NFL Draft Round 1 Winners and Losers: Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew, the Kansas City Chiefs and More
A look at some of the players, teams and groups who saw their franchise either excel or falter in Round 1.
The first night of the NFL draft featured a few exciting moves that shook up the futures of multiple teams at the sport’s most important position. As with any event that we turn into a competition for no reason, there are winners and losers at the end of the day.
Some of these winners and losers are directly related to draft picks, and others are feeling the ripple effects of one or more selections in Round 1. Let’s run through some players, teams and groups who gained a clear win or suffered a clear loss on Thursday night.
Winners: D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, Keenan Allen and the rest of the Chicago offense
Caleb Williams is entering the league as a superstar prospect, so Chicago will be hoping for immediate contributions to winning games. This team could follow Houston’s blueprint from 2023 and see a rookie upgrade at quarterback propel them into the playoffs.
From a fantasy perspective, Moore, Kmet, ninth overall pick Rome Odunze and others will benefit from the upgrade from Justin Fields to Williams. Fields is a great athlete but has failed to develop his passing to a high level. Williams is likely to outplay any season from Fields in his rookie year.
Odunze will fight for targets with the other pass catchers, but there should be enough to go around that everyone can be relevant in fantasy. It’s risky to expect high-level play from rookies, but Williams and Odunze both look ready to perform immediately.
Loser: The Minnesota Vikings’ future draft capital
After trading next year’s second-round pick as part of a package to acquire Houston’s pick at No. 23 prior to the draft, Minnesota traded up from both of their first-round slots, giving up third- and fourth-round picks in 2025 in the process (along with mid- and late-round selections this year changing hands out of Minnesota’s favor).
That leaves the Vikings with one pick in the first round and two picks in the fifth round next year. That’s it; three picks. They got their guys in quarterback J.J. McCarthy and pass rusher Dallas Turner (whom many saw as the top edge rusher in the class), but Minnesota is betting heavily on the current team.
It could turn into a disastrous string of decisions, particularly if McCarthy struggles to transition to the pros. This could either be two pieces of the next great Vikings team or the chain of moves that sets the franchise back and leads to firings.
Winner: Every quarterback who got a new receiver or offensive lineman
This is considered an elite class at both wide receiver and offensive tackle, and Day 1 saw no less than 15 combined players selected at those positions (depending on how you want to classify a few linemen). Patrick Mahomes, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence are among the guys who added new starters to their supporting cast.
It’s an offensive league more than ever before, and teams aren’t afraid to lean into trends. A great draft class at those positions led to a lot of happy quarterbacks Thursday night.
Loser: Kirk Cousins
The one quarterback who can clearly be called a loser on the night, Cousins watched his team draft his eventual replacement rather than supplement a team that is the likely favorite in their division. Despite signing Cousins to a deal worth up to four years and $160 million, Atlanta used the eighth overall pick on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Reports soon started that Cousins was “confused” by the pick, and he’s not the only one. With clear holes at pass rusher and cornerback, the Falcons could have taken the top prospect at either position. Expecting a rookie to play at a high level all year is unfair, but the Falcons could have had a young player potentially playing his best football heading into the playoffs as he adapts to the league.
Penix likely won’t play for a few years; something went wrong if he’s on the field for an extended stretch in 2024. It’s hard to remember that the draft is about the future, not the present. Green Bay did this twice and landed Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love; this might work.
For the time being, though, this looks like a playoff contender missing a chance to upgrade a needy defense with a premium pick.
Losers: AFC defenses
I mentioned how many highly touted prospects entered the league in Round 1, but it’s worth highlighting Xavier Worthy. He ran the fastest recorded 40-yard dash ever at the combine, and he just joined the best quarterback in football.
Tyreek Hill was devastating when paired with Mahomes and continues to be one of the best receivers in football. Expecting anyone to live up to Hill's standard is unrealistic, but adding one of the fastest players in the league who also has good hands means Mahomes might have his new deep ball connection that has been missing since Hill was traded.
Kansas City’s opponents just saw them add a first-round talent to fill one of their biggest holes; if they find a good left tackle, it will be a long season for everyone trying to stop the Chiefs.
Winners: Playoff contenders looking for defensive talent
The first 14 picks were all offensive players. That’s insane. Part of it was the over-drafting of quarterbacks, and many of the best defensive prospects were pushed to the back half of Round 1.
This wasn’t a surprise, as many mock drafts projected one or zero defensive players in the top 10. What it means, though, is those teams choosing late in the first round (mostly playoff teams) were able to grab the top prospects on D.
The Eagles, Lions, and Ravens drafted the only three cornerbacks taken on the first day at picks 22, 24 and 30, respectively. The top defensive linemen went at 15, 16, 17, 19 and 21. A lot of really good players joined good teams.
They won’t all perform well right away, as most players take time to adapt, but successful teams with clear defensive needs were able to draft high-level prospects at good value.
Winners: Fantasy football players
A lot of guys likely to be relevant in fantasy over the next few years were drafted on Thursday night. Chicago’s Williams will elicit memories of C.J. Stroud tearing up the league as a rookie, and some will expect a similar start with Williams surrounded by a great core of talent.
Marvin Harrison Jr. might be drafted among the top five receivers in fantasy this year. Malik Nabers and Odunze were top-10 picks expected to make an immediate impact like recent rookie receivers.
The rookie fantasy star of 2024 might be Jayden Daniels, though. Daniels’ best current trait is his running ability, and he will likely be scrambling and carrying the ball on designed runs. I was all over Anthony Richardson before last season, and I will be the same with Daniels this year. He is likely to start from Week 1 and rack up rushing yards immediately while having a true top option in Terry McLaurin at receiver.
Many of the guys chosen this weekend will have fantasy value at some point in 2024, and the players from Day 1 offer plenty of immediate value.
Loser (for now): Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen
This may change, as the Bills now own the first pick of the second round, but Allen currently doesn’t have a new top receiver after 32 picks. Wide receiver is the team’s biggest hole after they lost Gabe Davis in free agency and traded Stefon Diggs. Everything points toward a receiver being chosen to start Day 2.
What would really turn Allen into a winner, though, is if they were able to flip that pick for a veteran receiver, like Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk. Both players could possibly be free agents next year, so a trade would likely include an extension, but the Bills could improve their 2024 roster more while still adding a young receiver to lead the team.
Winner: Gardner Minshew
Assuming the veteran wins the quarterback job in Las Vegas, he will be throwing to a quartet of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, 2023 second-round tight end Michael Mayer and 13th overall pick Brock Bowers. (Back-to-back tight ends with alliterative names…I like it.)
There are a lot of quarterbacks who will be jealous of that group. Young tight ends take time to develop, but Bowers is seen as a special prospect, often compared to George Kittle. If he hits the ground running and Mayer develops in his second year, it might be hard to stop a versatile Vegas passing game.
Losers: Fans of the Bills, Browns and Texans
I mentioned above that Buffalo traded out of the first round; they were one of three teams, along with Cleveland and Houston, to not make a selection in Round 1. It’s not always the worst thing to trade out of the first day, as Buffalo and Houston gained a lot of value, but it’s kind of a bummer when you don’t have a player to go to bed dreaming about the way 29 other teams do.
Each has a pick in the second round and will presumably choose at least one player on Friday, so hang tight, fans of first-rounder-less teams.
Losers: The blood pressures of Atlanta, Denver and Minnesota fans
These three teams added the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-best quarterbacks in this draft. It’s going to go poorly for at least one of them, and likely more, along with one or two of the guys who went in the top three. The Falcons, Broncos and Vikings severely over-drafted their passers, though.
Quarterbacks will always be drafted higher, but each team left a lot of value on the board with their picks, particularly the Falcons and Broncos. We already talked about the Cousins/Penix dilemma, but Denver is on the other side of the coin.
The Broncos have a weak collection of talent, featuring a few high-level players but an underwhelming roster. They aren’t ready to compete. They are missing years of high draft picks because of trades for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton.
Rather than trying to build a base of talent, they reached for Oregon’s Bo Nix at No. 12, the sixth quarterback taken. Again, it’s not going to end well for a few of these teams. I see Denver never finding success with Nix due to the lack of surrounding talent and having to start over again in a few years with a new quarterback and coach.
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