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Caleb Williams or Baker Mayfield

Who Should I Start? - Week 1 • Start New
Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams

QBChicago Bears CHI
Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield

QBTampa Bay Bucs TB
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Williams over Mayfield

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Caleb Williams

Madden Cover Star Poised for Another Massive Leap in Year Three

Focus on Caleb Williams' daily work with Ben Johnson and his explosive supporting cast, which features Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. After throwing for 4,542 yards and 32 touchdowns in his sophomore year, the Bears' signal-caller is primed to lead an even more efficient, high-flying offense in 2026.

Analyzing his market value, Williams' ADP has settled around 85.5, briefly spiking into the early fifth round amidst Madden cover hype before stabilizing as a premium middle-round target. In 1.0 PPR leagues, our models view this price point as an absolute steal given his elite ceiling and his quarterback-friendly ecosystem.

Although quarterbacks coach J.T. Barrett is urging him to take fewer risky deep shots, our projections expect high-volume production with 3,796 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. If he couples his elite arm with improved efficiency, he could easily smash his ADP.


Updated 17 hrs ago

Latest News Caleb Williams
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Mayfield over Williams

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Baker Mayfield

Contract Standoff and Roster Turnover Cast Shadow on Productive Buccaneers Quarterback

Baker Mayfield enters his contract year in a standoff with the Buccaneers, setting a training camp extension deadline. While highly productive in Tampa Bay, his supporting cast changes after losing Mike Evans. Still, Mayfield remains confident in a healthy Chris Godwin and a receiving group featuring rookie Ted Hurst.

Our models project Mayfield to pass for 3,777 yards and 26 touchdowns, adding 327 yards on the ground. This represents a solid baseline, though below his career-best 2024 season. He remains a reliable distributor alongside tight end Cade Otton and wideout Jalen McMillan.

In draft leagues, Mayfield's ADP has settled near 136 after a brief spike into the mid-90s, reflecting market caution over his contract and target changes. At this late-round cost, our projections see him as a premier value pick who offers low-end starter capability with minimal investment risk.


Updated 17 hrs ago

Latest News Baker Mayfield
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Performance Caleb Williams
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YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Baker Mayfield
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YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
Redzone Touches Caleb Williams

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Redzone Touches Baker Mayfield

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Caleb Williams
OWN
90%
-1.31 compared to last week
START
45%
+0.46 compared to last week
OWN/START Baker Mayfield
OWN
86%
+3.49 compared to last week
START
39%
+1 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Caleb Williams
11th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Baker Mayfield
20th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Caleb Williams

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 11th among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 4th with 376.56 total points (18.83 avg).
  • Currently 57.68 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 18.8.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 10 in pass yards with 4181 (232.28 per game) and is currently ranked 7th among QB.
  • Top 6 in pass tds with 30 (1.67 per game) and is currently ranked 6th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass completions with 349 (19.39 per game) and is currently ranked 9th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • Played in 4 more games this year than last year.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: +1406, TDs: +15, INTs: +6
  • Known to throw for big gains. If your league has bonus points for long TDs then this guy would be great to have.
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3796, PASS TDS: 27, RUSH YDS: 375, RUSH TDS: 3
Breakdown Baker Mayfield

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 21st among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 13th with 275.46 total points (15.30 avg).
  • Currently 158.78 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 15.3.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 15 in pass yards with 3734 (207.44 per game) and is currently ranked 11th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass tds with 27 (1.50 per game) and is currently ranked 8th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass completions with 352 (19.56 per game) and is currently ranked 7th.
  • Top 6 in interceptions with 13 (0.72 per game) and is currently ranked 6th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: -682, TDs: -12, INTs: -2
  • Known to throw for big gains. If your league has bonus points for long TDs then this guy would be great to have.
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3777, PASS TDS: 26, RUSH YDS: 327, RUSH TDS: 2
Next Up Health Check
Injury Caleb Williams

No Injury Reported

Injury Baker Mayfield

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Caleb Williams

Week 1
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
23.00338.5022163123.51
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 16th with 103.00 total points (5.72 avg).
  • Currently 124 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 5.7.

Defensive Stats

  • Top 12 in turnovers with 21 (1.24 per game) and is currently ranked 11th among DST.
  • Ranked 23rd in rush defense with 2243 (131.94 per game).
  • Top 12 in pass defense with 3850 (226.47 per game) and is currently ranked 12th among DST.
  • Top 8 in interceptions with 15 (0.88 per game) and currently ranked 8th among DST.
  • Top 16 in points against with 22.35 per game and currently ranked 15th among DST.
  • Currently ranked 22nd in Total TDs with 2 (0.12 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: -56.26, Turnovers: +6 Sacks: -5, INTs: +8, TDs: +2, Points Allowed: -6.94,

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 39, INT: 11, TDS: 2, PA/G: 23.8, YDS/G: 347.7
Matchups Baker Mayfield

Week 1
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Cincinnati Bengals

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
28.94416.2420133523.88
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 26th with 77.00 total points (4.53 avg).
  • Currently 150 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Decline in numbers lately by 4.5 PPG.

Defensive Stats

  • Ranked 31st in rush defense with 2607 (153.35 per game).
  • Ranked 27th in pass defense with 4469 (262.88 per game).
  • One of the worst in points against with 28.94 per game and currently ranked 30th among DST.
  • Currently ranked 23rd in Total TDs with 2 (0.12 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: +45.36, Turnovers: -5 Sacks: +3, INTs: -4, TDs: -1, Points Allowed: +3.53,

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 41, INT: 12, TDS: 3, PA/G: 30.8, YDS/G: 404.7
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Caleb Williams
17.86
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Baker Mayfield
16.99
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Caleb Williams
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2024 CHI 16 3541 63% 20 6 87.8 483 0 5
2025 CHI 16 4542 57% 32 9 89.5 424 3 2
3-YEAR AVG 12 2574 60% 17 4 89.4 296 1 2
Totals 37 8340 60% 54 18 87.7 947 3 7
Career Baker Mayfield
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2018 CLE 14 3725 64% 27 14 93.7 131 0 6
2019 CLE 16 3827 59% 22 21 78.8 141 3 3
2020 CLE 16 3826 63% 29 8 97.2 168 1 4
2021 CLE 14 3010 61% 17 13 83.1 134 1 3
2022 CAR 12 2163 60% 10 8 79.0 89 1 2
2023 TB 16 4044 64% 28 10 94.6 163 1 3
2024 TB 16 4500 71% 41 16 106.8 378 3 2
2025 TB 16 3734 63% 27 13 88.3 401 1 3
3-YEAR AVG 18 4383 66% 35 14 97.6 332 2 3
Totals 129 29904 63% 210 106 91.4 1670 11 27
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Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI @CIN 04:10 EDT EST
ATH vs COL 10:05 EDT EST
ATL @NYM 04:10 EDT EST
BAL vs SD 04:05 EDT EST
BOS vs TEX 04:10 EDT EST
CHC @SF 10:05 EDT EST
CHW vs LAD 04:10 EDT EST
CLE vs DET 04:10 EDT EST
HOU @KC 07:10 EDT EST
LAA vs TB 10:07 EDT EST
MIA @PIT 04:05 EDT EST
MIL vs PHI 07:10 EDT EST
MIN vs STL 02:10 EDT EST
NYY @TOR 03:07 EDT EST
SEA @WAS 04:05 EDT EST
Matchup Time
NY @SA 8:30 PM EST
Matchup Time
No games scheduled