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Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold

Who Should I Start? - Week 1 • Start New
Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield

QBTampa Bay Bucs TB
Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold

QBSeattle Seahawks SEA
OR
🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Mayfield over Darnold

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Baker Mayfield

Undervalued Late-Round QB2 with Proven Passing Floor

Baker Mayfield enters the season firmly established as Tampa Bay's starting quarterback with dependable continuity across the passing attack. Backed by proven target Chris Godwin Jr. and young playmaker Emeka Egbuka, Mayfield retains the necessary surrounding cast to maintain consistent weekly fantasy utility.

Our models project Mayfield for 3,600 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and 325 rushing yards, totaling 272.0 fantasy points. While not an explosive runner, his red-zone efficiency and ability to distribute to multiple weapons support a dependable baseline in standard formats.

Market sentiment has grown noticeably cold, as his ADP tumbled from pick 124 in early August down to 176. With his roster rate dipping to 65%, this sliding draft cost turns Mayfield into a quality late-round value and reliable QB2 for managers waiting on the position.


Updated 14 hrs ago

Latest News Baker Mayfield
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🔓 EXPERT ANALYSIS

Owners starting Darnold over Mayfield

 
 
 
 
START BOTH START BENCH BOTH BN

Includes Detailed Projections

Outlook Sam Darnold

Undervalued Starting Quarterback Poised to Outperform Depressed Draft Cost

Sam Darnold enters the 2026 campaign firmly established as Seattle's starting quarterback after passing for 4,292 yards and 27 touchdowns last season. Operating alongside proven pass catchers Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed, Darnold commands a passing attack with ample perimeter weapons.

Our projections anticipate another productive campaign, forecasting 3,800 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 100 rushing yards for 254 fantasy points. While he offers minimal rushing upside, his solid pocket efficiency provides a dependable baseline in traditional leagues.

Despite his solid projection, market sentiment has cooled considerably. Darnold's ADP tumbled from 149 in mid-July down to 230 by September, leaving him rostered in only 35% of leagues. Relative to this depressed draft price, our data views Darnold as an overlooked value steal in deep formats and a reliable streaming option.


Updated 14 hrs ago

Latest News Sam Darnold
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Performance Baker Mayfield
Fantasy Chart Loading...

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
000000
Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
000000
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Performance Sam Darnold
Fantasy Chart Loading...

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
20250.01050
Season stats based on the past 7 days

YDS CMP% TD INT RUSH YDS TD
20250.01050
Season stats based on the past 14 days
Next Up Own/Start Comparison
Redzone Touches Baker Mayfield

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Redzone Touches Sam Darnold

Redzone information only applies to RB, WR, TE.

Next Up Own/Start Comparison
OWN/START Baker Mayfield
OWN
64%
-5.22 compared to last week
START
11%
+2.77 compared to last week
OWN/START Sam Darnold
OWN
35%
+0.77 compared to last week
START
 
5%
-1.49 compared to last week
Next Up Consensus Rankings
Expert Consensus Baker Mayfield
21st
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Expert Consensus Sam Darnold
24th
Average Ranking of Fantasy Experts
Next Up Player Breakdowns
Breakdown Baker Mayfield

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 21st among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 13th with 275.46 total points (15.30 avg).
  • Currently 158.78 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is putting up better numbers than the experts expected him to.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 15.3.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 15 in pass yards with 3734 (207.44 per game) and is currently ranked 11th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass tds with 27 (1.50 per game) and is currently ranked 8th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass completions with 352 (19.56 per game) and is currently ranked 7th.
  • Top 6 in interceptions with 13 (0.72 per game) and is currently ranked 6th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: -682, TDs: -12, INTs: -2
  • Known to throw for big gains. If your league has bonus points for long TDs then this guy would be great to have.
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3600, PASS TDS: 23, RUSH YDS: 315, RUSH TDS: 2
Breakdown Sam Darnold

    Overview

  • A good quarterback can mean the world of difference in such a pass heavy league.
  • Experts rank this player at 24th among QB's. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 11th with 301.36 total points (14.35 avg).
  • Currently 132.88 points behind the leader: Matthew Stafford
  • He is doing better than most people thought he would.
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 14.4.
  • QB Stats

  • Top 6 in pass yards with 4292 (238.44 per game) and is currently ranked 5th among QB.
  • Top 10 in pass tds with 27 (1.50 per game) and is currently ranked 7th among QB.
  • Top 15 in pass completions with 339 (18.83 per game) and is currently ranked 14th.
  • Top 6 in interceptions with 14 (0.78 per game) and is currently ranked 5th.
  • Bonus Qualities

  • Played in 4 more games this year than last year.
  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Yards: +622, TDs: -4, INTs: +2
  • He has recorded some deep balls down the field. If your league gives out bonuses for long TD passes then he has some added value.
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!
  • Season Outlook

  • PASS YDS: 3800, PASS TDS: 24, RUSH YDS: 100, RUSH TDS: 1
Next Up Health Check
Injury Baker Mayfield

No Injury Reported

Injury Sam Darnold

No Injury Reported

Next Up Matchup Comparison
Matchups Baker Mayfield

Week 1
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Cincinnati Bengals

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
28.94416.2420133523.76
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 26th with 77.00 total points (4.53 avg).
  • Currently 150 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Decline in numbers lately by 4.5 PPG.

Defensive Stats

  • Ranked 31st in rush defense with 2607 (153.35 per game).
  • Ranked 27th in pass defense with 4469 (262.88 per game).
  • One of the worst in points against with 28.94 per game and currently ranked 30th among DST.
  • Currently ranked 23rd in Total TDs with 2 (0.12 per game) among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: +45.36, Turnovers: -5 Sacks: +3, INTs: -4, TDs: -1, Points Allowed: +3.53,

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 38, INT: 13, TDS: 4, PA/G: 30.8, YDS/G: 404.7
Matchups Sam Darnold

Week 1
Seattle Seahawks VS New England Patriots

PA/G YDS/G TO INT SACK TDs FSP
17.86264.6727154863.51
Compare to same point last season

Overview

  • Experts don"t even rank him among DST's. Either he is on a bye week or is just plain bad. Based on his stats from the past 30 days, he is currently ranked 3rd with 174.00 total points (8.29 avg).
  • Currently 53 points behind the leader: Seahawks DST
  • Average points in the past two weeks have dipped quite a bit at 8.3.

Defensive Stats

  • Top 10 in total yards against with 326.94 per game and is currently ranked 9th among DST.
  • Top 8 in rush defense with 1849 (108.76 per game) and is currently ranked 7th among DST.
  • Top 10 in pass defense with 3709 (218.18 per game) and is currently ranked 9th among DST.
  • Top 4 in points against with 18.82 per game and currently ranked 4th among DST.
  • Top 2 in Total TDs with 5 (0.29 per game) and currently ranked 2nd among DST.

Bonus Qualities

  • At this point in the season his numbers compared to last years: Total Yards Against: -80.45, Turnovers: +15 Sacks: +19, INTs: +8, TDs: +4, Points Allowed: -7.14,
  • Unfortunately two players have the same exact name and his rating may not be entirely accurate at this point. We are working on fixing situations like this!

Season Outlook

  • SACK: 36, INT: 13, TDS: 6, PA/G: 20, YDS/G: 313.7
Next Up Ratings Comparison
Rating Baker Mayfield
16.12
FantasySP Player Rating
Rating Sam Darnold
14.73
FantasySP Player Rating
Next Up Career Comparison
Career Baker Mayfield
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2018 CLE 14 3725 64% 27 14 93.7 131 0 6
2019 CLE 16 3827 59% 22 21 78.8 141 3 3
2020 CLE 16 3826 63% 29 8 97.2 168 1 4
2021 CLE 14 3010 61% 17 13 83.1 134 1 3
2022 CAR 12 2163 60% 10 8 79.0 89 1 2
2023 TB 16 4044 64% 28 10 94.6 163 1 3
2024 TB 16 4500 71% 41 16 106.8 378 3 2
2025 TB 16 3734 63% 27 13 88.3 401 1 3
ON PACE 72 16803 63% 122 59 88.3 1805 5 14
3-YEAR AVG 18 4383 66% 35 14 97.6 332 2 3
Totals 129 29904 63% 210 106 91.4 1670 11 27
Career Sam Darnold
PASS RUSH
YR TM GP YD CMP% TD INT RAT YD TD FUM
2018 NYJ 13 2865 58% 17 15 77.6 138 1 4
2019 NYJ 13 3024 62% 19 13 84.3 62 2 6
2020 NYJ 12 2208 60% 9 11 72.7 217 2 2
2021 CAR 12 2526 60% 9 13 71.9 222 5 4
2022 CAR 6 1143 59% 7 3 92.6 106 2 2
2023 SF 10 297 61% 2 1 85.1 15 1 1
2024 MIN 16 4319 66% 35 12 102.5 212 1 4
2025 SEA 16 4292 67% 27 14 100.1 94 0 6
ON PACE 72 19314 67% 122 63 100.1 423 0 27
3-YEAR AVG 15 3051 66% 22 9 99.9 113 1 4
Totals 105 21591 62% 131 83 87.1 1099 14 30
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RECENT DECISIONS

Latest from FSP

Player News

Matchups

Week 1
ARI @LAC
ATL @PIT
BAL @IND
BUF @HOU
CAR vs CHI
CIN vs TB
CLE @JAC
DAL @NYG
DEN @KC
DET vs NO
GB @MIN
LAR vs SF
LV vs MIA
NE @SEA
NYJ @TEN
PHI vs WAS
Matchup Time Pitchers
ARI vs PHI 03:40 EDT EST
ATH @TEX 02:35 EDT EST
ATL @WAS 01:05 EDT EST
BAL @COL 03:10 EDT EST
BOS vs SEA 04:10 EDT EST
CHC vs MIL 07:40 EDT EST
CHW @HOU 08:10 EDT EST
CIN vs SD 12:40 EDT EST
CLE vs TOR 06:40 EDT EST
DET @MIN 07:40 EDT EST
KC vs MIA 07:40 EDT EST
LAA vs NYY 09:38 EDT EST
LAD vs STL 10:10 EDT EST
NYM @TB 06:40 EDT EST
PIT vs SF 06:40 EDT EST
Matchup Time
No games scheduled
Matchup Time
No games scheduled