Fantasy Football Draft Busts: Which Positions are Safest, Most Volatile?

This week, I went through the last three seasons for each offensive fantasy football position to find identify players who busted relative to their draft status. You can find each of those investigations below:

Quarterback Busts

Running Back Busts

Wide Receiver Busts

Tight End Busts

After looking at each position individually, I thought it was important to compare the numbers to see if any group was more or less likely than the rest to be dependable on a yearly basis. The results might not necessarily be surprising, but they prove the volatility of the skill positions.

In the articles linked above, I ignored players who lost the bulk of their season to injury; I wanted to see why players busted if they stayed healthy to try to identify warning signs. In this exercise, though, I am including all players who disappointed, including the injured. This is more about total numbers and the dependability of each position.

I looked at the top 20 drafted quarterbacks and tight ends and the top 40 running backs and wide receivers, twice as many of each position as we traditionally start in a 10-team league. Going any further with QBs and TEs would be a fruitless exercise, as very few guys lower than 20th will ever be drafted.

Let’s look at some numbers related to the bust exercise and see if we can find any trends related to how much we can trust each position. All data is from the last three seasons and in PPR format. The numbers in each table are the totals over the full three-year span.

Top 10 Busts

The purest comparison we can make is among the top 10 drafted players at each position. An average of 2.3 top 10 quarterbacks and tight ends busted each year, while backs were at 4.7 and receivers 4. The RBs and WRs busted about twice as much as QBs and TEs.

Top 20 Busts

This includes every player in the top 20 who busted, not just 11-20. Quarterbacks averaged 6 busts per year, running backs 8.3, receivers 7.3, and tight ends 4.7. The difference between the QB/TEs and the RB/WRs is less pronounced, not really a surprise.

Quarterbacks and tight ends drafted between 11-20th at the position are non-starters in many leagues and streamers at best. The backs and receivers 11-20th are guys you are counting on every week and more likely to become top 10 players at their position.

The following table includes only running backs and wide receivers.

Top 30 and Top 40 Busts

At both levels, there are a few more guys busting at running back, but it’s close. This makes sense because there are 32 starting backs and 64 starting receivers (in theory; these numbers are different depending on team philosophies). More receivers get opportunities to be fantasy contributors than running backs, so more players have a chance to play up to their draft status.

Among the top 30, 12.7 running backs busted per year and 11.7 wide receivers. In the top 40, RBs were at 15.3 and WRs 13.7.

Takeaways

Though running backs and wide receivers bust more often, you’re still going to take them earlier in fantasy drafts because of the value versus the other positions. Even if you knew who the top kicker and defense would be this season, it would be silly to pick them in the fourth and fifth rounds because they don’t score above their position-mates to the same level as the skill players.

The guys among the top quarterbacks and tight ends are relatively safe in comparison. That could lead you to think that getting one of those QBs before they’re gone is essential, but I see it as proof that we can wait and get one of the guys near the bottom of that group.

That allows you to get the top backs and receivers you think are most dependable while still having the chance to get a top 10 player at the safer positions later because those players don’t get drafted until the mid-to-late rounds.

This doesn’t do much to change my draft strategy. More injuries generally happen at running back and wide receiver, so more players are going to bust. That’s why I prefer to load up on those positions while waiting for better value at quarterback and tight end.

Getting two guys at one or both of those positions greatly increases your chances of finding a successful player and can be done late in the draft. If you don’t end up with a reliable option, QB and TE are easier positions at which to stream and/or find a weekly contributor in free agency.

Busts Per Year by Position

I’ll leave you with this last table, simply showing the total number of players who busted each year. These numbers include the top 20 quarterbacks and tight ends and the top 40 running backs and wide receivers; that’s why the numbers are so much higher at the latter positions.