Odell Beckham Jr. and Chase Claypool Sign with New Teams: Will They Make a Fantasy Impact?
A look at the new situations for two veteran receivers and whether they are set up for success from a fantasy football prospective.
On Friday, veteran receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Chase Claypool signed with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, respectively. Each player has strong seasons in his past, but neither has been a true difference maker for several years.
These are two contending teams looking to solidify their pass-catching corps; Beckham and Claypool are role players, not impact players. Can they excel in those roles in their new homes, though?
Every move creates new opportunities, both in real and fantasy football. Let’s take a look at the situation each receiver is stepping into and what it means for fantasy owners heading into the 2024 season.
Odell Beckham Jr. to Miami Dolphins
Contract - $3 million (with incentives up to $8.25 million)
Beckham had 74 catches for 1,035 yards in 2019; he hasn’t hit 50 or 600 in any season since, including missing all of 2022 and half of 2020. It’s wrong to call him a low-level player, but Beckham’s injuries and inconsistent performance have made him mostly an afterthought.
He scored five touchdowns in 2021 and three last season, so Beckham has shown some flashes of his early-career, when he scored at least 10 times in each of his first three seasons. To count on him for production week-to-week would be setting up for failure, though.
The Dolphins have been one of the most explosive offenses of the past few years, a threat to score on any given play. Miami was second in passing yards in 2023 (just two yards behind Minnesota), tied for fourth in touchdowns, and in the top eight in both 20- and 40-yard completions. There were in the top five in each of those categories in 2022.
Beckham is walking into a good situation as far as potential production is concerned, but he will also be fighting for targets with two established receivers. Tyreek Hill might be the best receiver in the league; he is the most explosive offensive skill player in football. Jaylen Waddle has had over 70 receptions and 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons, scoring 18 touchdowns in that time.
There isn’t much else in the receiver room, meaning Beckham could be third in line in the passing game. The team signed Jonnu Smith, but they haven’t thrown to their tight ends under Mike McDaniel, even with Mike Gesicki coming off back-to-back 700-yard seasons.
The running backs will be a major part of the passing game. According to FantasyPros, Miami backs had the fifth-most targets of any team in 2023. The running game will also be expected to excel.
Last year’s third and fourth receivers (Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Braxton Berrios) received 38 and 33 targets, while Hill had 171 and Waddle 104 in 14 games. Those numbers were essentially the same in 2022, though Trent Sherfield did get 51 targets while playing every game.
Beckham was the second-most targeted receiver for the Ravens last year, seeing 64 passes his way while Zay Flowers led the team with 108. Miami threw the ball more than Baltimore: Dolphin pass catchers had 15% more targets.
Even with the increase in passing volume, I see Beckham getting less opportunities than he did last year and failing to top 500 yards. Of course, injuries would change things, but that’s the case with every team. Beckham doesn’t seem to have much fantasy value outside of deep leagues and will be touchdown dependent, maybe flirting with 50 targets.
Chase Claypool to the Buffalo Bills
As of this writing, the financial side of the deal isn’t available, but I can’t imagine Claypool getting more than the $3 million base value of Beckham’s contract. After catching about 60 passes for just under 900 yards in each of his first two seasons, Claypool has combined for 54 receptions and 528 yards the last two years, playing for three teams during that time.
Beckham is the better player, but Claypool might have the higher ceiling given the circumstances. Buffalo re-made their receiver room during the offseason, losing Gabe Davis in free agency then trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans. The only major move to replace those guys was the drafting of Florida State’s Keon Coleman 33rd overall.
Coleman was highly regarded by scouts, but he fills just one slot, and expecting a second-round rookie to excel in Year 1 is a risky proposition. Davis and Diggs combined for more than 240 targets each of the last two seasons. Khalil Shakir and/or Dalton Kincaid might be ready to accept a larger role, but there is room for another guy to step up in Buffalo.
Claypool could be that player, though I’m not counting on it. He has a higher ceiling, but he also has a lower floor than Beckham due to his anonymous past two seasons. There is talent, as 1,700 yards between 2020-21 prove, but it will take either a new role or more trust from his coaches and quarterback than Claypool has had the last few years.
Fantasy Advice
I’m done looking at Beckham as a potential fantasy option other than as a fill-in on the odd week. Miami’s offense might reinvigorate him, but he’s likely to be a complementary piece used in the redzone rather than putting up consistent production.
Claypool is two years removed from being an impact player, but his situation gives him the chance to settle into a real role in a good offense with targets to fill. I will likely be looking at Claypool as a possible upside pick late in fantasy drafts.
I would rather take Claypool late than Beckham because of the increased opportunity, but they are fairly close as deep/streaming options. The matchups will dictate their fantasy value much more than their own play.
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