Fantasy Baseball Approach to Aaron Judge's Toe Injury

Discussing the toe injury Aaron Judge is dealing with and how it might impact his fantasy value.

Aaron Judge has been one of the most polarizing figures in the MLB over the past few seasons. He’s a home run threat every time he steps to the plate, and he puts up pretty strong numbers across the board to be a good fantasy asset.

He made headlines earlier in the week not because of anything he did on the field, but for what he said in a press conference. Judge said that the toe injury he dealt with in 2023 is one that might need “constant maintenance” for the rest of his career. His full interview can be found here.

Let’s dive into Judge’s numbers from a season ago and see how the injury may have affected him. After that, we can help you determine where he should be going in fantasy drafts as a result.

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Judge’s 2023 Season

Judge played in 106 games a season ago, finishing with a .267 average and .406 on-base percentage. He had 98 total hits, 53 of which went for extra bases (including 37 homers). Judge drove in 75 runs and scored 79 times himself.

Judge was injured crashing into the fence at Dodger Stadium on June 3. The next time Judge took the field was July 28. 

Before the injury, Judge had a .291 average, .404 on-base percentage, 29 extra-base hits (19 homers) among his 51 hits, 40 RBIs and 42 runs scored. It’s also noteworthy that he stole three bases over his first 49 games.

Judge played 57 games after returning, so it’ll be pretty easy to see if he was able to replicate his early season numbers.

Judge hit .245, but got on base at a .408 clip. He managed just 47 total hits, but did homer 18 times - he had 24 extra-base hits total. Judge drove in 35 runs, scored 37 times and did not steal a base.

While Judge came close to matching his numbers pre-injury, his production fell off after the injury. It didn’t seem to take any power away, but it limited him a touch on the bases. The big issue is the much lower average. The homers are great, but if he can’t hit above .250, his fantasy value is impacted in a negative way.

Judge’s Fantasy Outlook

Looking at his dropoff after the injury and then hearing Judge say he might need maintenance is definitely not a great sign for his fantasy outlook.

It’s difficult to project what his numbers might look this season, but just using the post-injury numbers and then multiplying those numbers to fill a full 162-game season, you get the following totals (rounded up): 134 hits, 68 extra-base hits (51 homers), 99 RBIs and 105 runs scored. Even if you don’t get any steals out of him, those are fantastic numbers (even despite a lower average).

Of course, the word maintenance implies that he might not be able to play every day. Only time will tell how often Judge can play, but for the sake of this article, let’s say he misses a game per week. His numbers fall to: 112 hits, 58 extra-base hits (43 homers), 84 RBIs and 89 runs scored. While those definitely fall short of some of his monster years, they are pretty much in line with a lot of his other years (just with a lower average).

So to sum things up, while an injury concern is definitely something to note, as long as Judge doesn’t miss extended time (something that’s happened three times over his eight-year career, excluding the COVID season), he’s still going to provide plenty of fantasy value.

How to Proceed with Judge

As of the time this article was published, the FantasySP Average Draft Position data says that Judge is ranked 12th and being taken at pick 14.33 on average. I’m assuming this toe maintenance news is going to drop both of those numbers a touch, but how far should he fall?

There’s injury risk with every MLB player over the course of a 162-game season, but I’d say the concern is a little more warranted with Judge given what he said this week. I think his power potential every time he steps to the plate trumps his injury concerns, as he’s a daily fantasy starter and one of the best fantasy hitters in the game when out there.

I was personally not as high on Judge as others coming into the season, but still believed he should be a second-round pick in fantasy drafts. You can see my ideal first-round picks in this article. 

In redraft leagues, after my initial 10 players, I’d also prefer Fernando Tatis Jr. and Matt Olson before Judge, but then would be OK taking him starting at pick 13. 

Depending on how my actual draft would go, there’s a chance Judge could fall a couple spots if some other players (like Trea Turner, Gerrit Cole, Yordan Alvarez) go before pick 13. But really getting Judge anywhere between picks 13-17 seems right, even after the maintenance comments. If you can get him any later than that, it’s probably going to be a steal.

Judge is 31 years old, so his dynasty value isn’t quite as high to me. He’d probably only “fall” to pick 16 or so. Even playing 75-85% of seasons, he’s got a chance to club 40 homers, and his ceiling is as high as anyones if he can get full seasons in.

So to finish up my original thought on if the maintenance news should alter my/your fantasy view on Judge, the answer is no. Might fantasy owners pass on Judge with some uncertainty surrounding him? Sure, but last year’s post-injury numbers say there’s not much to worry about, so that’s how I’m approaching this season.

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