The Case For Bilal Powell as a Top 15 RB
Once the Jets’ season was essentially over, when they were 3-9, they decided to give backup running back Bilal Powell more carries. Obviously, they needed to change something, because whatever they were doing wasn’t working.
Powell took this chance and ran with it (Ok, ok, it’s not that funny), running for 411 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last 4 games of the season.
Receiving Prowess
However, Powell is not just an incredibly efficient runner. He also is a significant receiving threat out of the backfield.
Here is a chart of the 10 RBs with most receptions last season:
|
Rank |
Name |
Receptions |
|
1 |
80 |
|
|
2 |
Le’Veon Bell |
75 |
|
3 |
James White |
60 |
|
4 |
Bilal Powell |
58 |
|
5 |
Devonta Freeman |
54 |
|
6 |
DeMarco Murray |
53 |
|
6 |
Theo Riddick |
53 |
|
6 |
53 |
|
|
9 |
Darren Sproles |
52 |
|
10 |
LeSean McCoy |
50 |
|
10 |
T.J. Yeldon |
50 |
David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and James White, the three backs ahead of Powell, all got a significant number of touches the whole season, as well as played significant time split out as receivers, making this even more impressive.
21 of those receptions came in the last 4 weeks. Projected out over a whole season, he would have 84 receptions, which would have ranked best of all running backs last season.
Powell also received 74 targets, which was good for 4th as well, behind the same three and tied with Duke Johnson.
Lack of Competition
Matt Forte is now on the wrong side of 30. He had 218 carries last year, and he was 30 years old. The running backs over 30 who have had a 200+ carry season followed by a season of at least 150 carries are as follows: Frank Gore, Frank Gore, and… Frank Gore.
To say the least, it is very uncommon for a running back to be successful while over the age of 30, even if they have been successful before.
Additionally, Powell out touched Forte 105 to 8 in the last 4 games in 2016. It is apparent that the Jets have finally started to move towards Powell as their starter.
Efficiency
Over all of 2016, Powell averaged 5.5 YPC on 131 carries. Here is the list of running backs with at least 100 carries who averaged more YPC: Mike Gillislee. The end.
The impressive part about this statistic is that the Jets’ quarterback position was atrocious last season to the tune of the worst Total Quarterback Rating in the NFL (67.6), so teams were likely to stack the box against the run.
Many think that the Jets will address their quarterback problem through the draft. If they end up with one of DeShone Kizer, Deshaun Watson, or Mitch Trubisky, teams will be forced to take defenders out of the box to defend the passing game.
Also, the Jets offensive line has been really bad in recent years. It was rated as the 21st offensive line in the league according to Pro Football Focus mostly because of the breakout season of left guard James Carpenter. Other than that, the only other competent starter was right guard Brian Winters. It is likely that they will look to improve the line through free agency and the draft this offseason, and almost any change for this unit would be an improvement.
These two improvements would combine to give Powell more running room, improving his yards before contact, in which category the Jets ranked 15th last year.
What does all of this mean?
According to these data, he will finish the season anywhere from RB13 to RB16, and that’s assuming he only gets 175 carries.
If he wins the starting battle (or Forte gets traded along with Brandon Marshall and Darrelle Revis, which has been rumored), and ends up with a more bell-cow-like workload of 225 carries, he could finish as anywhere from RB8 to RB11.
According to other early rankings, Powell falls anywhere from RB24 to RB35. His current ADP is around the 5th or 6th round, and a surefire top 25 back with top 10 upside is a great value for that price. Make sure Bilal Powell is on your radar in the 5th and 6th rounds of your draft!
Sources:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/average-team-passer-rating
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-this-season/
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/rushing.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PoweBi00.htm
