SANTA CLARA, CA - DECEMBER 11: San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates a touchdown in the second quarter of an NFL game between the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on December 11, 2022, at Levi’s Stadium, in Santa Clara, CA. (Photo by Tony Ding/Icon Sportswire)
Is Brock Purdy the league MVP? That’s yet to be determined, but I know he’s playing at a really high level. He’s thrown for over 3,500 yards thus far this season to go along with 25 touchdowns and 138 rushing yards. The 49ers have the highest implied total on the slate, and I can’t imagine a world where they don’t beat Arizona handily. If you’re not playing Purdy, please call my office for an immediate appointment.
The Commanders are allowing the most touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks as well as the fourth most passing yards. This is a game that Los Angeles should dominate, considering Washington’s secondary has been porous all season. Moreover, Los Angeles is playing at home, and I see Stafford throwing for at least 260 yards and three touchdowns.
The Rams' secondary is very beatable, and their front struggles against mobile QBs. I think most people will be looking to play Stafford, which should keep Howell's ownership down in the low single-digits. This game has a huge chance to shoot out, and pairing Howell with two Rams offensive players might be the best course of action.
The Packers have let up tons of yardage to opposing running backs, but what I really like here is White’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. If Tampa falls behind in the game on the road, I can easily see a situation where White’s receiving numbers are gaudy, which could give him a chance to be a top-three play on the slate.
If you listen to Sean McVay, he will tell you that Williams is the engine for his team’s offense. I don’t think that’s just coach speak; I think it’s the truth. Williams has been sensational and has led a Rams resurgence this season. I expect him to get another 20 to 25 touches against Washington, and even though Washington’s run defense is respectable they let up the second-most touchdowns to opposing running backs out of the backfield.
Opportunity equals fantasy points and fantasy points equal fantasy victories. I don’t think Zeke has a great matchup against Kansas City, but I know he’s going to get a ton of opportunities with Rhamondre Stevenson likely out, which should enable success.
I could tell you that Arizona allows 9.28 yards per target. I could also tell you that they allow a 72.3% catch rate. I could also tell you that they play tons of zone coverage, which feeds right into what Deebo likes to do. But I’ll make this easy: Deebo Samuel is good at football, as are the 49ers, and I think that they are going to smash Arizona this weekend.
Whether you’re trying to win in Seasonal leagues or in DFS, you’re looking for players who have a nuclear ceiling. Nacua is that player in Week 15. Washington lets up the most receiving yards as well as the second-most receiving touchdowns. They also allow an insane 10.12 yards per target. This feels like a boom game where Puka scores about 25-30 fantasy points.
I don’t really like JuJu much as a player, but if I am looking for a cheap option at wide receiver so I can fit in as many Rams, Cowboys, and Bills as possible, he might be the answer. This is a revenge game for JuJu, who feels disrespected by how Kansas City turned on him after last season. The payback here could be profitable to all who roster him.
If you are running out a 49ers stack (which is probably one of the smartest things you can do on this slate), McBride is the perfect correlation. I am not going to worry about ownership when it comes to McBride. I am going to focus on the fact that he is the top option of a team which should be playing from behind, and I want a piece of this game.
The Texans allow the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, which is a solid stat, but what I’m really looking at here is the connection that Okonkwo is building with Will Levis. He’s had at least five targets in the last four out of five games. In his last three games, he’s had 45 receiving yards or more. He’s dirt cheap, and I like him as an under-the-radar play.
Sometimes, I pick players based on statistics, other times based on actionable data, and occasionally I pick based on a hunch. One of my biggest hunches all season has been the Rams’ ineptitude against opposing tight ends. I was on Jake Ferguson when he scored against the Rams; I was on Isaiah Likely when he scored against the Rams; I am now on Logan Thomas to score as well.
