March Madness Day 2 Betting Notes
Comparing gambling facts related to spreads and totals over the first two days of the NCAA men's tournament.
The second day of the March Madness tournament followed the first in that there was a lack of true madness. We only got two real upsets and just a few close finishes. The first round is often the craziest, so it’s a little disappointing, but we still have plenty of basketball to go.
Yesterday, I looked at the results of Thursday’s games in betting terms, looking at favorite vs underdog wins, over/unders and anything else that stood out. Let’s do the same with Friday’s games and compare the results to Thursday, checking for trends between the two slates.
The full lines and results are listed at the bottom. Lines were from BetMGM.
Notes from Friday
- Of 15 games with a listed favorite, seven favorites covered and eight underdogs pulled upsets.
- The only underdog to cover but fail to win was UAB, who lost by four points to San Diego State while getting 7.5 from the spread.
- Eight games went over the listed total and eight went under.
- Three of seven favorite wins went over and four under.
- Four of eight underdog wins went over, with four going under.
- The game with even odds went over the total.
Comparison to Thursday
- Both days have seen half the games over the total and half under, not giving bettors much indication of which way to lean.
- Favorites covered 10 of 16 games on Thursday versus seven of 15 Friday. Favorites covered in about 55% of first-round games.
- Underdog wins have gone over eight times and under six times in the two days combined; favorite wins are at nine over and eight under.
- Both days have had exactly one underdog cover the spread but fail to win their game. Samford pulled off the same feat Thursday that UAB did on Friday.
What does it Mean for the Weekend?
Not much. Many of the splits come out close to even, whether it’s related to the spread or total. Every team with a double-digit spread in the first round covered that number; both Arizona (against Dayton) and Illinois (versus Duquesne) are near 10-point favorites on Saturday.
One game features two double-digit seeds facing off: No. 14 Oakland vs No. 11 NC State. It took senior guard Jack Gohlke going 10-20 from 3-point range for Oakland to take down Kentucky in the first round. NC State had four players score more than 15 points on the way to a 13-point win over Texas Tech.
Kansas and Gonzaga face each other in the second game of the day. They scored 93 and 86 points, respectively, on Thursday. The total for this game is around 151, nearly 30 points less than they combined for in the Round of 64.
I wish I had more for you. The games have just played out in a very 50-50 way so far, and there aren’t many trends or themes to find after two days of play. The more data we get, the better informed we can be about the future; maybe we’ll get more clues after another round of play.
Friday Matchups
Northwestern (+2.5) over Florida Atlanta 77-65 OT (O/U 142.5)
Baylor (-13.5) over Colgate 92-67 (O/U 138.5)
San Diego State (-7.5) over UAB 69-65 (O/U 138.5)
Marquette (-13.5) over Western Kentucky 87-69 (O/U 158.5)
Clemson (+2.5) over New Mexico 77-56 (O/U 150.5)
UConn (-26.5) over Stetson 91-52 (O/U 145.5)
Yale (+12.5) over Auburn 78-76 (O/U 140.5)
Colorado (+1.5) over Florida 102-100 (O/U 160.5)
Texas A&M (EVEN) over Nebraska 98-83 (O/U 147.5)
Duke (-11.5) over Vermont 64-47 (O/U 132.5)
Purdue (-26) over Grambling 78-50 (O/U 140.5)
Alabama (-9.5) over Charleston 109-96 (O/U 173.5)
Houston (-24.5) over Longwood 86-46 (O/U 128.5)
James Madison (+5.5) over Wisconsin 72-61 (O/U 145.5)
Utah State (+3.5) over TCU 88-72 (O/U 150.5)
Grand Canyon (+5.5) over Saint Mary’s 75-66 (O/U 131.5)
#2024-march-madness
