Outlook Geno Smith
Rejuvenated Veteran Set to Outperform Shifting Draft Cost in New-Look Offense
Geno Smith steps into the driver's seat as the starting quarterback for the Jets under offensive coordinator Frank Reich, who has publicly lauded Smith as the perfect fit for his scheme. With young, developmental passers listed behind him on the depth chart, Smith's immediate job security is firm, giving him a stable baseline of volume in an aggressive downfield passing attack.
Early reports from OTAs are highly encouraging, highlighting Smith's superior arm strength and his rapidly growing chemistry with newly acquired weapons like Adonai Mitchell alongside Garrett Wilson. Our models project Smith to throw for 3,472 yards and 21 touchdowns, offering solid high-end QB2 viability with weekly streaming upside.
His draft stock is on a steep upward trajectory, climbing from a late-round flyer near pick 240 in May up to pick 161 in early June. At this rising but still affordable price, we view him as an outstanding late-round target or QB2 in Superflex leagues, offering a safe projection of 212.2 fantasy points.
Updated 14 hrs ago
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Outlook Baker Mayfield
Contract Uncertainty and a Rebuilt Receiving Corps Highlight a Pivotal Campaign in Tampa Bay
Baker Mayfield enters the 2026 season under a cloud of contract tension, setting a training camp deadline as negotiations remain at a standstill. Despite this, he is the unquestioned starting quarterback. However, his environment looks different after losing star receiver Mike Evans, leaving Chris Godwin and young options like Jalen McMillan to lead the passing game.
Our models project another productive year with 3,777 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. Mayfield has been highly efficient in Tampa Bay but is coming off a physically taxing 2025 campaign. Thankfully, his rushing baseline—forecasted at 327 yards and two scores—helps stabilize his weekly floor in standard formats.
Mayfield's draft momentum is rising sharply, with his ADP jumping from pick 136 to 94 in early June. This climbing cost indicates growing market confidence, but with Evans gone, he is shifting from a late-round value steal to a riskier investment at his current draft price.
Updated 14 hrs ago
