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Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes

Who Should I Start? - Week 1 • Start New
Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson

QBBaltimore Ravens BAL
Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes

QBKansas City Chiefs KC
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Jackson over Mahomes

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Lamar Jackson

Dual-Threat Ceiling Offers Elite Value Amid Modest Market Slide

Lamar Jackson enters the season fully healthy after noting lower-body ailments curtailed his rushing output to 360 yards in 2025. Supported by top targets Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews alongside Derrick Henry in the backfield, Jackson is well-positioned to command new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle's scheme and reclaim his dual-threat dominance.

Our models project Jackson for a strong bounce-back campaign, forecasting 3,785 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and 665 rushing yards with four ground scores (315.0 total fantasy points). His rare rushing equity provides an unmatched weekly floor that keeps him locked into fantasy lineups.

In draft markets, Jackson's ADP drifted from the mid-40s in July down toward pick 57 by September. With fantasy managers starting him in 93% of leagues, this late-summer price slide presents a premier value opportunity for drafters chasing an elite ceiling without paying an early-round premium.


Updated 14 hrs ago

Latest News Lamar Jackson
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Mahomes over Jackson

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Patrick Mahomes

Post-Injury Market Drop Creates Massive Value for Kansas City Star

Patrick Mahomes enters the 2026 season recovering from an ACL injury, but encouraging training camp reports confirm he is firmly on track to start Week 1. Although Kansas City held him out of the preseason finale for precaution, his knee has responded well and his movement continues to trend in the right direction.

Leading an offense featuring Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and new backfield addition Kenneth Walker, Mahomes retains plenty of high-caliber support. We project Mahomes to deliver 3,800 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, and 280 rushing yards, reinforcing his standing as an elite fantasy contributor.

Market skepticism has caused his draft stock to tumble significantly, dropping from an ADP near pick 101 in July down past pick 150 heading into September. With our projections signaling stable high-end production, this declining draft cost transforms the former MVP into an exceptional draft-day value steal in 1.0 PPR drafts.


Updated 14 hrs ago

Latest News Patrick Mahomes
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Performance Lamar Jackson
Fantasy Chart Loading...

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Patrick Mahomes
Fantasy Chart Loading...

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
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Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
Redzone Touches Lamar Jackson

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Redzone Touches Patrick Mahomes

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Lamar Jackson
OWN
100%
No change since last week.
START
92%
+3.24 compared to last week
OWN/START Patrick Mahomes
OWN
95%
+0.12 compared to last week
START
24%
-3.02 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Lamar Jackson
2nd
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Patrick Mahomes
15th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Lamar Jackson

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 2nd among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 20th with 222.08 total points (12.34 avg).
  • Currently 212.16 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He should be doing much better than this. You might be able to get him now for a discount.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 12.3.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 25 in pass yards with 2702 (150.11 per game) and is currently ranked 22nd among QB.
  • Top 20 in pass tds with 21 (1.17 per game) and is currently ranked 18th among QB.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: -1253, TDs: -18, INTs: +3
  • Known to throw for big gains. If your league has bonus points for long TDs then this guy would be great to have.
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3785, PASS TDS: 30, RUSH YDS: 665, RUSH TDS: 4
Breakdown Patrick Mahomes

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 15th among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 10th with 301.76 total points (20.12 avg).
  • Currently 132.48 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up slightly better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • He has missed playing in at least 2 games and is listed on the injury report.
  • He is listed on the injury report about his Knee (ACL) (Since Aug 31, 2026). Check out his player news for a closer look.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 20.1.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 10 in pass yards with 3939 (262.60 per game) and is currently ranked 8th among QB.
  • Top 20 in pass tds with 22 (1.47 per game) and is currently ranked 17th among QB.
  • Top 15 in pass completions with 344 (22.93 per game) and is currently ranked 11th.
  • Top 10 in interceptions with 12 (0.80 per game) and is currently ranked 10th.
  • Top 5 in rushing TDs with 5 (0.33 per game) and is currently ranked 5th among QB.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • Played in 2 less games this year than last year.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: +11, TDs: -4, INTs: +1
  • He has recorded some deep balls down the field. If your league gives out bonuses for long TD passes then he has some added value.
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3800, PASS TDS: 26, RUSH YDS: 280, RUSH TDS: 3
Next Up Health Check
Injury Lamar Jackson

No Injury Reported

Injury Patrick Mahomes

KNEE (ACL) - Since Aug 31, 2026

Week 1
Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Lamar Jackson

Week 1
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
24.24393.7621143913.33
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 19th with 95.00 total points (5.59 avg).
  • Currently 132 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 5.6.

Defensive Stats

  • Top 12 in turnovers with 21 (1.24 per game) and is currently ranked 11th among DST.
  • Top 10 in rush defense with 1880 (110.59 per game) and is currently ranked 9th among DST.
  • Ranked 32nd in pass defense with 4814 (283.18 per game).
  • Top 10 in interceptions with 14 (0.82 per game) and currently ranked 10th among DST.
  • Top 22 in points against with 24.24 per game and currently ranked 21st among DST.
  • Currently ranked 26th in Total TDs with 1 (0.06 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: +22.76, Turnovers: EVEN Sacks: +5, INTs: +1, TDs: +1, Points Allowed: -0.82,

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 33, INT: 12, TDS: 3, PA/G: 25.8, YDS/G: 371.7
Matchups Patrick Mahomes

Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs VS Denver Broncos

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
18.47271.2619127624.97
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 4th with 160.00 total points (8.42 avg).
  • Currently 67 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 8.4.

Defensive Stats

  • Top 2 in total yards against with 303.18 per game and is currently ranked 2nd among DST.
  • Top 2 in rush defense with 1548 (91.06 per game) and is currently ranked 2nd among DST.
  • Top 6 in pass defense with 3606 (212.12 per game) and is currently ranked 6th among DST.
  • Top 2 in sacks with 68 (4.00 per game) and currently ranked 1st among DST.
  • Top 4 in points against with 18.29 per game and currently ranked 3rd among DST.
  • Currently ranked 18th in Total TDs with 2 (0.12 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: -75.68, Turnovers: -6 Sacks: +15, INTs: -3, TDs: -3, Points Allowed: +0.47,
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 60, INT: 14, TDS: 4, PA/G: 19.4, YDS/G: 295.6
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Lamar Jackson
20.78
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Patrick Mahomes
16.86
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Lamar Jackson
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2018 BAL 16 1201 58% 6 3 84.5 697 5 8
2019 BAL 15 3127 66% 36 6 113.3 1213 7 4
2020 BAL 16 2936 65% 26 10 97.9 1141 8 4
2021 BAL 12 2863 64% 15 13 85.9 761 2 3
2022 BAL 12 2242 62% 17 7 91.1 764 3 2
2023 BAL 16 3678 67% 24 7 102.7 821 5 6
2024 BAL 16 4172 67% 41 4 119.6 915 4 5
2025 BAL 14 2702 63% 21 7 101.9 360 2 3
ON PACE 63 12159 63% 95 32 101.9 1620 9 14
3-YEAR AVG 17 3802 66% 31 7 108.6 790 4 5
Totals 123 23936 65% 193 60 101.4 6980 38 37
Career Patrick Mahomes
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2018 KC 16 5097 66% 50 12 113.8 272 2 4
2019 KC 14 4031 66% 26 5 105.3 218 2 4
2020 KC 15 4740 66% 38 6 108.2 308 2 2
2021 KC 16 4839 66% 37 13 98.5 381 2 4
2022 KC 16 5250 67% 41 12 105.2 358 4 0
2023 KC 16 4184 67% 27 14 92.6 389 0 3
2024 KC 16 3928 68% 26 11 93.5 307 2 0
2025 KC 15 3939 63% 22 12 88.6 452 5 0
ON PACE 68 17726 63% 99 54 88.6 2034 23 0
3-YEAR AVG 18 4978 68% 35 13 97.9 404 2 1
Totals 138 39109 66% 286 90 100.6 2976 22 20
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RECENT DECISIONS

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Player News

Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs PHI 03:40 EDT EST
ATH @TEX 02:35 EDT EST
ATL @WAS 01:05 EDT EST
BAL @COL 03:10 EDT EST
BOS vs SEA 04:10 EDT EST
CHC vs MIL 07:40 EDT EST
CHW @HOU 08:10 EDT EST
CIN vs SD 12:40 EDT EST
CLE vs TOR 06:40 EDT EST
DET @MIN 07:40 EDT EST
KC vs MIA 07:40 EDT EST
LAA vs NYY 09:38 EDT EST
LAD vs STL 10:10 EDT EST
NYM @TB 06:40 EDT EST
PIT vs SF 06:40 EDT EST
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
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