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Spencer Arrighetti or Troy Melton

Who Should I Start? - Week 12 • Start New
Spencer Arrighetti

Spencer Arrighetti

SPHouston Astros HOU
Troy Melton

Troy Melton

SPDetroit Tigers DET
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Arrighetti over Melton

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Spencer Arrighetti

Spencer Arrighetti's magical run hits a bump, but his rotation role remains secure

After being named the AL Pitcher of the Month for May, Spencer Arrighetti stumbled on June 3rd, allowing four earned runs in four innings against the Pirates. Despite the hiccup, the 26-year-old slots in as the number two starter in a heavily depleted Houston rotation that is missing key arms like Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier. The fourth-place Astros will continue to lean heavily on him as they look to climb out of their 28-35 hole in the AL West.

While his current 1.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the season are elite, our models expect some regression toward a 4.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 90.0 projected innings. His previous career marks, including a 5.05 ERA in 2024, suggest his current sub-2.00 mark is a bit of a mirage driven by a low hits-allowed rate. However, his strong strikeout potential of 100 Ks over 90.0 projected innings makes him a highly valuable asset even with expected ratio correction.

Because Arrighetti already took the mound on June 3rd, he has no remaining scheduled starts for the rest of this matchup period. Fantasy managers can safely bench him for the remainder of the week as the Astros wrap up series against the Pirates and Athletics. He is a Sit for the rest of the week, but remains an absolute hold for his next turn in the rotation.

Updated 2 days ago

Latest News Spencer Arrighetti
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Melton over Arrighetti

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Troy Melton

Troy Melton Shines Since Return, Cementing Mid-Rotation Role in Detroit's Depleted Staff

Melton has been absolutely stellar since returning from the injured list, compiling a brilliant 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his first 20.2 innings. He has stepped up beautifully for a fourth-place Tigers team (25-38) that is riding a three-game win streak but navigating a heavily depleted rotation with Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Reese Olson all sidelined. Melton now slots in as a crucial mid-rotation starter.

While his sub-2.00 ERA is a small-sample-size hot streak, his strong performance is backed by his excellent 2025 debut where he registered a 3.34 ERA. Our models project him to maintain a solid 3.69 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 78.0 innings this year, proving his high-90s velocity and deep arsenal are sustainable long-term.

Melton dominated yesterday in a career-best eight-inning victory against Tampa Bay, meaning his work is finished for the current weekly matchup. With Detroit hosting Seattle for the weekend, you can safely slide him to your bench for the remaining days before starting him with confidence next week. Verdict: Hold.

Updated 2 days ago

Latest News Troy Melton
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Performance Spencer Arrighetti
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
9.000-000311.751
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
4.501-000621.102
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Troy Melton
Fantasy Chart Loading...

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
2.251-000520.751
Season stats based on the past 7 days

ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
1.782-000960.893
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Spencer Arrighetti
OWN
85%
-1.4 compared to last week
START
52%
-3.88 compared to last week
OWN/START Troy Melton
OWN
40%
+4.79 compared to last week
START
19%
-7.55 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Spencer Arrighetti
68th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Troy Melton
35th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Spencer Arrighetti

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 69th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 27th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • You have to be impressed by how much better he is performing. Can he keep this up or is it a fluke?
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • Top 75 in WHIP and is currently ranked 54th with 1.17
  • ERA is among the best in the league currently ranked 8th with 1.97
  • Top 10 in walks and is currently ranked 7th with 27
  • He wins a lot of games and is currently ranked 3rd with 7
  • Slight decline in numbers lately at 1.4 PPG.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +6, L: EVEN, WHIP: +0.182, ERA: -3.93, K's: +38, Walks: +22
Breakdown Troy Melton

    Overview

  • Experts rank this player at 35th among SP's. Based on his stats from the past 60 days, he is currently ranked 229th.
  • The current leader among SP's is Cristopher Sanchez
  • Can't be doing much worse than he is right now. Failing to live up to expectations is one thing, but playing this bad is another.
  • Trending Pitching Stats

  • WHIP is among the best in the league currently ranked 8th with 0.89
  • ERA is among the best in the league currently ranked 7th with 1.78
  • Currently ranked 128th in wins with 2
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: W: +2, L: EVEN, WHIP: +0.89, ERA: +1.78, K's: +9, Walks: +6
Next Up Health Check
Injury Spencer Arrighetti

No Injury Reported

Injury Troy Melton

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Spencer Arrighetti
DateOpponentResult
Jun 02VS PITBubba ChandlerL 6-10
Jun 03VS PITAJ BlubaughW 11-9
Jun 04VS PITJared JonesL 1-5
Jun 05VS ATHPeter LambertW 5-1
Jun 06VS ATHKade Morris
Jun 07VS ATHGage Jump
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
9.000-000311.751
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Matchups Troy Melton
DateOpponentResult
Jun 01@TBTyler HoltonW 9-10
Jun 02@TBJack FlahertyW 0-8
Jun 03@TBTroy MeltonW 2-7
Jun 05VS SEAFramber ValdezW 7-3
Jun 06VS SEABryce Miller
Jun 07VS SEALuis Castillo
ERA W-L HLD SV SO WLK WHIP GP
2.251-000520.751
Season stats based on this weeks opponents
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Spencer Arrighetti
11.92
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Troy Melton
10.27
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Spencer Arrighetti
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2024 HOU 29 142.2 2505 171 65 0 7-13 4.98 1.44 10.8 279
2025 HOU 7 35.1 618 31 20 0 1-5 5.35 1.42 7.9 42
2026 HOU 9 51.0 840 46 27 0 7-1 1.94 1.16 8.1 150
ON PACE 22 128 2093 114 67 0 17-2 1.94 1.16 8.1 372
3-YEAR AVG 18 87 1562 101 43 0 4-9 5.11 1.45 10.3 161
Career 45 226.2 3963 248 112 0 0-0 4.41 1.39 9.9
Career Troy Melton
YEAR TM APP INN PC K WLK SV W-L ERA WHIP K/9 PTS
2025 DET 20 51.2 779 44 19 0 4-3 3.31 1.12 7.7 112
2026 DET 3 20.2 262 9 6 0 2-0 1.74 0.87 3.9 53
ON PACE 7 52 663 22 15 0 5-0 1.74 0.87 3.9 134
3-YEAR AVG 20 51 779 44 19 0 4-3 3.31 1.12 7.7 112
Career 23 72.1 1041 53 25 0 0-0 2.86 1.05 6.6
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Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs WAS 04:10 EDT EST Eduardo Rodriguez
Zack Littell
ATH @HOU 04:10 EDT EST Kade Morris
Tatsuya Imai
ATL vs PIT 04:10 EDT EST Spencer Strider
Braxton Ashcraft
BAL @TOR 03:07 EDT EST Kyle Bradish
Braydon Fisher
BOS @NYY 07:35 EDT EST Ranger Suarez
Will Warren
CHC vs SF 02:20 EDT EST Ben Brown
Landen Roupp
CHW @PHI 04:05 EDT EST Brandon Eisert
Andrew Painter
CIN @STL 02:15 EDT EST Nick Lodolo
Matthew Liberatore
CLE @TEX 07:35 EDT EST Tanner Bibee
Jack Leiter
COL vs MIL 09:10 EDT EST
Jacob Misiorowski
DET vs SEA 01:10 EDT EST Keider Montero
Bryce Miller
KC @MIN 02:10 EDT EST Luinder Avila
Joe Ryan
LAA @LAD 10:10 EDT EST Jack Kochanowicz
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
MIA vs TB 04:10 EDT EST Lake Bachar
Shane McClanahan
NYM @SD 10:10 EDT EST Nolan McLean
Griffin Canning
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
CAR @VGK 8:00 PM EST