4 Rookies to Fade in Best-Ball Leagues: Marvin Harrison Jr., Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers and Jonathon Brooks

So I'm fading some of the biggest rookies in best-ball leagues, allow me to explain.

These are the fantasy football rookies I'm looking to fade in best-ball leagues. Yesterday, I covered four late-round rookies I'm targeting in best-ball to provide deeper average draft position (ADP) values to the forefront. 

For today's exercise, you do not need to avoid these players outright. This isn't about making big calls like any of these rookies will be busts. In best-ball, assuming you're drafting many teams, it's more about limiting your exposure to certain players. You often hear fantasy managers talk about having shares in players, and that's how you should try to view it. 

The main reason I would recommend avoiding any player is their ADP cost on draft day. It has very little to do with evaluation or believing I'm an NFL scout who can see something that you can't.

I view the game in a talent-neutral way. Sure, I have gut feelings about certain guys, but I have the self-awareness to understand I only know what I see and read. And you have to accept that you see and read very little of the actual process of what an NFL player is doing to better themselves: their diet, workouts, commitment to the game, how much they love it, how important it is to them to be the best, what's going on in their head, how the coaches feel, what the coaches are doing and the list goes on. 

And what of what you know is second-hand information, viewed through the lens of a beat writer or the opinions of a talking head. And even if you're watching highlights and lowlights, those are curated by another person. And even if you're watching the all-22 game tape, there's an athlete's life off the field and what goes on in their head. And even with all the data in the world, there's luck at play. I'm just trying to demonstrate that it's a big world out there.

So again, I accept what I know and understand it's very little. With that out of the way, I'm fading these rookies at each fantasy position.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

It's fair to have a negative opinion of all things Commanders. Because I do. It's been a long time since they were good. But there's new ownership, coaches and front office people. I'm sure it's a new day in Washington. 

While I appreciate Daniels' talent, speed and big arm, I still don't see enough of a supporting cast for sustained fantasy success.

A lot of Daniels's success came from tucking it and running, and from my eye, what looks like a great timely decision to many analysts looks like a player who bails early. We're talking about fractions of a second, and what is a graceful gallop into the open field in college is a firm tackle to the sternum in the NFL. 

Furthermore, when Daniels connected on intermediate to deep routes, there were many broken coverages. Given his arm talent, Daniels can certainly make many big throws; I do not see any advanced prospect, not yet anyway. 

I don't believe Daniels is a bust, but based on his best-ball ADP (QB17, 117), this puts him in the same range as guys like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. To keep it 100, if you're taking Daniels over that trio, this game might not be for you. Can Daniels outproduce them? Sure, it's in the range of outcomes. But I view Daniels as at least one tier lower.

Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers

The running back player pool has defined tiers. You have your elites, and for the sake of generalizing, let's call it a Top 6 (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor).

Then you have a big Tier 2 and 3 that goes from RB7 Kyren Williams down to David Montgomery around RB20. Once you get past RB20, I don't want to say something reckless like "all bets are off." A better way to look at it is you want more dart throws. You want more options, not necessarily specific players. In best-ball, who is going to be slotted as your RB2 or flex starter in any given week is a complete mystery. So Brooks falls in this range of being your potential RB2 or the first guy of your bench.

These situations are so fluid in-season. Best-ball removes the weekly task of picking your starters, but in any given week, somebody's hurt, somebody's on a bye, the team is using more of a committee approach and so on - any given Sunday. So, ultimately, you need bulk. We're shopping at Costco. Let's load up the cart! You can delude yourself into believing you're surgical with your choices, but the running back game can boil down to availability since we can't control timing.

That said, Jonathan Brooks is only six months out from an ACL tear. From everything I've read about ACL recovery times, they range from 9 to 12 months. The low end of that range puts him right on the edge of the start of the NFL season. I love Brooks' tape, but sometimes, it's as simple as getting on the field.

His ADP (RB33, 98) is being drafted alongside fellow rookie Trey Benson, Zack Moss and just ahead of Brian Robinson Jr. and Tyjae Spears. Moss appears to be the Bengals' RB1, and Benson, Robinson and Spears are all in favorable spots to carve out a complementary role. This is preferable to a guy who could sit for a month and need another month to get a feel for the pro game.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

Is he a generational talent? Yes. Is he in a great spot? Yes. Am I being too risk-averse? Probably. 

It's fair to draft MHJ. He's just too expensive for my tastes. If he fell in drafts just a half-tier or so, I'd happily take him, but the rookie is being drafted right behind Davante Adams. Harrison's best-ball ADP is WR10 and he's being drafted 17th overall. The value may make perfect sense to a lot of people, but I'm just not there yet, and a lot of that has to do with my feelings about Kyler Murray.

I've never been a believer, and too much of his fantasy value is derived from rushing. In my evaluation, Murray's ability to stay in the pocket and make on-time throws with good timing and footwork leaves a lot to be desired. Maybe that's not a big deal or an issue to you; that's fine. It is a problem for me.

Again, this isn't a call to say MHJ will bust. He is so good, and he could be the first rookie receiver to ever finish as the top fantasy receiver, period. It's in the range of outcomes and so is him not being anywhere close to the Top 10.

We're in an era where Mike Evans is the WR19, Cooper Kupp is at WR21, and Rashee Rice, arguably the best-performing WR in one of the best offenses ever with GOAT 2.0 at QB, is at WR30. I'm just saying you can load up on receiver later than ever before. And among the big names in Harrison's ADP range, I don't mind players on either side of him.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Unfortunately, I've painted myself in a corner by covering each position, and only a few tight ends fit the bill. Only Brock Bowers and Ja'Tavian Sanders are being drafted in the Top 200, and Sanders is right at No. 200. The consequences of who you take that late aren't that serious so I'll share my thoughts on Bowers's best-ball ADP. However, Bowers occupies a sweet spot in the current rankings. Bowers's ADP is TE9, 86th overall.

I say sweet spot because the tight end going before Bowers, Evan Engram, is being drafted at 71. So we've got a decent gap between Bowers and Engram of more than a round. To get in the weeds, I like him closer to his 86th overall. The next two tight ends, David Njoku and Jake Ferguson have ADPs of 90 and 94, so it's a small three-player run where three TEs go within a round of each other.

In this very specific scenario which is unlikely to happen exactly as explained here, I'm cool with it. I'm even more cool with it if Njoku and Ferguson go ahead of Bowers, and maybe the rookie slips into the mid-90s. That would be so perfect. 

What would concern me is taking Bowers significantly ahead of 86, and then we're passing on guys like Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, Javonte Williams or Diontae Johnson. I understand we're getting into personal preference, but I really value securing my RB3 or WR4 in this range instead of taking a tight end if I've held off on the position for this long already. 

A couple of the best-ball ADP sources have Bowers averaged out as high as 75, which means he's sometimes ahead of that spot, approaching the ADP of guys like David Montgomery, Jordan Love or Chris Godwin. That's bold and definitely too pricey for me. This is why it's important to mock frequently to get a feel for where player values sit for you so you can parse out specific situations, like if Bowers goes early or slides down the draft board.

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