Paul Skenes Fantasy Outlook with First MLB Start Upcoming
Discussing Pirates' prospect Paul Skenes as a fantasy option after he was announced as the team's starter for Saturday.
The (short) wait is over. Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher prospect Paul Skenes will make his anticipated MLB debut this coming Saturday.
Let’s take a look at his minor league numbers so far in 2024, then discuss his fantasy outlook in the MLB and then finally discuss Saturday’s matchup.
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Skenes’ Minor League Numbers
Skenes was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. He starred at LSU in college, and has dominated in his short time in the minor leagues.
At Triple-A this season, Skenes has a stellar 0.99 earned run average across seven starts and 27 1/3 innings. He’s allowed four runs (three earned) on 17 hits and eight walks, while striking out a whopping 45 batters. His WHIP figure is a fantastic 0.91.
Skenes hasn’t pitched deep enough into games to pick up any wins, but that appears to be the Pirates plan - limit the youngster’s innings as often as possible this season to try to keep him healthy for the long haul.
Skenes made five starts after being drafted last summer. He had a 5.40 ERA across three minor league levels. Skenes only pitched 6 2/3 innings, but flashed his potential with 10 strikeouts.
The righty is the No. 3 prospect in all of baseball, and the first pitcher on the list. He’s got an 80-grade fastball, along with a 70-grade slider and 55-grade changeup. Skenes has a 60 mark for control and a 65 for his overall number.
He’s 6’6 and 235 pounds, so he’s definitely an intimidating presence when on the mound, especially when he can hit triple-digits with his fastball every pitch.
Skenes’ Fantasy Outlook
It was only a matter of time before Skenes got called up. He’s simply too dominant for the minor leagues, and needs to start getting acclimated with the MLB. You don’t draft a player first overall to stash them in the minor leagues, especially when they are dominating at the highest minor league level.
Unfortunately, Skenes joins a Pirates team that has one of the worst offenses in the league, which could make it hard for him to earn many wins. Still, if he’s striking out a bunch of batters and not allowing many runs, Skenes can still be a solid fantasy asset.
Based on the innings he’s pitched in his minor league starts this season, I’d assume the Pirates are going to monitor him closely in the MLB too. We might not get to see Skenes fully unleashed this season, which is a bummer. If he can be efficient with his pitch counts, there’s a chance he could go six or seven innings in starts, but I think it’s more likely he gets four or five innings in most outings.
I think a lot of fantasy owners share that sentiment, as I was a bit surprised to see his own percentage around 75% at the time of publication. I’d be shocked if that number doesn’t rise by the time he starts on Saturday, but fantasy owners might want to see the MLB plan for Skenes before being fully sold on him as a fantasy asset.
Skenes is definitely more valuable in dynasty leagues right now, but he does have some value in redraft leagues, especially if he can keep a low ERA and strike out a bunch of batters - even if he only makes 4-5 inning starts every time out.
Skenes’ Saturday Matchup
Skenes will pitch in Pittsburgh on Saturday, and I’d be shocked if the stadium isn’t nearly 100% full. He will battle the Chicago Cubs.
Chicago is below average in MLB hitting ranks for average, hits and strikeouts. The Cubs are above average when it comes to scoring runs, hitting homers and drawing walks.
I think this sets up as a pretty good test for Skenes. The Cubs really aren’t great at anything, but they also don’t really struggle in a lot of areas. A strong outing against the Cubs would definitely make Skenes a sought-after fantasy player.
The thing we mentioned before is that the Pirates struggle to score runs, so they might not put Skenes in a position to win. We’ll have to see how the game unfolds, but if the Pirates can’t give Skenes a lead early on, we’ll get to see how the youngster responds. Some rookies try to do too much and get shelled as a result. Being a top prospect, you’d hope that Skenes just sticks to the gameplan for as long as he’s on the mound.
Be sure to check back next week, where we will mention how Skenes fared in his first MLB action and break things down a bit.
#2024-fantasy-baseball #prospects #dynasty
