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Esmerlyn Valdez or Josh Naylor

Who Should I Start? - Week 20 • Start New
Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez

RFPittsburgh Pirates PIT
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1BSeattle Mariners SEA
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Valdez over Naylor

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez continues historic rookie tear with elite power surge

Valdez has been an absolute revelation for the Pirates over the last 14 days, slashing .286/.432/.943 with seven home runs and 17 RBIs. The Pirates currently sit in third place in the NL Central with a 53-50 record and a six-game win streak in their recent ten-game window, holding steady despite a lengthy injury list that includes Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz. Valdez anchors the outfield as the everyday right fielder and is carrying the offense through an impressive rookie campaign.

His absurd recent tear, highlighted by 13 home runs across 34 total career games, easily surpasses our season projection of 20 homers. While a regression in his jaw-dropping .717 slugging percentage and .211 weekly batting average is likely given his high strikeout rate, his immense raw power is very real and makes him a must-start fantasy asset.

The Pirates face a seven-game slate this week, opening with a brief road stop against the Yankees before returning home for a three-game series against the Cubs. Valdez will face manageable pitching matchups against starters like Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon, who carry high ERAs above 4.00 and 5.00 respectively. With a massive seven-game volume and a red-hot bat, keep him locked into all fantasy lineups. Start.

Updated 3 days ago

Latest News Esmerlyn Valdez
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Naylor over Valdez

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor continues to anchor the Mariners' offense with consistent production

Naylor has maintained a steady rhythm at the plate over the last 14 days, posting a .351 batting average and racking up six stolen bases to help support an everyday role at first base. The Mariners currently sit in second place in the AL West with a 51-52 record, navigating multiple injuries across the roster while relying heavily on Naylor's steady presence in the lineup. Despite minor team turbulence and injuries to other key bats like J.P. Crawford, Naylor remains a permanent fixture in the middle of the order.

His current hot streak aligns well with our overall baseline expectations, featuring a .261 batting average and strong speed contributions that reflect his career-high trajectory from a season ago. While his home run power has cooled off slightly with eight long balls on the year, his elite contact rate and high on-base skills ensure that his recent offensive output is entirely sustainable rather than a temporary fluke.

The Mariners face a six-game slate this week, opening with three games on the road against the Rangers. Naylor will face challenging matchups against pitchers like MacKenzie Gore, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jacob deGrom, who bring solid ratios to the mound. However, his strong weekly projection of over 27 fantasy points and multi-category upside make him an easy lock for fantasy lineups. Start.

Updated 3 days ago

Latest News Josh Naylor
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Performance Esmerlyn Valdez
Fantasy Chart Loading...

AVG HR RBI R OBP SLG SB GP
.167242.4230.50006
Season stats based on the past 7 days

AVG HR RBI R OBP SLG SB GP
.200385.3850.56709
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Josh Naylor
Fantasy Chart Loading...

AVG HR RBI R OBP SLG SB GP
.348014.4000.39136
Season stats based on the past 7 days

AVG HR RBI R OBP SLG SB GP
.313016.4050.34439
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Esmerlyn Valdez
OWN
87%
+4.91 compared to last week
START
78%
-0.89 compared to last week
OWN/START Josh Naylor
OWN
87%
-1.83 compared to last week
START
73%
+5.21 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Esmerlyn Valdez
46th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Josh Naylor
14th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Esmerlyn Valdez

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 46th among OF's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 49th.
  • The current leader among OF's is Pete Crow-Armstrong
  • He is putting up the kind of numbers the experts expected him to.
  • Trending Batting Stats

  • Top 25 in BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) with 0.404 and is currently ranked 23rd
  • Top 75 in batting average with 0.295 and is currently ranked 66th
  • Top 50 on base percentage and is currently ranked 37th with 0.388
  • Among the best in slugging percentage and is currently ranked 5th with 0.696
  • Top 10 in on base plus slugging and is currently ranked 8th with 1.084
  • Not too impressive and is currently ranked 128th in RBI with 32
  • Not too impressive and is currently ranked 209th in runs scored with 23
  • His average points in the past two weeks have remained fairly consistant and rose slightly by 1 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: AVG: +0.283, OBP: +0.377, HRs: +13, RBI: +34, Runs: +24, Wlks: +18, Stls: EVEN,
Breakdown Josh Naylor

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 14th among 1B's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 15th.
  • The current leader among 1B's is Luis Garcia Jr.
  • He is putting up the kind of numbers the experts expected him to.
  • Trending Batting Stats

  • Ranked 258th in BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) with 0.281
  • Ranked 151st in batting average with 0.264
  • Not overly impressive with on base percentage currently ranked 185th with 0.327
  • Not too impressive with slugging percentage currently ranked 308th with 0.357
  • Not too impressive with on base plus slugging currently ranked 284th with 0.684
  • Not very impressive in steals and is currently ranked 296th with 10
  • Not too impressive and is currently ranked 323rd in RBI with 13
  • Not too impressive and is currently ranked 215th in runs scored with 22
  • His average points in the past two weeks have remained fairly consistant and rose slightly by 0.2 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: AVG: -0.035, OBP: -0.04, HRs: -3, RBI: -22, Runs: -10, Wlks: -5, Stls: +10,
Next Up Health Check
Injury Esmerlyn Valdez

No Injury Reported

Injury Josh Naylor

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Esmerlyn Valdez
DateOpponentResult
Jul 20@NYYAngel ChivilliL 8-5
Jul 21@NYY
Jul 22@NYYPaul BlackburnL 2-0
Jul 22@NYYMason MontgomeryW 3-5
Jul 24VS CHCCaleb ThielbarL 2-3
Jul 25VS CHCShota ImanagaL 0-11
Jul 26VS CHCJameson Taillon
AVG HR RBI R OBP SLG SB GP
.130252.3330.39107
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Josh Naylor
DateOpponentResult
Jul 20VS CINGeorge KirbyW 8-0
Jul 21VS CINChase BurnsL 2-4
Jul 22VS CINBrady SingerL 3-5
Jul 24@TEXPeyton GrayL 5-4
Jul 25@TEXNathan EovaldiL 7-1
Jul 26@TEXJacob deGrom
AVG HR RBI R OBP SLG SB GP
.273003.3510.30329
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Esmerlyn Valdez
11.30
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Josh Naylor
10.27
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Esmerlyn Valdez
YEAR TM GP H HR R RBI SB BB AVG OBP SLG PTS
2026 PIT 36 34 13 24 34 0 18 .283 .377 .683 141
ON PACE 55 52 20 37 52 0 27 .283 .377 .683 217
3-YEAR AVG . . . 0
Career 36 34 13 24 34 0 18 .283 .377 .683
Career Josh Naylor
YEAR TM GP H HR R RBI SB BB AVG OBP SLG PTS
2019 SD 92 63 8 29 31 1 24 .249 .314 .403 156
2020 SD 41 29 2 16 9 1 4 .279 .312 .413 68
2021 CLE 67 59 7 28 21 1 14 .258 .306 .406 181
2022 CLE 118 114 21 47 77 5 33 .260 .316 .463 412
2023 CLE 121 140 17 52 97 10 33 .310 .356 .491 477
2024 CLE 161 146 31 86 113 6 59 .242 .315 .444 584
2025 ARI 158 176 23 88 97 32 52 .298 .358 .471 648
2026 SEA 98 98 8 40 37 22 33 .257 .322 .353 336
ON PACE 151 151 12 61 57 33 50 .257 .322 .353 518
3-YEAR AVG 147 154 24 75 102 16 48 .281 .341 .467 570
Career 856 825 117 386 482 78 252 .270 .329 .441
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Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI @WAS 01:35 EDT EST Kohl Drake
Miles Mikolas
ATH @MIN 02:10 EDT EST Jeffrey Springs
Connor Prielipp
ATL @BAL 01:35 EDT EST Reynaldo Lopez
Shane Baz
BOS vs TOR 01:35 EDT EST Ranger Suarez
Kevin Gausman
CHC @PIT 01:35 EDT EST Jameson Taillon
Braxton Ashcraft
CHW vs HOU 02:10 EDT EST Erick Fedde
Ronel Blanco
CIN @STL 02:15 EDT EST Andrew Abbott
Kyle Leahy
CLE @TB 12:15 EDT EST Parker Messick
Drew Rasmussen
COL @MIL 02:10 EDT EST Kyle Freeland
Jacob Misiorowski
DET vs KC 01:40 EDT EST Framber Valdez
Luinder Avila
LAA @SF 04:05 EDT EST Jose Soriano
Carson Whisenhunt
LAD @NYM 01:40 EDT EST Emmet Sheehan
Freddy Peralta
MIA vs SD 01:40 EDT EST Janson Junk
Walker Buehler
NYY @PHI 07:20 EDT EST Will Warren
Cristopher Sanchez
SEA @TEX 02:35 EDT EST Logan Gilbert
Jacob deGrom
Matchup Time
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Matchup Time
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