Joe Mixon to Start Season on NFI: Fantasy Football Implications for Nick Chubb and More

Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon officially will not be activated from the non-football injury list (NFI) before the Tuesday deadline. This means he will miss at least the first four games of the season. Unsurprisingly, this move comes with massive fantasy football implications. 

With Mixon out, the Texans' backfield is comprised of the uninspiring trio of Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, and Woody Marks. Is there fantasy value to be found with one or more of these players? And is Mixon even draftable anymore? Let's break it down.

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Joe Mixon Fantasy Football Value

Let's start with the man of the hour, as my take on Mixon is simple: Don't draft him. Yes, he was a fantasy RB1 last season, even while Houston's offense floundered. If he manages to return and provide that level of production down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs, no one will remember that he missed all of September.

The issue is that the outcome where Mixon returns and is his old self seems exceedingly unlikely at this point. People with connections to the Texans have been hinting all offseason that Mixon's foot/ankle injury was worse than the team was letting on. The fact that he is being left on NFI is the latest in a series of signs that they were right.

As we reach the later rounds of fantasy drafts, Mixon does eventually become a viable option, especially in leagues with IR slots. However, I think name recognition will keep him from falling far enough in most drafts. I don't recommend touching him until well into the double-digit rounds of your draft, at which point he will likely be long gone. 

Texans Backfield: Nick Chubb vs. Dameon Pierce vs. Woody Marks

With Mixon out, someone has to carry the ball for the Texans. Let's take a look at the candidates currently on their roster. 

First up, we have Chubb, who was a perennial fantasy RB1 and arguably the league's best pure rusher just a few years ago. Unfortunately, things change fast in the NFL, especially for running backs. Chubb has suffered multiple severe injuries and wasn't himself the last time we saw him on an NFL field. Based on Demeco Ryan's assessment of his preseason performance, we won't be seeing prime Nick Chubb, or anything close, this season. 

Pierce broke onto the fantasy scene with over 900 rushing yards in just 13 games as a rookie. Unfortunately, he was a terrible fit for Bobby Slowik's zone-based running scheme and plummeted down the Texans' depth chart as a result. Perhaps he could return to form under new OC Nick Caley, but even at his peak, he was never more than a roughly replacement-level two-down grinder.

The most exciting candidate to win this job is Marks, a fourth-round rookie out of USC. Marks is theoretically the best pass-catcher of this trio, and he brings the unknown upside that comes with all rookies. On the other hand, Marks' profile as a rusher was unimpressive, and he might not even have passed up Dare Ogunbowale on the team's depth chart yet.  

So, should you just avoid this backfield entirely? I'm tempted to say yes, as there's more to be wary of than to like here. However, we know that chasing ambiguous backfields is one of the best ways to find value late in fantasy football drafts. 

There is a scenario where, with Mixon sidelined, this is an ugly committee, and no one provides consistent production. This is especially likely if the aforementioned Ogunbowale continues mixing in on passing downs. But if someone does manage to consolidate a lead role in this backfield, that player is essentially guaranteed to return value. 

With this in mind, all three of Chubb, Marks, and Pierce are viable dart throws late in drafts. Personally, I recommend targeting either Chubb or Marks. Chubb seems to have the inside track to leading the group in carries to start the season, while Marks has a higher ceiling thanks to his pass-catching ability and unknown true talent level. Especially if we're sticking with the theory that Mixon may not factor in at all this season, don't be afraid to take a shot on one of these guys late in drafts.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.