Fantasy Baseball Buy Low Trade Candidates: Randy Arozarena, Lane Thomas, Luis Castillo and More

Identifying some buy low fantasy baseball players in the fifth week of the season.

We’re in the fifth week of the fantasy baseball season and about to hit the one-month mark of the MLB regular season.

Some players are off to hot starts, while others have really struggled so far. There’s still a lot of season left, but based on how a player has performed, fantasy owners might be itching to make some trades.

This week, I wanted to identify some “buy low” and “sell high” candidates. We’ll start with the buy-low players here - check back later this week for the sell high story.

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Hitters to Buy Low

Nolan Jones Fantasy Outlook

Jones has one of the worst batting averages in the league so far. He held a .143 mark through 23 games and 84 at-bats. 

I had really high hopes for Jones this season after he hit .297 across 106 games a season ago. He popped 20 homers, drove in 62 runs, scored 60 runs and stole 20 bases last season, so projecting those numbers out over a whole season had me thinking Jones was a big-time draft steal.

Along with his .143 average this season, Jones has a .217 on-base percentage. He’s only had 12 hits this season, with four doubles and one triple and homer. Jones has six RBIs, nine runs scored and two stolen bases.

Things haven’t been good for Jones so far, but I also don’t think his struggles will continue all season. Even if he can’t match last year’s numbers, he can be a top fantasy backup and a guy you can start when he’s going good at the plate. 

His own percentage is down to 84%, which is pretty low considering he was drafted around pick 110. The fantasy owners still rostering him might be willing to cut bait for a lot cheaper than pick 110 too, so I’d definitely give it a shot.

Randy Arozarena Fantasy Outlook

Arozarena was drafted around pick 70 this season and is owned in 96% of leagues right now. 

Across 23 games, Arozarena is hitting just .149, with a .221 OBP. He’s homered twice and doubled once among his 13 total hits. So far, Arozarena has driven in six runs, scored 10 times and stolen four bases.

He’s a career .259 hitter, although his averages have dropped in three straight seasons. He’s certainly not going to hit this poorly all season. Arozarena plays nearly everyday and always hits in the top half of the order, so he offers a ton of fantasy value when he’s going good at the plate. 

Arozarena won’t be as easy to acquire as Jones, but there are probably a bunch of fantasy owners out there willing to part ways with him. See what a fantasy owner might want in return and run things through FantasySP’s Trade Analyzer, Trade Value Chart and Rest of Season Rankings and see if you can make something work.

Maikel Garcia Fantasy Outlook

Garcia was another player I viewed as a fantasy sleeper coming into the season, but he’s really struggled at the plate so far.

Across 22 games and 90 at-bats, Garcia has just 16 hits for a .178 average. He’s gotten on base at a .224 clip. Garcia has four homers, three doubles and a triple among his hits, has driven in 15 runs, scored 10 times and stolen four bases, so even with the lower average, he’s done some nice things for fantasy teams.

Still, that average is easy to dislike as a fantasy owner, and it might allow you to nab him in a trade for fairly cheap. His ADP was around pick 237, which I thought was far too low, but means it won’t take much to acquire him.

He hit .272 and had a .323 OBP last season, and I still expect him to finish around those marks this season. If he doesn’t reach those marks, he might still be as good a fantasy player because of his power and run-producing numbers. Garcia already has as many homers as a season ago, and needs 35 more RBIs to top last year’s mark.

This is more for the fantasy owners in deeper leagues, as he’s owned in 59% of leagues. At some point, he’s going to get going at the plate, and because he’s batting leadoff, he’s got some good fantasy value. You could swap him for a struggling player that’s on your roster right now, maybe at a position of strength. Whatever deal you come up with, I expect Garcia to be a much better fantasy asset by the end of the season, so act now while his value is pretty low.

Lane Thomas Fantasy Outlook

I had extremely high hopes for Thomas this season, but he’s really struggled as a hitter.

Thomas has 15 total hits in 84 at-bats for a .179 average. He’s got a .247 on-base percentage and has stolen 10 bases, so his fantasy value could skyrocket if he just collected a few more hits. Thomas hit .268 last season and is a career .246 hitter, so a bump in average should come at some point.

Thomas has just two extra-base hits (both homers) this season, after collecting 67 extra-base knocks last season. He’s only scored six runs, after crossing home 101 times last season. Thomas has 10 RBIs after having 86 last season.

He’s owned in about 78% of leagues now after having an ADP of around 147. There’s probably a lot more fantasy owners out there that would be willing to move Thomas for less than the true value of a player at that pick. This is another case where you could maybe swap a struggling player of your own for Thomas.

Pitchers to Buy Low

Jesus Luzardo Fantasy Outlook

Luzardo had an ADP of 65 this season and is now owned in 91% of leagues, which obviously isn’t great.

Luzardo has allowed at least two earned runs in all five of his starts this season and sits with an ugly 6.58 earned run average. He’s struck out 27 batters and walked 13 over 26 innings. Luzardo has an 0-2 record, which actually seems like a break.

Luzardo won 10 games a season ago and had a 3.58 ERA. He’s got a career 4.32 ERA and has finished with at least 20 more strikeouts than innings pitched in the past couple seasons, so the start to this season has been very underwhelming.

He shouldn’t pitch this poorly all season, although on a terrible Miami team, he also won’t be in a great spot to earn wins ever. I still think you could swing a trade for him and acquire him at a cheaper price than his actual fantasy worth. Maybe you could deal away a pitcher with a worse ADP who has gotten off to a strong start, but likely won’t continue to pitch that well.

Joe Musgrove Fantasy Outlook

Musgrove has six starts under his belt because of the Seoul Series. He’s 3-2 in his starts, but has a 5.74 ERA.

Musgrove has struck out 23 batters over 31 1/3 innings, while walking 11 and already hitting six batters. He has a career 3.78 ERA and has been at 3.18 or lower in three straight seasons (with double-digit wins in all those seasons). 

I highly doubt Musgrove pitches this poorly all season, and I’d try to acquire him while his value is lower. His ADP was 88 and his own percentage is 94 right now. Nab him now and he might be able to help carry your team to fantasy glory at the end of the season.

George Kirby and Luis Castillo Fantasy Outlook

Let’s discuss two Seattle pitchers to wrap things up. 

Castillo is 1-4 across five starts, with a 4.40 ERA (which was boosted by seven scoreless innings in his last outing). He’s struck out 36 batters over 28 2/3 innings, walking just five. Hits allowed have been his downside so far, but he may have gotten back on track after allowing just two in his last start.

Castillo had an ADP of 21 and his own percentage is 96. He was viewed as one of the top fantasy starters in the game coming into the season. He has a career 3.56 ERA, and has been at 3.34 or below the last two years. His high strikeout numbers have continued, it’s just the ERA and WHIP numbers that have lacked this season.

Kirby had ERAs of 3.39 and 3.35 in his first two seasons, so his 5.33 mark this season is definitely a shock to fantasy owners. Kirby is 2-2 across five starts, with 26 strikeouts and three walks over 25 1/3 innings.

He’s not a huge strikeout guy, but eats plenty of innings and had a solid career ERA coming into the season. He’s had three good/great starts and two bad ones, but that might also mean fantasy owners are a little more willing to cut ties with him. His ADP was 36 and his own percentage is 98.

The two Seattle pitchers won’t be easy to acquire, but their fantasy values will also probably not be any lower, so you might as well try to acquire them now.

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