Week 2 Rushing Yardage Prop Bets: Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving and More

Our prop bet tool here at FantasySP compares Vegas lines to our internal projections and finds the biggest differences that represent good props to investigate. Don't just go blindly bet everything that shows up, but this tool finds some of the numbers that are most worth looking into to find a winner.

As of Thursday afternoon, five of the top-rated props are running back rushing yard overs. J.K. Dobbins, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, Aaron Jones Sr., and Isiah Pacheco all have positive outlooks to top their rushing-yard totals according to our prop tool. Let's investigate each of these players further in Week 2 and see which ones might be worth throwing a few dollars on.

Use the FantasySP prop bet tool to find the best bets for players to go over or under their yardage, receptions, and more.

J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

• O/U: 46.5 yards
• Projection: 59 yards
• Difference: 27%

In Week 1, Dobbins had 16 carries for 63 yards, easily topping this number. Rookie RJ Harvey had six carries for 70 yards, taking one for 50 for the bulk of his yardage. It's likely we see a similar distribution of carries in Week 2, with Dobbins leading the way.

His Week 1 opponent, the Titans, were right in the middle last year in terms of yards per carry allowed. The Colts were better than average, finishing eighth in the same category. This week will theoretically be a tougher test for Dobbins.

In Week 1's shellacking of the Dolphins, Indianapolis did get gashed on the ground, giving up 6.5 yards per attempt. Lead back De'Von Achane had seven carries for 55 yards, an average of 7.9. Miami has been successful running in the past, but it's telling that Indy gave up so much rushing production even while dominating.

It could also just be a one-week random blip in a game that was never close in the second half. Our projections see Dobbins getting 16 carries again. With that volume, he would only need to average 2.9 yards per carry to reach 46.5 yards. The big question is whether you think he'll keep getting the rock.

Advice: I like this bet. I also believe Dobbins will get the football and lead the backfield ahead of the rookie Harvey. There's value here, especially based on what we saw in Week 1. Four out of five stars.

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

• O/U: 54.5 yards
• Projection: 68.1 yards
• Difference: 25%

Hampton's first game was a success simply by the fact that he received 15 carries while veteran Najee Harris had just one. It could be that Harris isn't as game-ready as he will be after missing much of the offseason, but it's telling that Hampton took essentially every carry. He finished with 48 yards on just 3.2 per attempt.

It was a mixed bag for the Raiders' rush D in Week 1: veteran Rhamondre Stevenson ran seven times for 15 yards, just 2.1 per attempt, but rookie TreVeyon Henderson took five carries for 27 yards, 5.4 per attempt. Last year, Vegas was right in the middle in yards per rush allowed.

Our projections see Hampton getting 15.3 carries, right about the same as in the first game. At that rate, he would need to average 3.6 yards per carry to reach his total. Last week's opponent, Kansas City, allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt last season, which might explain Hampton's low efficiency.

Assuming he will continue at such volume and that he'll perform better is risky, even against a theoretically better matchup. If Harris is destined to take over more carries, even a small chunk, that will lower Hampton's ceiling.

Advice: There's enough uncertainty here to make me stay away from this bet; others on this list are better. Two out of five stars.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans

• O/U: 61.5 yards
• Projection: 81.5 yards
• Difference: 33%

The final three backs on our list have one of the biggest differences on the tool right now, expecting 33% more yards than their total line according to our projections. That's a sizeable difference and something to take notice of every time it comes up.

Irving was seen as one of the top fantasy running backs coming into the season, so it's easy to want to think “over” most games. Week 1 was a tough one, though, as Irving gained just 37 yards on 14 carries, 2.6 yards per attempt. His opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, was middling against the run last year, but they made changes in the offseason that could bump their production; it's too early to know.

Houston was better-than-average last year against the run, allowing the 11th-fewest yards per attempt. In Week 1, Kyren Williams of the Rams took 18 carries for 66 yards (and a touchdown), 3.7 yards per attempt.

Our projections see Irving getting about 17 carries. At that volume, he would need to average 3.6 yards per attempt. Last year, Irving averaged 5.4, more than double his Week 1 average. I'm willing to believe the larger stats rather than a one-game sample.

Advice: I would pick the over here, but I'm not confident enough to make a bet. Houston has a really good defense, and Tampa Bay has a new offensive coordinator, so it's worth watching to see how things progress before laying down money. Two-and-a-half out of five stars.

Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons

• O/U: 35.5 yards
• Projection: 47.2 yards
• Difference: 33%

The biggest obstacle for Jones hitting this number is the presence of Jordan Mason. Minnesota traded for the fourth-year back from the 49ers, and he led the backfield in Week 1: Mason had 15 carries for 68 yards, and Jones had eight carries for 23 yards. On top of out-producing the veteran, Mason just looked better running the ball, faster and stronger than Jones.

Jones averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in that first contest against a Bears team that gave up 4.5 to Mason and was the fourth-worst team in terms of yards per carry allowed last season. That's not a promising outlook, especially after seeing his average carry fall over each of the past two seasons.

We project Jones to get 10.4 carries, meaning he'd need to average 3.4 yards per carry to reach his total. The question is whether he will still be due that large of a carry share if Mason keeps outplaying him.

Advice: I don't like this one because it seems Jones is trending the wrong direction. Seeing his impact fall over the past few years then having a poor game in Week 1 isn't giving me good vibes for an over bet. One out of five stars.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• O/U: 35.5 yards
• Projection: 47.1 yards
• Difference: 33%

Kansas City abandoned the run in Week 1. They threw the ball 39 times, Patrick Mahomes scrambled six times, and the running backs only got 10 carries. Pacheco gained 25 yards, 5.0 per carry. More than anything else, Pacheco falling short in the first game was about opportunity.

Week 2's matchup is a tougher one against the Eagles. Philadelphia was in the top 10 in least rushing yards per attempt allowed last season. The raw numbers from Week 1 make it look like the Cowboys ran all over the Eagles: 119 yards, 5.4 per attempt, two touchdowns. In reality, though, one long 49-yard run inflates the numbers, and the two scores were both short-yardage plunges, one after a short field.

Outside of that big 49-yard run, Dallas backs averaged 3.2 yards per attempt and were mostly held ineffective on the day. The Eagles will also have Jalen Carter back for this game after he was ejected from Week 1 for spitting on an opponent. That is another mark against big rushing numbers.

In last year's Super Bowl against these same Eagles, Kansas City similarly abandoned the run, getting just seven rush attempts from their backs, three from Pacheco. On top of that, Pacheco and Kareem Hunt split the carries in Week 1; Pacheco won't even get full-time carries.

Advice: Stay away from this one. A guy with an inconsistent role against a tough matchup doesn't portend good things. This is too risky of a bet. One out of five stars.