Fantasy Football Winners and Losers of the 2024 NFL Draft: Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes, Najee Harris and More
A look at some of the individuals who benefitted from their team's draft and a few who were left wanting.
Real football and fantasy football are different. That’s hard to remember sometimes given how popular fantasy football is and how intertwined it is with the game. When a team makes a move that improves fantasy status, it doesn’t always affect their actual performance as much; Odell Beckham joining the Ravens last year is a good example.
I named winners and losers for both Day 1 and Day 2 before focusing on all seven rounds in naming teams that “won” or “lost” the draft. Of course, much of this is opinion, but some teams seem to have clearly made moves to increase or decrease their chances of winning.
Here, we are talking about the fantasy winners and losers of the draft. I will often focus away from real-life implications, though they will be intrinsically tied in at times.
Kirk Cousins is a good example: It’s fair to call him a “loser” in terms of not getting increased odds at the Super Bowl, but the drafting of Michael Penix Jr. didn’t hurt Cousins’ fantasy value, because the draft pick was more likely to go toward the defense if it weren’t a quarterback.
This is not a complete list, but it represents some of the players who stand out and guys I will be hyping up or talking down come fantasy preseason time.
Winner: Jayden Daniels
Last year, I saw Anthony Richardson as a no-doubt top-10 fantasy quarterback. He was raw and needed to improve his passing, evaluators thought, but he was also one of the best athletes in the league, particularly at quarterback.
Running the football was his biggest strength, and quarterbacks who regularly produce on the ground often have higher floors and ceilings in fantasy. Sure enough, Richardson was a top-four fantasy QB in the only two full games he played (Weeks 1 and 4).
Daniels is entering the league with a similar profile in that he will likely be scrambling and carrying the ball on designed runs on a weekly basis. Regardless of how quickly he develops as a passer, Daniels will have fantasy value from Week 1.
It helps that he has a pair of good running backs (Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler) and wide receivers (Terry McLaurin and Josh Dotson) waiting for him. Washington also signed two new starters on the interior offensive line in free agency and Zach Ertz as presumably their top tight end.
Caleb Williams and Drake Maye could also be listed here for the fact that their team worked to set them up to succeed. I have to imagine teams saw what happened to Bryce Young in Carolina last year and learned that young passers need at least adequate pieces around them to have a chance to succeed.
If Bo Nix starts in Denver, he will find the opposite, as he joins a franchise hurting for talent at nearly every position and likely to be among the worst this year. That’s the opposite of what the Bears, Commanders and Patriots did for their rookies.
Winners: Patrick Mahomes and Xavier Worthy
It’s too easy to simply say that Worthy will be the missing piece that unlocks an unstoppable Chiefs offense. After all, they just won the Super Bowl with some of the worst receiver play in the league (though Travis Kelce makes up for a lot).
Nothing is ever that simple, though, and Worthy will surely have rookie struggles as he adapts to the league. Even considering that fact, the best quarterback in the league just got the fastest receiver in the draft. That’s a scary thought for opposing defenses.
Worthy might be drafted among the top 20 fantasy wide receivers. Rashee Rice was among the top 30 WRs in both standard and PPR scoring in 2023, and some fans will expect at least that level of performance.
Rice’s status could also affect Worthy’s stock. If Rice were to be suspended for any significant amount of time amid an ongoing investigation, Worthy might be the team’s WR1 while Rice is out. They also signed Marquise Brown in free agency, which should help, but the hope for Worthy is that he reaches a higher level than Brown (eventually).
It’s not fair to throw all these expectations on a rookie, but that’s how things work in today's NFL. A more realistic view is expecting something less than Rice’s 938 yards and seven touchdowns from 2023, but I have a feeling we are going to be talking about Worthy as a fantasy breakout star before the season, raising his draft stock.
Loser: Josh Allen
The Bills drafted a receiver 33rd overall (Florida State’s Keon Coleman) after trading down twice. That’s one move toward rebuilding the pass-catching core, but Buffalo has a noticeably worse group of wide receivers than they did last year.
Talent levels can fluctuate at positions, but the Bills have regularly come up short in the playoffs and have now made life harder on their quarterback. Gabe Davis leaving for the Jaguars was a fixable problem; the drafting of Coleman essentially would have filled the gap.
The trade of Stefon Diggs, though, created a hole at the top of the depth chart that it’s unfair to expect Coleman to approximate. If the team would have made a costly trade up the board for a prospect in the top 10, then we would be talking about Allen as a winner. As is, though, he ends up on the negative side.
This would change if Buffalo were able to pull off a big move for someone like Brandon Aiyuk. Allen will be a top fantasy option because of his running. In terms of being able to throw the ball up to reliable players, though, Allen’s path to fantasy greatness has gotten tougher.
Loser: Miles Sanders
I’ll speak more to the overall state of the running back position here, though it doesn’t need to be rehashed in full. Veteran backs cost more than those on rookie contracts while generally not offering much more value. Some guys make a true difference, but most running backs are the same, with their surroundings making more of a difference.
Sanders had a breakout year as the lead back for the Eagles in 2022, gaining 1,269 rushing yards and scoring 11 touchdowns (his previous highs were 867 and six). Upon signing a big contract with Carolina, I expected his production to fall, but I figured he would be a decent fantasy option because he’d be carrying the load for a team with a rookie quarterback.
Well, while appearing in 16 games, he accumulated only 432 rushing yards and one touchdown. The worst part? After having a low of 4.6 yards per carry over any season with Philly (that was in his rookie year of 2019), Sanders put out a putrid 3.3 yards per carry last year.
Carolina responded by drafting the first running back off the board, Jonathon Brooks of Texas, at No. 46. Brooks is coming off a torn ACL and might be eased in, but the team undoubtedly sees him as their starting running back in 2024.
It would cost more to cut Sanders than keep him, so he’ll probably be around this season. He will have to pull a 180 from last year to stay on the roster any further, an unlikely outcome given that Sanders will likely be the second or third back on the depth chart.
He got his money, so Sanders is a winner in that respect, but he has lost almost all his fantasy value in the span of one season. Watch this as a theme in the coming years as teams continue to de-value the running back position and look for younger players.
Winners: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren
After two years of playing behind a middling offensive line and with an ineffective Kenny Pickett (or Mitchell Trubisky) at quarterback, Harris and Warren got huge upgrades in both facets this offseason.
No matter if Russell Wilson or Justin Fields wins the starting job, they will be an upgrade on Pickett, who was regularly below average. Their throwing ability will back defenders up, and if Fields wins the job, his dynamic rushing will also open lanes for the running back duo.
Maybe more importantly, Pittsburgh hammered the offensive line early in the draft, adding two new starters in the top 51 picks. Troy Fautanu played left tackle at Washington, but many see his best pro position at guard. While he may get a chance to stick at tackle, Fautanu could be a huge upgrade no matter where he ends up.
West Virginia’s Zach Frazier was seen with an outside chance of ending up in the first round, but he suffered a broken leg last year that ended his season early, partly dropping his draft stock (along with his position). Frazier should be the starting center immediately, offering a ready-made replacement for the released Mason Cole.
I’ve never been a fan of Harris, who has a career average of 3.9 yards per carry, but this will be his chance to show he deserves a new contract as he nears the end of his rookie deal. Warren has been much better on a per-play basis, but he runs the ball less than half as much as Harris.
The 2024 season will help Pittsburgh see which of their backs are ready to break out with improved surroundings.
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