wins, but none of the four are going anywhere this season.

All four also have an injured starting quarterback who is expected to return this season, and at least in Cincinnati and Washington's case, that would mean a better chance at winning games. It's questionable as to who the best QB is for both Arizona and Cleveland right now, so the status of the starter is less important.

Arizona has remaining home games against the Rams and Falcons while traveling to play the Bucs, Texans, Bengals, and Rams again. There's probably one or two wins in there on paper, and a team with a decent roster (like the Cardinals) should be able to stay above the worst record.

Cincinnati could get Joe Burrow back for a Thanksgiving-night matchup in Baltimore, something that would obviously help, but the Bengals are this bad because of the defense, not the offense. Cincy visits the Ravens, Bills, and Dolphins while hosting Baltimore, Arizona, and Cleveland. The Bengals are likely to win a few games with Burrow back, keeping them from the top pick.

Cleveland had their chance at solidifying their draft position but instead beat up on the Raiders on Sunday, the most consequential game of the week for the purpose of draft standing. The Browns host the 49ers, Titans, Bills, and Steelers while playing road games in Chicago and Cincinnati. The Browns have a good enough defense that they could back into a few wins, and their Week 12 victory puts them on the fringe of the race for the top pick.

Washington had their bye this week and will evaluate Jayden Daniels on a week-to-week basis as they return to action. His presence in the lineup would likely lead to a few wins: the Commanders play home games against Denver, Philadelphia, and Dallas while visiting the Vikings, Giants, and Eagles.

Two-Win Teams

Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)

I mentioned above that the Raiders lost to the Browns on Sunday, the best possible thing for their draft hopes. Vegas beat the Patriots in the opening week (how funny does that look now?) and then took down the Titans in Week 7.

Their remaining games are at home against the Broncos, Giants, and Chiefs and on the road against the Chargers, Eagles, and Texans. Only the Giants have a losing record, and the Broncos, Chargers, and Eagles are all currently in playoff position (with the Chiefs and Texans each one game out).

A likely outcome would be the Raiders winning either zero or one game the rest of the way. The team that finished with the top pick had exactly three wins in four of the past five seasons, so if things work out how they should, Las Vegas is in great position for the top pick.

That game against New York is the big one and comes in Week 17. Who knows what each team will look like by then? Jaxson Dart is likely to return from a concussion by then, and the Raiders might be shifting the lineup around at that point, including benching quarterback Geno Smith. There's a clear path to an 0-6 record to finish the season.

New Orleans Saints (2-9)

New Orleans is starting rookie Tyler Shough at quarterback and has second-year player Spencer Rattler in reserve, so they have a low ceiling and floor under center the rest of the way, a good recipe for more losses. A general lack of talent on the rest of the roster only helps.

The Saints' remaining games come against the Dolphins, Bucs, Titans, and Falcons on the road and the Panthers and Jets at home. Those are winnable games, as two of the teams are on our list here, Miami and Atlanta have just four wins, and the Bucs and Panthers are both beatable.

I don't want to overrate New Orleans; they could still lose all of these games, particularly with only two of them coming at home. Shough looks OK for a rookie but still mostly below average, and he is lacking playmakers, including Alvin Kamara leaving Sunday's game with a knee injury.

I still believe in the losing power of the Saints, but with an easier schedule, they are likely to back into a few wins if nothing else. Their victories so far have come against Giants and Panthers, and we can expect any possible victory to come against a similarly low-level team.

New York Giants (2-10)

The Giants are the only team out of these nine that hasn't had their bye yet, giving them an advantage, as they have an extra loss already banked. New York is one of four teams that has their bye in Week 14, the last groups that need to sit out.

They play home games against the Commanders, Vikings, and Cowboys while visiting the Patriots and Raiders. There are a few winnable games in there, particularly if Dart comes back soon and stays healthy the rest of the season.

New York beat two playoff teams in the Chargers and Eagles, an odd fact for a team with just two wins. They have played a tougher schedule but also lost games to the Saints, Cowboys, and Commanders, and no one is confusing the Giants with a good team.

With an interim coach and a reset likely coming, there's no reason to expect big things, but Dart's return will give them a higher ceiling and could lead to a win or two against some of the lesser teams remaining on the schedule.

New York Jets (2-9)

What's better than one New York team at the bottom of the league? Two New York teams at the bottom of the league! The Jets are in worse shape than their stadium-mates, as the Giants at least have young players with hope; the Jets traded their best players at the deadline and are in full rebuild mode.

The Jets beat the Bengals and Browns in back-to-back games (with a bye in the middle), picking up their victories against two of our other lowly teams. Their remaining contests are at home against the Falcons, Dolphins, and Patriots and on the road against Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Buffalo.

There are a few beatable teams, but the Jets are so far down, and without Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, they lost two of their best players on either side of the ball. New York isn't going to play high-level football at any point this season.

Another win or two is likely, but the Jets should be in position to compete for the top pick. They'll be in much better draft position if they lose the next two weeks against Atlanta and Miami.

No. 1 Pick Frontrunner

Tennessee Titans (1-10)

Lastly, we have only team in football with one win, giving them pole position for the top pick for the second year in a row. While many of the teams we talked about would likely take a quarterback at the top, Tennessee just drafted Cameron Ward last year, and though he hasn't been great, they surely wouldn't give up on him that quickly.

That would leave the option for the Titans to trade down and add a haul of valuable draft picks, something this roster could desperately use given the dearth of talent. It truly is in Tennessee's best interest to simply lose the rest of their games.

The Titans still host the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Saints and go on the road to play the Browns, 49ers, and Jaguars. Their one victory came against the Cardinals in Week 5 in a game in which Arizona was up 21-6 in the fourth quarter but blew the lead, allowing for a 22-21 Tennessee victory. The Titans should probably be winless right now.

The remaining schedule still presents a few winnable games, but Tennessee isn't accidentally 1-10; they could be the worst team in football. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them go winless the rest of the way, and if they do, they will be rewarded with the top pick in the draft.