Fantasy Basketball Impact of Fred VanVleet's Injury: Kevin Durant, Reed Sheppard, and More

Houston Rockets' guard Fred VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and is likely to miss the entire season. The Rockets were a popular pick to make a jump to contender status after adding Kevin Durant in an offseason trade (in which they didn't give up that much). Their point guard's absence changes the equation, though, especially when they were playing from behind and chasing several teams.

Let's look at what VanVleet's injury means for Houston's championship chances and the fantasy basketball implications. We'll talk about whether they can win big, who needs to step up, and the fantasy players who could be impacted.

Check out FantasySP's injury news on a regular basis to keep up with every player dealing with issues throughout the season.

Can the Rockets win big?

Houston finished second in the Western Conference last season, but it was packed tight after the Thunder at the top: the Rockets were just two games ahead of the teams in third through fifth place and four games ahead of eighth-place Memphis. The addition of Durant was meant to push them ahead of that inflated group and toward contention with Oklahoma City.

VanVleet was an All Star in 2022 and won a championship with the Raptors back in 2019, so he has valuable experience that the team could surely use in the postseason. Swapping in Durant for VanVleet still makes them better, but losing the veteran point guard takes away a playmaker and three-point shooter.

VanVleet averaged at least 6.9 three-point attempts per game every season from 2019-20 through last year, topping out at 9.9 in 2021-22. He averaged over 17 points per game every season during that stretch until last year, when he fell to 14.1. That came with a drop in field goals, three pointers, and free throws from the previous four seasons.

It also came with a major boost in usage for second-year budding star Amen Thompson. That trend was likely to continue anyway, so the team may be equipped to handle the loss of VanVeleet. Thompson can take over even more if needed, Durant will surely handle the ball plenty, and the offense will run through center Alperen Sengun at the high and low post at times.

It's not ideal to lose a veteran starter, especially because guards Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks were sent out in the Durant trade. There are enough good players with the ball, though, that the Rockets should be able to handle themselves for the time being. The addition of a veteran guard might be their biggest to-do, maybe even before the season starts (or at the trade deadline).

Who needs to step up?

I mentioned a few guys already. Durant will always get his, and this might even increase his fantasy value a little bit. It doesn't change anything about his status as a top guy. Sengun touches the ball a lot, but he might have been projected to take a step back because of Durant's addition. This could put Sengun back in more of the offensive spotlight.

Thompson really came on last season and made a complete impact, tying for third on the team in points per game, second in rebounding, third in assists, third in steals, and tied for first in blocks.

Last year's third overall pick, Reed Sheppard, is going to be a major player in filling this absence. He averaged 12.6 minutes per game in 52 games (three starts), not finding a consistent spot in the rotation. It's tough for a top pick to join a successful team because the franchise must balance winning with the player's development, but there won't be an option now other than to put Sheppard in for major minutes.

Sheppard was seen as a player who could make a fast impact coming out of college, and his shooting might be his best asset. That will help fill some of what VanVleet left behind, and Sheppard can probably fill the veteran's shoes defensively also.

The team lost valuable depth, which is why a trade target or cheap veteran signing makes a lot of sense. They have the players to cover for what they are losing in VanVleet, though, so the Rockets could still find success if everyone else stays mostly healthy (guys are always going to miss some games).

What are the fantasy basketball implications?

The players mentioned so far are the ones who really matter from a fantasy perspective. Sheppard is being drafted outside the top 40 point guards in fantasy drafts, but that is likely to start rising after VanVleet's injury. While he's still just a mid-to-late-round pick, Sheppard is a much more appealing fantasy player now with the chance for an expanded role.

Look for Thompson to take on even more ball handling and playmaking duties in his third season, as he might be developing into a superstar; let's see how fast and far he goes before throwing that label around. Thompson is going sixth among shooting guards in fantasy drafts, around the early third round. This injury only strengthens his spot in the offense.

Sengun is at the top of the second tier of centers, a valuable fantasy player who racks up points and rebounds. As I said above, his offensive touches were at risk of falling, but this might up his usage again. Sengun will likely get time to lead the offense, either with the second unit or when injuries knock a few guys out.

Aaron Holiday and Cam Whitmore are names who could get some more minutes, but they are likely to be nothing more than streaming fantasy guys who are generally left as free agents. Holiday, in particular, gets a small bump in deep-league value.

Conclusion

Houston is in position to possibly withstand the loss of VanVleet. His usage already dropped last season, so there's not as much to replace as there would have been even the year before. Thompson's ascent and Sheppard's readiness to contribute heavily will be determining factors.

Houston is behind the Thunder, Nuggets, and Lakers in the West according to FanDuel's championship odds. OKC is going to be the favorite until further notice; the Rockets will have to come take reigns from them.

They were unlikely to win before VanVleet's injury, and the Rockets are a little bit less likely to win the championship now that he is out. A move to upgrade the guard depth would help, but they probably aren't adding a guy who will really make a huge difference after bringing in Durant this offseason.