Outlook Chase Burns
Chase Burns looks to cap a two-start week in Milwaukee after an abbreviated outing in Los Angeles
Burns has been exceptionally sharp, posting a 2.20 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 8.2 innings across his last 14 days. Although he was lifted after just three hitless innings and 44 pitches on Monday against the Dodgers, he remains healthy as the number two starter for a fifth-place Reds club sitting at 69-77 on a three-game losing streak. With Hunter Greene sidelined for the year, Burns carries the rotation's highest upside.
The young sensation has far outperformed expectations, boasting a 15-3 record, a 2.77 ERA, and 176 strikeouts in 146 innings to easily outpace our projected 3.66 ERA. Armed with a devastating wipeout slider that generates a high strikeout rate, his breakout is supported by elite peripherals rather than luck. While Cincinnati may manage his pitch counts down the stretch, his bat-missing ability remains completely genuine.
Burns is on track to finish his two-start week on Sunday at Milwaukee, matching up against Kyle Harrison and his 4.15 ERA. While Milwaukee leads the division, Burns' punchout ceiling and sub-1.00 WHIP over the past two weeks make him an automatic play in all formats. Lock him in with confidence. Start.
Updated 1 day ago
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Outlook Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison's rotation spot is in jeopardy following a disastrous stretch
Harrison has cratered over the past month, posting an 18.28 ERA and 3.91 WHIP across 6.4 innings over his last 14 days while getting tagged for multiple home runs. Even as the first-place Brewers maintain a 91-56 record atop the NL Central on a three-game winning streak, Harrison's role as the third starter in the rotation is shaky, with manager Pat Murphy openly contemplating a bullpen demotion or a heavily truncated start.
Although our models project Harrison for a 4.24 ERA and 1.29 WHIP—mirroring his respectable 10-4 mark and 134 strikeouts across 107.4 innings this season—his current tailspin is not merely bad luck. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped following midseason physical setbacks, leaving his strikeout repertoire susceptible to elevated barrel rates.
Harrison is tentatively lined up for a single start on Sunday against Cincinnati, opposing Chase Burns and his stellar 2.77 ERA. With the Brewers preparing to deploy a piggyback long reliever on a short hook, he carries virtually no path to a quality start and tremendous ratio downside. Sit.
Updated 1 day ago
