12-Team Half-PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Taking Anthony Richardson, Keon Coleman, Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr. and Troy Franklin
The mother of learning is repetition. That's why you should add a fantasy football mock draft to your daily routine.
Before I dive into my ramblings, I want to cover the basics of this fantasy football mock draft exercise. This is a 12-team half-point superflex draft in which you need one quarterback, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one superflex, one flex, one kicker and one team defense.
With that out of the way…
Every fantasy football mock draft offers something to glean, something to learn, something to avoid, something to embrace... something. It's a great way to waste time in May when draft season feels a million miles away and to keep a steady feel for the player pool. Repetition is the mother of learning, as they say.
Within the world of mock drafts, I mean creating them for consumption. It's a bit of a circlejerk. I could sit here for an hour, run 20 mock drafts, and pick the one that most aligns with a perfect run for my tastes. Even if we disagree about each decision, I can minimize the "mistakes" and create some idyllic draft experience just by sheer brute force.
I don't believe in that. I'm a man of integrity. It's tacky. Running so many mocks is also a colossal waste of time. It's more true to life to not fine-tune the end product. Just as the real-life NFL Draft showed us a couple weeks back, drafts never go quite as planned. You want an unvarnished look. What is there to learn if it goes exactly my way and I'm not challenged? You should feel the same.
So, with that in mind, I ran one mock draft and chose my least preferred spot: No. 9. Why is the No. 9 spot my least favorite? It has nothing to do with the player pool this year. I actually like my first pick in this mock.
When you're at 10 to 12, you can influence (or it feels like you can influence) position runs. You can better decipher what the opps might do, that's what the kids call "opponents" these days, based on their roster construction. At No. 9, there are six selections between your picks, so it's less likely your next player will come back around.
I try to be agnostic about draft spot preference. There are simply too many microdecisions over the course of an NFL season to concern yourself with a single action. Make the most informed decisions and let the game come to you.
Let's break it down.
^ = My picks.
* = Sleepers I like this year or nice value selections.
Round 1
1.1 Josh Allen (BUF)
1.2 Jalen Hurts (PHI)
1.3 Lamar Jackson (BAL)
1.4 Patrick Mahomes II (KC)
1.5 C.J. Stroud (HOU)
1.6 Christian McCaffrey (SF)
1.7 Dak Prescott (DAL)
1.8 Jordan Love (GB)
^1.9 Anthony Richardson (IND)
1.10 Joe Burrow (CIN)
1.11 CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
1.12 Tyreek Hill (MIA)
Based on your first pick, you tailor every team to what comes to you. You will leave disappointed if you enter a draft with certain players in mind. Last year, I didn't like Richardson. He was a raw prospect last year and we'll see where he is now. He will still need tons of reps, and of these first-round picks, he has the most to prove. However, he has an extremely high ceiling and raw players with high ceilings are rare in Round 1 of a fantasy draft.
I'm trying to convey that if you draft Richardson in Round 1 of a superflex, you must play it safer the rest of the way. I don't know if I did enough of that, but this is the theme of the mock.
Round 2
2.1 Kyler Murray (ARI)
2.2 Justin Jefferson (MIN)
2.3 Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)
^2.4 Breece Hall (NYJ)
2.5 Brock Purdy (SF)
2.6 Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
2.7 Bijan Robinson (ATL)*
2.8 Caleb Williams (CHI)
2.9 Justin Herbert (LAC)
2.1 Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
2.11 Jonathan Taylor (IND)
2.12 Jared Goff (DET)
For example, Caleb Williams was on the board at 2.4, and it would have been extremely risky to pair him with Richardson. Sure, you'd love that much big-time potential, but this draft is 17 rounds. Pace yourself. Space out the risk. Or, if you go risk-risk in consecutive rounds, you essentially need to play it safe for the rest of the draft.
How, then, do I assess risk? Well, the goal of the game is to have good players at every position. What is good? Well, if you draft the same position early or often or stack a position, you end up having too much talent at one position at the expense of another. I want to avoid two quarterbacks in the first two rounds, so that eliminates Purdy, Williams or Herbert.
I prefer to draft a running back or wide receiver here, giving me options like Hall, St. Brown, Robinson, etc. I prefer Hall, if ever so slightly, over Robinson and St. Brown. I'd have taken either over Hall if Jefferson or Chase were available here. That's the way it goes.
Round 3
3.1 Puka Nacua (LAR)
3.2 Garrett Wilson (NYJ)*
3.3 Isiah Pacheco (KC)
3.4 Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
3.5 A.J. Brown (PHI)
3.6 Saquon Barkley (PHI)
3.7 Kirk Cousins (ATL)
3.8 Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)*
^3.9 Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
3.10 Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)
3.11 Kyren Williams (LAR)
3.12 Sam LaPorta (DET)
Again keeping with the theme of diffusing the talent as evenly as possible through your roster, I go wide receiver here. Adams, Olave, London and Samuel are on the board, yet I go with Aiyuk. Not to imply he is ranked after them, but I don't mind any receiver in this tier.
I would love to draft a quarterback in Round 3 of a superflex but the player pool isn't great for that this year. I could have gone even more robust at running back here; imagine Hall, Williams and Henry.
Sometimes, I like the appeal of putting a position to bed early in a draft, and that's what I did here. It allows you to overdraft another position, which is my approach to wide receivers in recent years. So, by taking three RBs in the first five rounds, I only roster four running backs total and take six or seven receivers.
Round 4
4.1 Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
4.2 Davante Adams (LV)
4.3 Chris Olave (NO)
^4.4 Derrick Henry (BAL)*
4.5 Drake London (ATL)
4.6 Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF)
4.7 Jayden Daniels (WAS)
4.8 Josh Jacobs (GB)
4.9 Mike Evans (TB)
4.10 Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)
4.11 De'Von Achane (MIA)
4.12 D.J. Moore (CHI)
These mocks are putting too much stock into LaPorta at the expense of Kelce. More off-the-wall thinking… Drafts are basically two decisions: when to draft a quarterback and a tight end. You load up on backs and receivers as best you can, and the real decision is when to pivot to quarterback or tight end.
It seems unrealistic that LaPorta will go nearly two rounds before Kelce. There's just no way.
Henry being available here is just silly, if not unrealistic. If the Ravens don't give this man 300 carries, we live in a simulation intended to dismantle our minds and the very fabric of logic--no hyperbole. I'm saying this with a straight face. I mean it.
Round 5
5.1 Rachaad White (TB)
5.2 Stefon Diggs (HOU)
5.3 Nico Collins (HOU)
5.4 Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
5.5 Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
5.6 DeVonta Smith (PHI)
5.7 Joe Mixon (HOU)
5.8 Malik Nabers (NYG)*
^5.9 Travis Kelce (KC)
5.10 Matthew Stafford (LAR)
5.11 Austin Ekeler (WAS)
5.12 James Cook (BUF)
As I alluded, Kelce is not suddenly chopped liver cause LaPorta finished slightly ahead of Kelce. On a per-game basis, they were basically even. What is concerning is that Kelce did have a few games where he underperformed significantly. He especially disappeared in the fantasy postseason, where in Weeks 15 to 17, he scored 5.3, 6.9 and 3.1 points in half-PPR. Ouch. That can't happen again.
I'm not too fond of this range of running backs, and the receivers feel much safer. Collins, Waddle, Smith and Nabers are all studs while White, Walker, Mixon and Ekeler worry me.
Round 6
6.1 Amari Cooper (CLE)
6.2 Aaron Jones (MIN)
6.3 Keenan Allen (CHI)
^6.4 Cooper Kupp (LAR)
6.5 DK Metcalf (SEA)
6.6 Trey McBride (ARI)
6.7 Tee Higgins (CIN)
6.8 D'Andre Swift (CHI)
6.9 Tank Dell (HOU)
6.10 Kyle Pitts (ATL)*
6.11 Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)
6.12 Rashee Rice (KC)
This is where drafts can start to get away from you, and poor roster construction decisions put you in bad spots early on. For example, like taking Kelce in Round 5, I passed on those receivers I liked.
In most drafts, I punt the tight end position in most years and hope to hit a sleeper late. I still endorse that strategy. Given that it's unlikely Kelce falls in your lap, you want to wait for the tight end to bring more value. Let everyone else reach for a tight end.
This round has great value vets like Kupp, Cooper, Metcalf, Allen, Higgins and Rodgers. McBride, Dell and Rice have young upside. I won't spoil the late-round TE I have in mind, but I'd much rather wait a long while and draft him.
Landing Kupp here is crazy. This reminds me of the year people were taking Robert Woods over Kupp in 2019 (this did happen). Woods' ADP was 40 overall, and Kupp was around Pick No. 50. I can appreciate Puka Nacua, but this will be a talking point by Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season.
Round 7
7.1 Mark Andrews (BAL)*
7.2 Christian Kirk (JAC)
7.3 George Pickens (PIT)*
7.4 Alvin Kamara (NO)
7.5 Zay Flowers (BAL)
7.6 Deshaun Watson (CLE)
7.7 Zamir White (LV)
7.8 Najee Harris (PIT)
^7.9 David Montgomery (DET)
7.10 Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
7.11 Baker Mayfield (TB)
7.12 Devin Singletary (NYG)
Montgomery looked like a different player behind a real offensive line, which shows how much the supporting cast can affect a running back. He may not have the physical gifts to match his teammate Gibbs, but Montgomery is used well and effectively with the Lions.
This is another spot where I would be OK with drafting a quarterback, but the player values don't match what I'm looking for (and it's causing problems).
Round 8
8.1 Raheem Mostert (MIA)
8.2 Geno Smith (SEA)
8.3 James Conner (ARI)
^8.4 Nick Chubb (CLE)
8.5 Tony Pollard (TEN)
8.6 Calvin Ridley (TEN)
8.7 Dalton Kincaid (BUF)*
8.8 Javonte Williams (DEN)
8.9 Jayden Reed (GB)
8.10 Tyjae Spears (TEN)
8.11 Diontae Johnson (CAR)
8.12 Zack Moss (CIN)
Again, I'd love to snag a quarterback here, but Chubb fell to me when I was previously coin-flipping between him and Montgomery. Chubb probably won't last this long, and he shouldn't anyway, but there's some exciting talent here in names in new places like Pollard, Johnson and Moss.
I really like Kincaid here if you need a tight end. We're getting into the depth rounds, and these are the picks that you'll look back on in December. It's easy to say, "Oh, I should have taken Player X."
This is where you need to be very sensitive to situations and opportunities. For example, who in this group of playmakers is getting the most touches or targets? For my money, it's Chubb. That's why I like the pick.
Round 9
9.1 Jonathon Brooks (CAR)
9.2 Terry McLaurin (WAS)
9.3 Ladd McConkey (LAC)
9.4 Rome Odunze (CHI)*
9.5 Jordan Addison (MIN)
9.6 Marquise Brown (KC)
9.7 Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)
9.8 Jaylen Warren (PIT)
^9.9 Xavier Worthy (KC)
9.10 Trey Benson (ARI)
9.11 Chris Godwin (TB)
9.12 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
Sometimes you have to embrace the unknown and that's what this pick is. Worthy is the third Chiefs receiver to come off the board after Rice and Brown. This is an example of controlled risk. It's the Chiefs offense, which was uncharacteristically down in 2023. There are steady vets in this round, such as McLaurin and Godwin. This is typically where you're either drafting handcuffs for your best players or looking to pluck diamonds.
I prefer Odunze over Worthy, but it didn't break that way. I prefer Benson over Brooks, but I don't need a running back here.
You do want one or two make-or-break sleeper choices in this range. Look for security in the earlier rounds, like my choices of Montgomery, Kupp and Henry.
Round 10
10.1 Jerome Ford (CLE)
10.2 DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)
10.3 Christian Watson (GB)
^10.4 Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC)*
10.5 Will Levis (TEN)
10.6 Gus Edwards (LAC)
10.7 Courtland Sutton (DEN)
10.8 Jameson Williams (DET)
10.9 Chase Brown (CIN)
10.10 Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
10.11 George Kittle (SF)
10.12 Blake Corum (LAR)*
I'm shooting another shot at receiver and Thomas is in a great spot. There's enough upside to match the risk, and I would rather play the waiver wire to add a receiver if Thomas or Worthy doesn't pan out than settle for the so-so contributions from a guy like Sutton or Hopkins in this range.
Round 11
11.1 Curtis Samuel (BUF)
11.2 Zach Charbonnet (SEA)*
11.3 Antonio Gibson (NE)
11.4 Romeo Doubs (GB)
11.5 Tyler Lockett (SEA)
11.6 Justin Fields (PIT)
11.7 Khalil Shakir (BUF)
11.8 Mike Williams (NYJ)*
^11.9 Keon Coleman (BUF)*
11.10 Jaylen Wright (MIA)
11.11 Ty Chandler (MIN)
11.12 Jerry Jeudy (CLE)
Again?! The mock draft gods have been too kind to me. I honestly eyed Coleman when I took Worthy two rounds ago and again when I selected BTJ. I'm going to go buy a lotto ticket.
Round 12
12.1 Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
12.2 David Njoku (CLE)
12.3 Ricky Pearsall (SF)
^12.4 Josh Downs (IND)
12.5 Evan Engram (JAC)
12.6 Rico Dowdle (DAL)*
12.7 Joshua Palmer (LAC)
12.8 Jakobi Meyers (LV)
12.9 Gabe Davis (JAC)
12.10 Khalil Herbert (CHI)
12.11 Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
12.12 Kendre Miller (NO)
If Pearsall fell to me, I'd have done it. You can't win 'em all, and I'd say he's the biggest sleeper of the first-round receivers. But he has two guys ahead of him on the depth chart who will almost certainly outplay him this year. What happened to mitigating risk? Downs hasn't done much, and all these rookie receivers could all bust.
Well frankly, if you draft four top rookie receivers and they all bust, that's just terrible luck. But by over-drafting running backs early, I enjoy the flexibility to place the aforementioned lottery of rookie wideouts. One of them has to hit, and I like each of these guys, including Pearsall, even if he's a much better dynasty asset than a Year 1 redraft option.
Round 13
13.1 Rashid Shaheed (NO)
13.2 J.K. Dobbins (LAC)
13.3 Brandin Cooks (DAL)
13.4 Brock Bowers (LV)*
13.5 Jahan Dotson (WAS)
13.6 Roschon Johnson (CHI)
13.7 Adonai Mitchell (IND)
13.8 MarShawn Lloyd (GB)
^13.9 Drake Maye (NE)*
13.10 T.J. Hockenson (MIN)*
13.11 J.J. McCarthy (MIN)
13.12 Derek Carr (NO)
I wrote about Maye and Coleman in my way too early fantasy football sleepers article. Here's the full quote:
I'm shooting my shot. You could argue a veteran like Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers. Maybe you believe Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield will continue to grow more comfortable with their offenses.
What we all want is the moonshot. Maye is sitting around QB30 in most fantasy football rankings. That's fair. Looking at the Pats' depth chart does little to drum up confidence. I like Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, the two rookie receivers added in the second and fourth rounds.
My bet has more to do with the chatter leading up to the draft. Where people enjoyed hanging out with Maye. Where stories about him sharing his NIL opportunities with his teammates. Instead of hitting the transfer portal for even more NIL money, he stayed loyal to North Carolina.
Watching his tape, the big thing that jumped out to me was Maye's controlled aggression. Yes, he often looks for the big play, but I also saw a guy having fun. With coaching and polish, Maye will take big steps this summer and be the blossoming starter over Jacoby Brissett in Week 1. I don't expect big numbers immediately, but by the second half of the season, he will be the clear standout among this loaded 2024 class of quarterbacks.
And Coleman:
Josh Allen's top target in 2024 might not be Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir. It won't be Dalton Kincaid of Dalton Knox. My early bet is on former Florida State rookie Keon Coleman. Many pundits have cooled on him because he ran slow at the combine (4.61 40), but that was never his game.
Part of being an NFL receiver is body control, jump balls and boxing out in traffic. When I watch Coleman's tape, I see a big, physical receiver with incredible hands, focus, length and a knack for making plays. We all are drawn to the Xavier Worthy types, the Tyreeks, the speed demons. Some guys are built more like Marques Colston.
You also can't deny his YAC potential. Once he gets the ball, he's not stepping out of bounds. He's a physical power forward looking to drop his shoulder into somebody's sternum. Right now, Coleman is being drafted as the WR53. I am sure that will climb closer to the low 40s by the time draft season begins in late summer.
Round 14
14.1 Xavier Legette (CAR)
14.2 Ravens DST (BAL)
14.3 Dallas Goedert (PHI)
^14.4 Quentin Johnston (LAC)*
14.5 Michael Wilson (ARI)*
14.6 Bo Nix (DEN)
14.7 Adam Thielen (CAR)
14.8 Jake Ferguson (DAL)
14.9 Braelon Allen (NYJ)
14.10 AJ Dillon (GB)
14.11 Russell Wilson (PIT)*
14.12 Bryce Young (CAR)
Round 15
15.1 Keaton Mitchell (BAL)
15.2 Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)
15.3 Daniel Jones (NYG)
15.4 Elijah Mitchell (SF)
15.5 Ray Davis (BUF)
15.6 Dameon Pierce (HOU)
15.7 Miles Sanders (CAR)
15.8 D'Onta Foreman (CLE)
^15.9 Troy Franklin (DEN)*
15.10 Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
15.11 Justice Hill (BAL)
15.12 Alexander Mattison (LV)
To close it up, you'll notice I only took four running backs and two quarterbacks. That's not ideal, and in a superflex, I understand the compulsion to want that third quarterback. But to be honest, most of the quarterbacks in the 15 to 25 range don't appeal to me. That doesn't mean they'll all bust, but I'd rather take my chances. We've seen guys come from absolutely nowhere.
I'm not talking about Purdy, but I mean more like Jake Browning or Tommy Devito. Teams quit on their quarterbacks, which is happening more every year.
Teams want to kick the tires on these guys, but defenses have no tape. I like those odds for a game or two before defenses figure them out. I'll take my chances there if I really need to start somebody else. I'll use that extra roster spot on a deep sleeper like Franklin or hope somebody like Johnston falls in my lap.
I also drafted a kicker and team defense, which are below. I don't play in leagues with kickers or team defenses (I'm an IDP lifer). Thanks for reading.
Round 16
16.1 49ers DST (SF)
16.2 Bucky Irving (TB)
16.3 Browns DST (CLE)
^16.4 Cowboys DST (DAL)
16.5 Jets DST (NYJ)
16.6 Chiefs DST (KC)
16.7 Steelers DST (PIT)
16.8 Justin Tucker (BAL)
16.9 Bills DST (BUF)
16.10 Brandon Aubrey (DAL)
16.11 Jake Moody (SF)
16.12 Dolphins DST (MIA)
Round 17
17.1 Harrison Butker (KC)
17.2 Bears DST (CHI)
17.3 Eagles DST (PHI)
17.4 Jason Sanders (MIA)
17.5 Saints DST (NO)
17.6 Tyler Bass (BUF)
17.7 Jake Elliott (PHI)
17.8 Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU)
^17.9 Younghoe Koo (ATL)
17.10 Dustin Hopkins (CLE)
17.11 Cameron Dicker (LAC)
17.12 Evan McPherson (CIN)
Final Roster
QB: Anthony Richardson, Drake Maye
RB: Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Nick Chubb
WR: Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp, Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman, Troy Franklin, Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston
TE: Travis Kelce
DST: Dallas Cowboys
K: Younghoe Koo
