Which NFL Teams Draft Fantasy Contributors Best? AFC South Edition
A look through the players at fantasy-relevant positions drafted by the teams in the AFC South over the last five years.
Every offseason offers the chance for a team to redefine itself. That might start with the front office and coaching staff, which will inevitably flow to the roster. Bringing in a star player at the most important position in the game changes a team’s identity, as the jobs of everyone involved revolve around the success of a franchise quarterback.
Let’s go through the past half-decade of drafts to see which teams have found good fantasy players; this could help identify guys to grab in your fantasy draft in their rookie seasons, especially in dynasty leagues. The AFC South is a seemingly up-and-coming division, with all four teams projected to start quarterbacks on their rookie contracts; young skill players will need to produce to help their developing QBs.
Method
I looked at the past five drafts at quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends drafted by each team and classified each as an “Impact Player,” “Bust,” or “Other.”
Impact players are generally starters or at least fantasy relevant. I only considered busts from the first second, and third rounds, as picks after that point generally hit at a lower rate and are lottery tickets more than anything else.
Most players were included, but some guys who barely played or didn’t make the team were excluded. Draft histories from Pro Football Reference were used.
Houston Texans
It’s lean here in the early years: Nico Collins was the only skill player taken in the first three rounds between 2019-2021. A few recent hits have made this a playoff team, though, with a chance to control the division.
Impact Players
- WR Nico Collins, 3rd Round 2021
- RB Damien Pierce, 4th Round 2022
- QB C.J. Stroud, 1st Round 2023
- WR Tank Dell, 3rd Round 2023
Stroud unlocks the pass catchers here. Collins had more receptions, yards and touchdowns in 2023 than he did in his first two seasons combined. Dell gained over 700 yards and scored seven touchdowns in just 11 games, making an instant connection with his quarterback. This trio looks to be a great offensive core.
Pierce had over 900 yards and four touchdowns in 2022 but saw those numbers cut in half in 2023, when he lost the starting job to Devin Singletary. The team traded for Joe Mixon this offseason and signed him to an extension, so Pierce may have already shown his best in Houston.
Busts
- TE Kahale Warring, 3rd Round 2019
Warring has barely made a statistical impact in his career, bouncing around the league at the bottom of rosters.
Others Drafted
- QB Davis Mills, 3rd Round 2021
- TE Brevin Jordan, 5th Round 2021
- WR John Metchie, 2nd Round 2022
- WR Xavier Hutchinson, 6th Round 2023
Mills was a five-star recruit out of high school but entered the NFL with lower expectations. There was still a glimmer of hope that he could become a star because of his pedigree, but his time starting for the team was underwhelming, leading the Texans to take Stroud last year. Mills will play for many years as a backup.
Metchie may join the “Bust” list for reasons out of his control. He was injured during his last year in college then diagnosed with leukemia after being drafted, taking his focus away from football. He hasn’t made much of an impact, and this season may be his last chance in Houston.
Indianapolis Colts
Impact Players
- WR Michael Pittman, 2nd Round 2020
- RB Jonathan Taylor, 2nd Round 2020
- WR Alec Pierce, 2nd Round 2022
- QB Anthony Richardson, 1st Round 2023
- WR Josh Downs, 3rd Round 2023
Pittman and Taylor have both signed extensions over the past year, while Pierce and Downs make up the receiving ranks with decent play in their young careers. The franchise hitched its wagon to Richardson last year, though, when they drafted him fourth overall and inserted him into the starting lineup immediately.
Richardson showed a lot of the natural ability that made him a high draft pick, but he also suffered multiple injuries, including one to his shoulder that ended his season after appearing in only four games. The next five years for this team will depend on Richardson staying healthy and developing into a star.
Busts
- WR Parris Campbell, 2nd Round 2019
Just one true early miss here. Campbell had 623 yards in 2022 but otherwise has never reached 200 and is now with the Giants.
Others Drafted
- QB Jacob Eason, 4th Round 2020
- TE Kylen Granson, 4th Round 2021
- QB Sam Ehlinger, 6th Round 2021
- TE Jelani Woods, 3rd Round 2022
- TE Andrew Ogletree, 6th Round 2022
- TE Will Mallory, 5th Round 2023
- RB Evan Hull, 5th Round 2023
You will see some of these names peppering the depth chart, with Granson offering the most so far but still failing to hit 400 yards in any of three seasons. Drafting developmental quarterbacks is a good way to find a cheap backup, and that’s about the best these two passers were projected to be.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Impact Players
- QB Trevor Lawrence, 1st Round 2021
- RB Travis Etienne, 1st Round 2021
These two Clemson teammates joined the Jaguars together, though Etienne missed his whole rookie season with an injury. The franchise is on the shoulders of Lawrence, who may have disappointed so far, but he also had unfair expectations to enter the league as a superstar. Going into just his fourth year, Lawrence still has big potential.
Busts
- TE Josh Oliver, 3rd Round 2019
Oliver played only four games for the Jaguars and has since suited up for Baltimore and Minnesota, averaging about 110 yards and one touchdown per year over his four seasons.
Others Drafted
- RB Ryquell Armstead, 5th Round 2019
- QB Gardner Minshew, 6th Round 2019
- WR Laviska Shenault, 2nd Round 2020
- WR Collin Johnson, 5th Round 2020
- QB Jake Luton, 6th Round 2020
- TE Tyler Davis, 6th Round 2020
- TE Luke Farrell, 5th Round 2021
- RB Snoop Conner, 5th Round 2022
- TE Brenton Strange, 2nd Round 2023
- RB Tank Bigsby, 3rd Round 2023
- WR Parker Washington, 6th Round 2023
A lot of names here without much to show. Minshew has been a productive NFL player, especially considering his draft status. He might get a chance to start all season for the Raiders in 2024. Shenault was over 600 yards in both of his first two seasons but was then traded to the Panthers for late-round picks; he combined for just 37 receptions over the last two years.
Most others are anonymous, with the 2023 draft picks still unproven. The Jags have taken a lot of swings at the skill positions and mostly come up with underwhelming results, finding many bench players.
Tennessee Titans
Impact Players
- WR A.J. Brown, 2nd Round 2019
The best player Tennessee drafted during this time was traded at the end of his rookie contract, one of many reasons the team has fallen off over the last few seasons. Brown has excelled as one of the best receivers in the league in Philadelphia.
Busts
- RB Darrynton Evans, 3rd Round 2020
- WR Treylon Burks, 1st Round 2022
- QB Malik Willis, 3rd Round 2022
It may be unfair to label him a bust after just two seasons and 22 games, but Burks was touted as a replacement for Brown, an unfair expectation and near impossibility given Brown’s performance since being traded.
Willis got a chance in his rookie year when Ryan Tannehill was injured; he underwhelmed to the point that the team signed Joshua Dobbs off another team’s practice squad and inserted him into the starting lineup while fighting for the playoffs. The drafting of Will Levis in the second round in 2023 likely ended Willis’ chances of being the future in Tennessee.
Evans came from a smaller school (Appalachian State) and failed to adapt in the big leagues; he has topped out at 121 rushing yards in four seasons.
Others Drafted
- WR Dez Fitzpatrick, 4th Round 2021
- WR Racey McMath, 6th Round 2021
- RB Hassan Haskins, 4th Round 2022
- TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, 4th Round 2022
- WR Kyle Phillips, 5th Round 2022
- QB Will Levis, 2nd Round 2023
- RB Tyjae Spears, 3rd Round 2023
- TE Josh Whyle, 5th Round 2023
- WR Colton Dowell, 7th Round 2023
Like Jacksonville, the Titans have shopped in bulk for skill players later in the draft and mostly found unremarkable options. Levis will get every chance to secure the starting quarterback job after showing good flashes but inconsistency in his first season. Spears had a path to the starting lineup before the team signed Tony Pollard in free agency.
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