First Weekend March Madness Betting Notes

On the eve of the second week of NCAA Tournament action, let's recap the first two rounds of action from a gambling perspective and identify any trends that stand out.

The first two rounds of March Madness are over, and I know I’m not the only one who is a little disappointed. It’s great to have so many games and near-constant action, but a lack of major upsets and close finishes has made this one of the tamer instances of Madness I can remember.

That’s not to call the first weekend bad, but I was underwhelmed and spoke with others who feel the same way. Only one team worse than a sixth seed made the Sweet 16: No. 11 NC State, who beat No. 14 Oakland in the Round of 32; all one- and two-seeds are still alive.

Let’s look at some gambling-related numbers from the weekend’s games and put them together with the entire first two rounds to see if any trends exist that might help us during the second week of games.

All matchups, lines, and results from Saturday and Sunday’s games are listed at the bottom. Lines were from BetMGM. Check out the recaps of Day 1 and Day 2 of the tournament.

Saturday Notes

• Seven favorites covered the spread while just one underdog bet won. That underdog was Texas, who lost by four to Tennessee while getting 6.5 on the spread.
• Five games went over their total and three under.
• Five of the seven favorite wins went over, with two falling under.
• The one underdog win went under.
• No team had a double-digit spread, but Arizona and Illinois covered as 9.5-point favorites.

Sunday Notes

• Six favorites won and covered, and two underdogs covered. Among those underdogs, Clemson won their game while Texas A&M lost by five in overtime as 10.5-point underdogs.
• Four games went over the total while four were under.
• Three of the six favorite wins went over with three finishing under.
• The underdog wins also split, with one over and one under.
• The three No. 1 seeds in action all had double-digit spreads, and while Houston didn’t cover against Texas A&M, Purdue and UConn both reached their required number.

Round of 32 Overview

• Favorites dominated the weekend, covering 13 of 16 games.
• Nine games finished over their listed total, and seven were under.
• Eight of 13 favorite wins went over and five under.
• In a small sample of underdog covers, one went over and two under.
• Five teams were favored by at least 9.5 points, and four of them covered.

First Two Rounds

• Thursday and Friday weren’t quite as heavy toward the favorites, but the first four days of action saw the favorite win and cover in 30 of 48 games, with 17 being covered by the underdog. One game was listed as a pick ‘em with no favorite.
• 25 games went over and 23 under. Each round was close to 50-50 in terms of over/under splits.
• 17 of 30 favorite wins finished over the total with 13 under.
• Seven of 17 underdog wins were over, with 10 going under.
• The one game with no favorite went over.

Sweet 16 and Elite Eight

UConn is the only team that opened as at least eight-point favorites, holding a spread of 10.5 points. They have covered two double-digit spreads so far but now face fifth-seeded San Diego State in the Sweet 16. SDSU held onto a four-point win against No. 12 UAB in the first round before blowing out No. 13 Yale in the second round.

With NC State the only low seed still alive, it makes sense that spreads would be close. Every game could conceivably go either way, with UConn and Purdue the only two teams that really stand out in their matchup other than No. 2 Marquette against No. 11 NC State.

The only trend that really sticks out to me is that favorites covered at close to twice the rate of underdogs. The better seed is favored in all eight games of the Sweet 16. Betting on the higher seed seems like an easy strategy, but it’s never that simple.

The four No. 1 seeds are all rolling at a pretty good rate, with Houston sweating out an overtime win as the only real blemish. A Duke team that controlled most of their two contests could find a reeling Houston team. 

Most likely, things will go back toward an even split, with underdogs seeing better results in the second week of action. Individual matchups will be more important than any overarching trend in the third and fourth rounds of the tournament.

Saturday Matchups

Arizona (-9.5) over Dayton 78-68 (O/U 149.5)

Gonzaga (-3.5) over Kansas 89-68 (O/U 151.5)

North Carolina (-3.5) over Michigan St. 85-69 (O/U 139.5)

Iowa St. (-7.5) over Washington St. 67-56 (O/U 129.5)

NC St. (-5.5) over Oakland 79-73 OT (O/U 146.5)

Tennessee (-6.5) over Texas 62-58 (O/U 146.5)

Illinois (-9.5) over Duquesne 89-63 (O/U 148.5)

Creighton (-5.5) over Oregon 86-73 2OT (O/U 146.5)

Sunday Matchups

Marquette (-3.5) over Colorado 81-77 (O/U 147.5)

Purdue (-11.5) over Utah St. 106-67 (O/U 148.5)

Duke (-7.5) over James Madison 93-55 (O/U 148.5)

Clemson (+4.5) over Baylor 72-64 (O/U 144.5)

Alabama (-5.5) over Grand Canyon 72-61 (O/U 168.5)

UConn (-14.5) over Northwestern 75-58 (O/U 135.5)

Houston (-10.5) over Texas A&M 100-95 OT (O/U 132.5)

San Diego St. (-5.5) over Yale 85-57 (O/U 129.5)

#2024-march-madness