Five-Star QB Recruits in the NFL Draft: What Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills Can Tell Us About 2024

A look at quarterbacks who entered college as five-star recruits but failed to reach the NFL with the same expectations.

When South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler gets drafted (likely in the third round, according to many experts), he will join a list of five-star college recruits who were not selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

With these guys, it’s tempting to say the talent was there, but they were used wrong in college or not coached the right way, meaning they can still attain NFL success. It makes sense in some respects, as there was a reason these guys stood out, but they also have failed to live up to expectations against better competition.

I wanted to go through five-star recruit quarterbacks in past years and see how many, if any, entered the NFL unheralded but went on to have success despite underwhelming in college. I went through the rankings at Rivals.com through the high school class of 2006 to identify five-star recruits who were not first-round picks to see how successful they were as pros.

2006

Mitch Mustain, Arkansas

Mustain started eight games at Arkansas his freshman season in a run-oriented offense before being replaced and eventually transferring to USC, where he was a backup for four years.  Mustain threw only 221 pass attempts in his college career.

2007

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

Ryan Mallett, Michigan

Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech

Clausen was the 48th overall pick in 2010, while Mallett (74th overall) and Taylor (180th overall) entered the league in 2011. Taylor has built a career as a borderline starter/backup, filling in for teams and working as a high-level QB2.

The other two didn’t get much NFL playing time. Clausen was unseated by Cam Newton when the latter was drafted in 2011, and Clausen never found a real chance at an extended job. Mallett never appeared in more than eight games in a season and played his last game in 2017.

2008

Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State

Dayne Crist, Notre Dame

Crist had an injury but also played ineffectively when on the field in college. He went undrafted and spent time in the preseason with Kansas City and Baltimore, but he never made a roster.

Pryor’s case is out of the ordinary: He was given a suspension at the end of his college career, so instead of returning to Ohio State, he entered the Supplemental Draft and was taken by the Raiders with a third-round pick (which cost them their third rounder in the next draft). He bounced around the league, and Pryor’s best season came as a wide receiver with the Browns.

2009

Matt Barkley, USC

Garrett Gilbert, Texas

Barkley was seen as a possible first-round pick during his college career, but a shoulder injury his senior season helped his stock drop all the way to the fourth round. He played seven games for the Bears in 2016 and threw for 1,600 yards, but he otherwise never hit 400 yards in a season.

Gilbert had an underwhelming career at Texas and SMU before being taken in the sixth round in 2014. He bounced around as a practice squad player mostly and got a run in the AAF before the league ceased operations in 2019.

2010, 2011

None

2012

Gunner Kiel, Notre Dame

Kiel changed his commitment twice before even entering college, then he transferred from Notre Dame to Cincinnati after his freshman year. All the uncertainty didn’t set him up for success, and he finished his career as a college backup.

2013

Max Browne, USC

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State

Hackenberg had a successful college career and was drafted 51st overall by the Jets in 2016. Despite his high draft status, he never appeared in an NFL game and last played in the AAF in 2019.

Browne was beaten out for the starting job at USC by Cody Kessler, then Sam Darnold, and his last season at Pitt ended early with a shoulder injury. He never signed with an NFL team after going undrafted.

2014

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M

Allen had an OK college career but was a backup at the University of Houston by the end of 2017 and decided to enter the 2018 Draft despite having a year of college eligibility remaining. He went undrafted, but Allen has carved out a role for himself as a backup. He is currently part of the Steelers’ roster.

2015

None

2016

Shea Patterson, Mississippi

Jacob Eason, Georgia

Patterson transferred to Michigan in 2018 and had two good years for the Wolverines. He went undrafted and has spent most of the time since playing in the Canadian Football League.

Eason lost the starting job at Georgia and transferred to Washington, entering the draft after a good junior year. He was selected in the fourth round by the Colts in 2020 and has appeared in just two NFL games (one each for Indianapolis and Carolina).

2017

Davis Mills, Stanford

Hunter Johnson, Clemson

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Mills is the guy who made me think about this topic originally. He and Mond entered college together as five-star recruits before both being drafted in the third round in 2021 with the 66th and 67th picks. Though Mond was drafted first, he has only appeared in one game in his career, while Mills started a large portion of both 2021 and 2022; he is now the backup to C.J. Stroud.

Fromm had a high-profile college career at Georgia, playing in three SEC Championship Games and one College Football Championship game. He left for the draft after his third year of college, being drafted in the fifth round by the Bills and only appearing in three games so far in his career.

Johnson flamed out in college and went undrafted in 2023, failing to catch on with a team.

2018

J.T. Daniels, USC

Daniels had a roller coaster career, starting during his freshman year at USC before suffering a major injury and eventually transferring twice. In December, he medically retired from football due to concussions.

2019

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma

Bo Nix, Auburn

Comparing Rattler and Mills was the initial idea here, but I was surprised to see that Nix might fall into the same category, which led to expanding the scope. Both guys are likely to be chosen on Day 2, though Nix could go in the first round.

 

Can Nix and/or Rattler Succeed?

They have a chance, of course, but history is not on their side. There are 19 quarterbacks listed between the classes of 2006 and 2018 and not even one became a good starter. Taylor probably has had the best pro career.

Taylor worked as the primary starter for the Bills for three years from 2015 to 2017, showing a good floor but not the ceiling of a guy like Buffalo’s current starter, Josh Allen. Taylor is a great backup quarterback.

Over almost 20 years, not one five-star recruit who wasn’t drafted in the first round regained their star form once reaching the pro level. That means Rattler and Nix are most likely to top out as backups and shouldn’t elicit hopes of stardom.

Why is this the Case?

Several years back when a Day 3 prospect was being discussed, I heard an analyst say something to the effect of, “If a guy looks the part and can also play, he’ll be drafted in the first round.” NFL teams are often looking for an archetype, and they won’t pass on one of those guys early in the draft if he shows the ability to play.

That means the guys who look like quarterbacks but struggle to excel in college usually don’t have what it takes to make it as a professional starter. Most of these guys became backups in the league.

And there’s nothing wrong with that! Only 32 guys get to go out as a team’s Week 1 QB, so the competition is as fierce as it is at any position in any sport. Even those who only become backups have gotten further than 99% of those who tried.

When it comes to excelling in the league, though, the odds are firmly against Nix and Rattler becoming high-level passers. It only takes one player to break the trend, but I’m not counting on either developing into a franchise quarterback.

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