Who Should You Start: Week 15 Featuring Jake Browning vs Trevor Lawrence & Ty Chandler vs Kenneth Walker
A look at various critical start/sit decisions facing owners in Week 15
The best time of the season is when NFL games expand to Saturday. I’m not much of a college football fan, so that’s part of it, but it also means the season is getting to its most intense time. Every game could be the difference between the playoffs and losing a job, so most teams are locked in (not the Chargers, obviously).
Let’s look at some of the guys taking the field today that have shown up a lot on FantasySP’s start/sit tool. Most of these players are either unproven or have a good/bad matchup inflating/dropping their value. Our fantastic Morgan Rode previously looked at some of the players owners are mulling over, and that information will be invaluable when making your Week 15 decisions.
Most stats are from Team Rankings or ESPN.
Quarterbacks
Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals
The Vikings have been middle-of-the-road against the pass, but they dominate the run game, meaning the Bengals may look to throw more. Browning has been a pleasant surprise for Cincinnati after Joe Burrow went down for the season.
Browning has been a top-five fantasy QB the last two weeks against poor pass defenses. Minnesota has a better pass defense than either Jacksonville or Indianapolis. Browning isn’t a bad choice if you’re without your quarterback (Justin Herbert, anyone?), but I prefer Jordan Love as a streamer.
Browning this week has often been considered by owners against Trevor Lawrence, Joe Flacco, Baker Mayfield, and Tua Tagovailoa. Tua is hard to bench, but the Jets are one of the best pass defenses in the league, and Tyreek Hill will be limited if he plays at all. It's a risk, but I want to sit Tua this week if I can.
I would rather go with Browning than Flacco or Mayfield, and Lawrence has a terrible matchup with Baltimore; I’m benching Lawrence in almost all scenarios. Browning has shown he can do it and has weapons to help him, so I trust him more than the other four guys in Week 15.
Nick Mullens, Minnesota Vikings
Mullens hasn’t really played all season. He got 13 attempts last week after replacing Joshua Dobbs, but this will be the first time we will see the veteran quarterback after preparing to play. That alone is enough to be leery. He also hasn’t had real playing time since 2020; I’m staying away.
The matchup is sweet, so I can understand those banking on a serviceable day. Cincinnati has given up the sixth-most passing yards per game and second-most yards per attempt this season. Justin Jefferson is expected back, so Mullens should have his superstar receiver after another injury scare last week.
Mullens is a player to consider, but I’d rather have the other two guys listed here or a streamer like Love or Matthew Stafford, who has a great matchup.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Wilson’s season has been a little up and down, and his value has been felt more in real football than in fantasy. He’s only been a top-10 QB twice (according to Fantasy Pros) and has finished most weeks in the teens at his position in fantasy.
Detroit’s season-long numbers are better, but over the last three weeks they have allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game and fifth-most yards per attempt. They have given up nearly 30 points per game in the five games since their Week 9 bye.
Wilson and the Broncos look better the last month than at any other point in the season while the Lions have gone the other way. I like Wilson to have a good game here, likely throwing a few touchdowns.
Running Backs
Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati has had a rough go of it on defense in 2023. On top of their issues against the pass, the Bengals have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game and third-most yards per attempt.
Alexander Mattison is out, giving Chandler the opportunity to lead the backfield. Chandler had double-digit Standard fantasy points in two of the three games in which he had at least 10 touches. This is a chance for Chandler to get a starter’s workload against a poor defense.
Chandler is an RB2 with top-10 upside if his team can move the ball. Mullens stepping in at quarterback may complicate things, but the running game is likely to be the team’s focus. Chandler should be a safe option for volume if nothing else.
Chandler is showing up maybe more than any other player in the start/sit tool this week. Owners are considering him against guys like Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Etienne; those are bigger names than Chandler, but they all have tough matchups against the Falcons, Eagles, and Ravens, respectively. Etienne may be impossible to sit for some owners, but Chandler has more upside this week than Hubbard or Walker (or a lot of other guys).
I'm comfortable starting Chandler unless I have a lineup of guys like McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert that will never sit.
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts
Moss ran wild at the beginning of the season when Jonathan Taylor was out recovering from injury and fighting for a new contract. In four games between Weeks 2-5, Moss had 70 or more rushing yards every game (122 and 165 in two of them) and scored five total touchdowns.
He has gotten into the end zone twice since Week 6 and had four games with at least 50 rushing yards, but he hasn’t topped 66 and never approached his early season heights. The matchup is middling for Moss this week, as the Steelers are near league average (or slightly worse) in rush yards allowed per game and per attempt.
The story is the same in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. Taylor will miss the game, and the volume should be there, but I see it more likely Moss performs at a flex level than hitting the RB1 heights from his first month. Consider Moss against the rest of your roster and value him as a mid-level flex.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon has been extremely consistent but has failed to reach big highs: he had over 50 rushing yards in nine of 13 games but hasn’t hit 90 yards in any game. Getting into the end zone has been Mixon’s greatest skill, as he’s scored in six of seven games since the Week 7 bye.
Minnesota has been shutting down every run game they’ve faced. The Vikes allow the fifth-least rushing yards per game and fourth-least per attempt. They have only allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs (tied for third-least in the league) and just one through the air.
Mixon will touch the ball, and the chance of a touchdown is always present, but this will be one of his toughest weeks of the season to find space to run. He’s still an RB2, but Mixon’s floor is lower this week than in most others.
A game with 13 carries for 36 yards (or something close) is very possible, and it’s worth seeing if you have other great matchups or some kind of option to consider sitting Mixon.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Sutton has been on fire: he’s scored in 10 of 13 games, including seven of the last eight and nine of the last 11. We already touched on the struggles Detroit has had stopping the pass recently. This is one of the better matchups on the Saturday slate.
In every game since their Week 9 bye, the top receiver against the Lions has scored a touchdown and/or gone over 100 yards. This is a team bleeding yards to the guys who are the focus of the pass game.
Sutton is a WR2 without a ton of upside, but he feels fairly safe in this one. I doubt he will fall below flex-level production in Week 15.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Johnson has scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks, but he’s been touchdown dependent all season, with nearly half his games under 50 yards and none over 90. Mitchell Trubisky under center doesn’t spark a lot of confidence, though he has had a connection with Johnson the last few weeks.
Indianapolis is below average against the pass and has allowed the 10th-most yards per pass attempt, but they aren’t inept like Washington. There is too much risk for me here of a two-catch, 27-yard performance. I’d rather have a player with a better matchup, like Sutton.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (Minnesota) and Sam LaPorta (Detroit) are must-start players. The only other guy on Saturday I would consider is Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth, who has a great matchup against the Colts.
#start-sit
