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Patrick Mahomes or C.J. Stroud

Who Should I Start? - Week 1 • Start New
Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes

QBKansas City Chiefs KC
C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud

QBHouston Texans HOU
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Mahomes over Stroud

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Patrick Mahomes

Red-Zone Chemistry and Rapid Rehab Make This Injured Superstar a Major Draft-Day Steal

Recovering from a late-season ACL tear, Patrick Mahomes is already back on the field for OTAs and targeting a Week 1 return. He has looked sharp in practices, connecting on multiple red-zone scores with deep-threat Xavier Worthy while maintaining his elite connection with Travis Kelce.

Our projections anticipate a highly productive season with 3,981 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Despite this strong outlook, his draft price has settled at a highly stable 104 ADP after briefly climbing to 92. This discount represents a prime value opportunity for fantasy managers in PPR drafts.

With Eric Bieniemy back on the coaching staff to guide the offense, Mahomes possesses an incredibly high floor. While his rushing contributions might be slightly limited early on as he protects his knee, his arm talent and elite playmaking make him a premier target at his current market cost.


Updated 22 hrs ago

Latest News Patrick Mahomes
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Stroud over Mahomes

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook C.J. Stroud

A Rebuilt Offense and Plummeting Draft Cost Set Up a Major Bounce-Back Value

Stroud enters his fourth season with the Texans firmly entrenched as the starting quarterback. Houston's front office picked up his fifth-year option, and he spent the offseason adding muscle to prepare for a bounce-back year. Backed by a revamped offensive line featuring veteran additions like Wyatt Teller, Stroud is primed for greater pocket stability.

The passing hierarchy is formidable. Stroud will distribute targets to Nico Collins, slot weapon Tank Dell, and newly elevated receiver Jayden Higgins, whose growing connection with Stroud has generated positive offseason buzz. Combined with David Montgomery anchoring the backfield, our models project Stroud to throw for 3,873 yards and 23 touchdowns.

From a market perspective, Stroud's ADP has steadily fallen from around pick 138 in early May to roughly 162. This declining cost represents an incredible draft-day steal. Our projections place him well ahead of this depressed market price, making him a highly attractive, low-risk target in 1.0 PPR formats.


Updated 22 hrs ago

Latest News C.J. Stroud
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Performance Patrick Mahomes
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YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance C.J. Stroud
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YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
000000
Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
000000
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
Redzone Touches Patrick Mahomes

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Redzone Touches C.J. Stroud

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Patrick Mahomes
OWN
69%
+0.8 compared to last week
START
33%
-0.71 compared to last week
OWN/START C.J. Stroud
OWN
55%
No change since last week.
START
23%
No change since last week.
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Patrick Mahomes
15th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus C.J. Stroud
24th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Patrick Mahomes

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 15th among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 10th with 301.76 total points (20.12 avg).
  • Currently 132.48 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up slightly better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • He has missed playing in at least 2 games but is not listed on the injury report as of today. Check out his player news to see if he has any nagging injuries.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 20.1.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 10 in pass yards with 3939 (262.60 per game) and is currently ranked 8th among QB.
  • Top 20 in pass tds with 22 (1.47 per game) and is currently ranked 17th among QB.
  • Top 15 in pass completions with 344 (22.93 per game) and is currently ranked 11th.
  • Top 10 in interceptions with 12 (0.80 per game) and is currently ranked 10th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • Played in 2 less games this year than last year.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: +11, TDs: -4, INTs: +1
  • He has recorded some deep balls down the field. If your league gives out bonuses for long TD passes then he has some added value.
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3879, PASS TDS: 27, RUSH YDS: 293, RUSH TDS: 2
Breakdown C.J. Stroud

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 23rd among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 21st with 214.12 total points (11.27 avg).
  • Currently 220.12 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up the kind of numbers the experts expected him to.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 11.3.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 25 in pass yards with 3041 (168.94 per game) and is currently ranked 21st among QB.
  • Top 25 in pass tds with 19 (1.06 per game) and is currently ranked 23rd among QB.
  • Top 20 in interceptions with 8 (0.44 per game) and is currently ranked 20th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • Played in 2 more games this year than last year.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: -688, TDs: -1, INTs: EVEN
  • He has recorded some deep balls down the field. If your league gives out bonuses for long TD passes then he has some added value.
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3710, PASS TDS: 22, RUSH YDS: 233, RUSH TDS: 2
Next Up Health Check
Injury Patrick Mahomes

No Injury Reported

Injury C.J. Stroud

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Patrick Mahomes

Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs VS Denver Broncos

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
18.47271.2619127623.15
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 4th with 160.00 total points (8.42 avg).
  • Currently 67 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 8.4.

Defensive Stats

  • Top 2 in total yards against with 303.18 per game and is currently ranked 2nd among DST.
  • Top 2 in rush defense with 1548 (91.06 per game) and is currently ranked 2nd among DST.
  • Top 6 in pass defense with 3606 (212.12 per game) and is currently ranked 6th among DST.
  • Top 2 in sacks with 68 (4.00 per game) and currently ranked 1st among DST.
  • Top 4 in points against with 18.29 per game and currently ranked 3rd among DST.
  • Currently ranked 18th in Total TDs with 2 (0.12 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: -75.68, Turnovers: -6 Sacks: +15, INTs: -3, TDs: -3, Points Allowed: +0.47,
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 31, INT: 13, TDS: 3, PA/G: 19.4, YDS/G: 295.6
Matchups C.J. Stroud

Week 1
Houston Texans VS Buffalo Bills

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
22.21287.8923163733.15
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 14th with 114.00 total points (6.00 avg).
  • Currently 113 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 6.

Defensive Stats

  • Top 4 in total yards against with 321.76 per game and is currently ranked 4th among DST.
  • Ranked 28th in rush defense with 2423 (142.53 per game).
  • Top 2 in pass defense with 3047 (179.24 per game) and is currently ranked 1st among DST.
  • Top 12 in interceptions with 13 (0.76 per game) and currently ranked 12th among DST.
  • Top 12 in points against with 21.47 per game and currently ranked 12th among DST.
  • Top 8 in Total TDs with 3 (0.18 per game) and currently ranked 8th among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: -10.01, Turnovers: -17 Sacks: -6, INTs: -7, TDs: -2, Points Allowed: +1.51,
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 28, INT: 12, TDS: 3, PA/G: 22.8, YDS/G: 311.4
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Patrick Mahomes
17.17
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating C.J. Stroud
15.65
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Patrick Mahomes
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2018 KC 16 5097 66% 50 12 113.8 272 2 4
2019 KC 14 4031 66% 26 5 105.3 218 2 4
2020 KC 15 4740 66% 38 6 108.2 308 2 2
2021 KC 16 4839 66% 37 13 98.5 381 2 4
2022 KC 16 5250 67% 41 12 105.2 358 4 0
2023 KC 16 4184 67% 27 14 92.6 389 0 3
2024 KC 16 3928 68% 26 11 93.5 307 2 0
2025 KC 15 3939 63% 22 12 88.6 452 5 0
3-YEAR AVG 18 4978 68% 35 13 97.9 404 2 1
Totals 138 39109 66% 286 90 100.6 2976 22 20
Career C.J. Stroud
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2023 HOU 15 4108 64% 23 5 100.8 167 3 4
2024 HOU 16 3727 63% 20 12 87.0 233 0 4
2025 HOU 14 3041 65% 19 8 92.9 209 1 0
3-YEAR AVG 17 3951 64% 22 9 94 234 1 3
Totals 51 12064 63% 67 30 92.1 714 4 8
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Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs WAS 04:10 EDT EST
ATH @HOU 04:10 EDT EST
ATL vs PIT 04:10 EDT EST
BAL @TOR 03:07 EDT EST
BOS @NYY 07:35 EDT EST
CHC vs SF 02:20 EDT EST
CHW @PHI 04:05 EDT EST
CIN @STL 02:15 EDT EST
CLE @TEX 07:35 EDT EST
COL vs MIL 09:10 EDT EST
DET vs SEA 01:10 EDT EST
KC @MIN 02:10 EDT EST
LAA @LAD 10:10 EDT EST
MIA vs TB 04:10 EDT EST
NYM @SD 10:10 EDT EST
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
CAR @VGK 8:00 PM EST