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Caleb Williams or Baker Mayfield

Who Should I Start? - Week 1 • Start New
Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams

QBChicago Bears CHI
Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield

QBTampa Bay Bucs TB
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Williams over Mayfield

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Caleb Williams

High-Upside Year 3 Leap Beckons in Dynamic Bears Offense

Caleb Williams enters his third NFL season poised for another step forward at the helm of Ben Johnson's offense. Surrounded by proven perimeter playmakers like Rome Odunze alongside versatile tight end Colston Loveland, Williams commands an explosive passing attack that continues to expand in efficiency and tempo.

Our projections forecast Williams for 3,825 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, paired with 400 rushing yards and four scores on the ground (290.0 fantasy points). Coming off a 32-touchdown campaign, his dual-threat mobility establishes a reliable weekly baseline with top-tier ceiling potential.

Draft market sentiment has cooled recently, as Williams' ADP slid from pick 73 down into the 110s late in August. With fantasy manager start rates rebounding up to 74%, our models view this declining draft cost as an outstanding value buy for managers hunting a high-ceiling starter.


Updated 14 hrs ago

Latest News Caleb Williams
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Mayfield over Williams

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Baker Mayfield

Undervalued Late-Round QB2 with Proven Passing Floor

Baker Mayfield enters the season firmly established as Tampa Bay's starting quarterback with dependable continuity across the passing attack. Backed by proven target Chris Godwin Jr. and young playmaker Emeka Egbuka, Mayfield retains the necessary surrounding cast to maintain consistent weekly fantasy utility.

Our models project Mayfield for 3,600 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and 325 rushing yards, totaling 272.0 fantasy points. While not an explosive runner, his red-zone efficiency and ability to distribute to multiple weapons support a dependable baseline in standard formats.

Market sentiment has grown noticeably cold, as his ADP tumbled from pick 124 in early August down to 176. With his roster rate dipping to 65%, this sliding draft cost turns Mayfield into a quality late-round value and reliable QB2 for managers waiting on the position.


Updated 14 hrs ago

Latest News Baker Mayfield
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Performance Caleb Williams
Fantasy Chart Loading...

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Baker Mayfield
Fantasy Chart Loading...

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
Redzone Touches Caleb Williams

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Redzone Touches Baker Mayfield

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Caleb Williams
OWN
100%
No change since last week.
START
74%
+1.23 compared to last week
OWN/START Baker Mayfield
OWN
64%
-5.22 compared to last week
START
11%
+2.77 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Caleb Williams
10th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Baker Mayfield
21st
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Caleb Williams

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 11th among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 4th with 376.56 total points (18.83 avg).
  • Currently 57.68 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 18.8.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 10 in pass yards with 4181 (232.28 per game) and is currently ranked 7th among QB.
  • Top 6 in pass tds with 30 (1.67 per game) and is currently ranked 6th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass completions with 349 (19.39 per game) and is currently ranked 9th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • Played in 4 more games this year than last year.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: +1406, TDs: +15, INTs: +6
  • Known to throw for big gains. If your league has bonus points for long TDs then this guy would be great to have.
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3825, PASS TDS: 27, RUSH YDS: 400, RUSH TDS: 4
Breakdown Baker Mayfield

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 21st among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 13th with 275.46 total points (15.30 avg).
  • Currently 158.78 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 15.3.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 15 in pass yards with 3734 (207.44 per game) and is currently ranked 11th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass tds with 27 (1.50 per game) and is currently ranked 8th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass completions with 352 (19.56 per game) and is currently ranked 7th.
  • Top 6 in interceptions with 13 (0.72 per game) and is currently ranked 6th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: -682, TDs: -12, INTs: -2
  • Known to throw for big gains. If your league has bonus points for long TDs then this guy would be great to have.
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3600, PASS TDS: 23, RUSH YDS: 315, RUSH TDS: 2
Next Up Health Check
Injury Caleb Williams

No Injury Reported

Injury Baker Mayfield

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Caleb Williams

Week 1
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
23.00338.5022163123.39
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 16th with 103.00 total points (5.72 avg).
  • Currently 124 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 5.7.

Defensive Stats

  • Top 12 in turnovers with 21 (1.24 per game) and is currently ranked 11th among DST.
  • Ranked 23rd in rush defense with 2243 (131.94 per game).
  • Top 12 in pass defense with 3850 (226.47 per game) and is currently ranked 12th among DST.
  • Top 8 in interceptions with 15 (0.88 per game) and currently ranked 8th among DST.
  • Top 16 in points against with 22.35 per game and currently ranked 15th among DST.
  • Currently ranked 15th in Total TDs with 2 (0.12 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: -56.26, Turnovers: +6 Sacks: -5, INTs: +8, TDs: +2, Points Allowed: -6.94,

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 35, INT: 13, TDS: 2, PA/G: 23.8, YDS/G: 347.7
Matchups Baker Mayfield

Week 1
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Cincinnati Bengals

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
28.94416.2420133523.76
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 26th with 77.00 total points (4.53 avg).
  • Currently 150 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Decline in numbers lately by 4.5 PPG.

Defensive Stats

  • Ranked 31st in rush defense with 2607 (153.35 per game).
  • Ranked 27th in pass defense with 4469 (262.88 per game).
  • One of the worst in points against with 28.94 per game and currently ranked 30th among DST.
  • Currently ranked 23rd in Total TDs with 2 (0.12 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: +45.36, Turnovers: -5 Sacks: +3, INTs: -4, TDs: -1, Points Allowed: +3.53,

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 38, INT: 13, TDS: 4, PA/G: 30.8, YDS/G: 404.7
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Caleb Williams
18.17
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Baker Mayfield
16.12
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Caleb Williams
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2024 CHI 16 3541 63% 20 6 87.8 483 0 5
2025 CHI 16 4542 57% 32 9 89.5 424 3 2
ON PACE 72 20439 57% 144 41 89.5 1908 14 9
3-YEAR AVG 12 2574 60% 17 4 89.4 296 1 2
Totals 37 8340 60% 54 18 87.7 947 3 7
Career Baker Mayfield
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2018 CLE 14 3725 64% 27 14 93.7 131 0 6
2019 CLE 16 3827 59% 22 21 78.8 141 3 3
2020 CLE 16 3826 63% 29 8 97.2 168 1 4
2021 CLE 14 3010 61% 17 13 83.1 134 1 3
2022 CAR 12 2163 60% 10 8 79.0 89 1 2
2023 TB 16 4044 64% 28 10 94.6 163 1 3
2024 TB 16 4500 71% 41 16 106.8 378 3 2
2025 TB 16 3734 63% 27 13 88.3 401 1 3
ON PACE 72 16803 63% 122 59 88.3 1805 5 14
3-YEAR AVG 18 4383 66% 35 14 97.6 332 2 3
Totals 129 29904 63% 210 106 91.4 1670 11 27
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RECENT DECISIONS

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Player News

Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs PHI 03:40 EDT EST
ATH @TEX 02:35 EDT EST
ATL @WAS 01:05 EDT EST
BAL @COL 03:10 EDT EST
BOS vs SEA 04:10 EDT EST
CHC vs MIL 07:40 EDT EST
CHW @HOU 08:10 EDT EST
CIN vs SD 12:40 EDT EST
CLE vs TOR 06:40 EDT EST
DET @MIN 07:40 EDT EST
KC vs MIA 07:40 EDT EST
LAA vs NYY 09:38 EDT EST
LAD vs STL 10:10 EDT EST
NYM @TB 06:40 EDT EST
PIT vs SF 06:40 EDT EST
Matchup Time
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Matchup Time
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