Fantasy Baseball 2024 Draft Busts at Each Position: J.T. Realmuto, Paul Goldschmidt, Trea Turner, Aaron Judge and More

Identifying one player at each position who will be a draft bust in 2024.

Every fantasy owner is hoping to identify every draft steal they can before a draft takes place. It’s just as important to know which players aren’t going to live up to the hype and be draft busts.

Today, I’m going to go through the FantasySP Average Draft Position list and identify one player at each position who will be a draft bust in 2024. Before opening the list and looking at all the names, I decided to limit myself to players being picked inside the top 10 spots at each position.

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Catcher

The top-10 list of catchers is strong, which makes this a difficult choice. After thinking things over a bit, I have landed on Philadelphia Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto as the biggest draft bust among catchers. He’s the fourth catcher off draft boards and going around pick 98 right now.

Realmuto hit a career low .252 last season (in the seasons aside from his rookie year). He got on base at a .310 clip and drove in just 63 runs. He scored 70 times and stole 16 bases, but both of those numbers dropped from 2022.

Realmuto is nearly 33 years old, and he’s projected to hit in the bottom half of the order in 2024. He finished eighth amongst catchers in points leagues in 2023 and I don’t think he’ll improve enough this season to match him being the fourth catcher off draft boards.

First Base

First base is one of my favorite fantasy positions, at least for the first several options, so this is another hard choice. I’m going with St. Louis Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt as my 1B bust. He’s the sixth first baseman off draft boards at pick 57.5.

Goldy hit just .268 a season ago, which was one of the lowest marks of his 13-year career. He still got on base at a .363 clip, but he finished with 25 homers, 80 RBIs and 89 runs scored, significantly down from 2022 despite playing in three more games and getting 36 more plate appearances.

Goldschmidt will still hit in the top part of the order, giving him plenty of opportunities to be a bounceback fantasy candidate, but I just don’t see him finishing as the sixth-best 1B. He placed 10th at the position last year.

Second Base

At the second base position, I’ll say that New York Mets’ Jeff McNeil is my bust option. He’s the ninth 2B off draft boards at pick 128.64.

McNeil has had varied results over the past several seasons. He’s hit between .251-.326 over the past three seasons, punching in at .270 a season ago. His RBIs and extra base hits were down a season ago as well.

He was the 10th-best scoring second baseman in 2023, so while his ADP reflects that pretty well, I see another down season for McNeil coming, and if he can’t play in 156 games like last year, he’s unlikely to reach some of the stats he had last season.

Shortstop

My pick for shortstop is Philadelphia’s Trea Turner. He’s the second SS off draft boards at pick 29.98.

Turner struggled in his first season with Philly, posting a .266 average and .320 on-base percentage across 155 games. He had more home runs than in 2022, but less RBIs (100-76) and total hits (194-170).

He’s a bounceback candidate, but I don’t see him finishing as SS2. He came in fifth among SS last year. I don’t think he’ll be a huge bust, but I also don’t think he should be going this early after what he did last season, which qualifies him as a bit of a bust in my book.

Third Base

I hate to say this because I love watching young players take over the game, but I see Baltimore Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson being the bust at third base. He is the fifth 3B off draft boards at pick 43.59.

Henderson played in 150 games in his first full MLB season, tallying a .255 average and .325 on-base percentage. He had a .259 average in his first taste of the big leagues in 2022, so it’s possible this is the average Henderson might have in his MLB career.

Of course, he’s also just 22 years old, so there’s definitely still time to improve that average, which would likely bump all his numbers. I just don’t see a huge increase coming this season.

He was the ninth-best fantasy 3B in 2023, and I don’t see him jumping all the way to fifth this year.

Outfield

With three outfield spots to go through, the first 10 outfielders are off draft boards by pick 23, which doesn’t leave many great bust options. I’m going with New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge as my pick. He’s the seventh OF off draft boards at pick 14.41.

I covered Judge in depth in a story about his toe, which is expected to bother him over the rest of his career. His numbers were pretty much the same (with the biggest difference being a big drop in his average) after he returned from the initial injury last year, but it could limit him over the course of a full season.

He can be a good fantasy asset with his power numbers alone, but he’s unlikely to finish as a top-10 outfielder without a better average. Judge also didn’t steal a base post-injury, which takes away another part of what makes him such a great fantasy asset.

I just don’t see Judge being a top-10 outfielder this season. There’s the injury concern and what we’ve seen after the toe injury was simply OK. I still think he should be one of the first 10 outfielders off draft boards, but at least 10 or so picks later.

Starting Pitcher

I’ve written a couple stories about how I think starting pitchers' ADPs are too high right now, so that gives me some extra bust options. My pick is Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes, who is the fourth SP off the board at pick 16.3.

Burnes will pitch for a better team than he has been on the past couple seasons, which could allow him to earn a few more wins. His earned run average has risen in four straight seasons and now he joins a much tougher division, which will only make things tougher. 

I’ve noted that I like Burnes about 10 or so picks later than where he’s currently going, and I’d personally feel much better about him about 20 picks later. He was the 10th-highest scoring SP in 2023, and I don’t see him improving to match him being the fourth SP off boards this season.

Relief Pitcher

Picking a bust amongst closers seems a bit easier than the other positions, because any top-end closer can have a down season. I’m going with Minnesota Twins’ Jhoan Duran, who is the seventh closer off draft boards at pick 93.43.

He’s been great in his first couple MLB seasons, but his ERA did rise 0.59 last season. He only finished with 27 saves a season ago, which ranked 15th in the league. Duran strikes out a ton of batters to make up the difference in saves.

Duran finished 13th among fantasy closers last season, and while he could improve, I don’t see him finishing in the top seven. Each year, it seems that hitters are able to handle top-end fastballs more and more, and that’s Duran’s specialty. I see his ERA going up again, and with not as many saves as some of the top-end fantasy options, I see him closer to the 10th-best closer than inside the top seven.

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