How are Top-Drafted Pitchers Performing? Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and More

Taking a look at the top-10 drafted pitchers this season and seeing how their seasons are going so far.

The MLB season is now two weeks into play, but plenty of fantasy owners are already overreacting to how players are performing.

Today, I thought it’d be fun to take a look at how the top-drafted players are performing so far and determine how to proceed with those players. Stats are accurate through April 13.

Let’s look at pitchers here after looking at the hitters yesterday.

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Spencer Strider Fantasy Outlook

Strider was the clear cut No. 1 fantasy pitcher after New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole went down with an injury. Strider made just two starts before being sidelined, and now he’s out for the season.

Strider allowed seven runs on 10 hits and five walks over nine innings in his two games pitched. He struck out 12 batters, while allowing two home runs.

In redraft leagues, Strider can be dropped, which will be a devastating loss for the fantasy owners that spent an early pick on him. Unless those owners drafted really well otherwise, it’s likely going to be an uphill climb this season.

Zack Wheeler Fantasy Outlook

Wheeler has been great across three starts so far, but has an 0-2 record. All three of Wheeler’s starts have been quality ones, and he’s struck out 20 batters over 19 innings. Wheeler has allowed six runs (four earned) on 15 hits and two walks, while allowing just one home run.

Wheeler should be in the running for top fantasy arm this season, granted he can stay healthy. The wins will come if he keeps pitching this well.

Wheeler might actually be a bit more attainable than you think, mostly because the 0-2 record is going to misguide fantasy owners. See if you can acquire a top-level fantasy arm for fairly cheap. If I owned Wheeler, I’d only deal him away if I got a good haul in return, with at least one pitcher coming back.

Corbin Burnes Fantasy Outlook

Burnes has also been good across his first three starts. He has two quality starts and a 2-0 record. Burnes has struck out 20 batters over 18 2/3 innings, while allowing four runs on 12 hits and two walks. He’s allowed two home runs and sits with a strong 1.93 ERA.

I wasn’t nearly as high on Burnes as others were coming into the season, mostly because his ERA has gotten worse in four straight seasons. He posts big strikeout numbers to serve as one of the top fantasy arms, and now has a good chance to be one of the best fantasy SP this season. 

I personally would try to capitalize on Burnes’ strong start and “sell high,” trying to get a SP and then another quality player in return for him. His numbers are likely to fall at some point because he’s in a tougher league and division than he was in the past. Setting my personal view aside, I can see why some would want to keep Burnes, with him making 28 or more starts in four straight years.

Luis Castillo Fantasy Outlook

Castillo has gotten off to a very slow start with Seattle, going 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA across his first three starts. Castillo has allowed 12 runs on 25 hits and four walks across 15 2/3 innings, while striking out 18 batters along the way.

In his first 44 starts with the Mariners, Castillo lost just 11 times, while having a sub 3.50 ERA. Everyone is hoping this is just a slow start, but there’s also a possibility an injury is affecting him. Either way, you should probably at least be a little worried.

Because of the slow start, his trade value has gone down. I usually advise fantasy owners against giving up a highly-drafted player for less than an equal return this early in the season, but with Castillo, I’d definitely consider it. I’m not saying to flip Castillo for anything possible, but instead saying that you’ll likely have to accept less right now to part ways with him.

I’d personally try to wait until he puts together a strong start, at which time fantasy owners might believe he’s bouncing back and offer more compensation. He’s definitely a pitcher to monitor closely over his next couple starts.

Kevin Gausman Fantasy Outlook

Gausman was working his way back from an injury at the start of the regular season, and his numbers so far suggest that things aren’t quite right with him. Gausman is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA across three starts and just 9 1/3 innings pitched so far. He’s allowed 13 runs (12 earned) on 16 hits and two walks, while striking out 10. Gausman has surrendered three homers.

It’s hard to judge Gausman because of the injury, but fantasy owners have every reason to be worried about his fantasy outlook. They probably were happy he didn’t miss starts to begin the season, but now wished he’d taken some time to properly get ramped up, because the numbers are not great so far.

Unlike the case with Castillo, the early-season injury concern is probably going to hurt Gausman’s trade value even more than his slow start did. Unless someone is willing to pay up for the highly-drafted pitcher, he’s another player I’d try to ride things out with, either hoping he gets going, or puts together a couple good starts and then trade him at that point.

Zac Gallen Fantasy Outlook

Gallen has been strong through three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and three quality starts. He’s allowed four runs on 14 hits and five walks, while striking out 19 batters over 16 frames.

He looks to be on his way to a bit of a bounceback season (after posting a 3.47 ERA in 2023). You could try to capitalize and sell high after his strong start, but given how most of the rest of the top pitchers have performed so far, I’d do my best to hang on to Gallen.

Pablo Lopez Fantasy Outlook

Lopez hasn’t looked great yet, but he also hasn’t been too bad either. He’s got a 1-2 record and 4.86 ERA across three starts, with just one quality start. He’s allowed 10 runs (nine earned) on 16 hits and four walks, while striking out 16 over 16 2/3 innings. 

There’s room for improvement, and I think it comes at some point, so I’m trying to hang on to Lopez if I can. I wouldn’t say he’s untouchable, but that it’d take a nice return to pry him off my team.

Logan Webb Fantasy Outlook

Webb has already made four starts, going 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA, but he’s posted quality starts three times. He’s allowed 10 runs on 28 hits and five walks, while striking out 17 over 23 2/3 innings.

Webb has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, or one to post elite ERAs, but instead has been a SP that eats a ton of innings and wins double-digit games each year. He looks to be on his way to a pretty similar season.

There also looks to be room for improvement in the hits allowed and ERA departments, so Webb is another guy I’d try to hang on to. Like in the case with Lopez, if someone offers a trade for Webb, I’d need a pretty big return to consider it.

Framber Valdez Fantasy Outlook

Valdes is another pitcher that hit the injured list recently. He’s dealing with left elbow inflammation, which is something that fantasy owners need to monitor closely.

He doesn’t have a win or loss across two starts so far. Valdez has a 2.19 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings, while surrendering three runs on 11 hits and six walks.

Not many fantasy owners in standard leagues are going to be willing to trade for a pitcher that’s sidelined (especially this year with all the big injuries), so the owners that roster him are just going to have to hope for the best and that Valdez is able to come back and continue the strong start he was off to.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Fantasy Outlook

Many wondered how Yamamoto would open his MLB career, and it’s been pretty mixed results across four starts. He’s 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA across 16 innings pitched. Yamamoto has surrendered eight runs on 13 hits and four walks, but has 21 strikeouts already.

I expect more ups and downs over the course of the season, but have been pleased with his showings so far and believe he could be a pretty good fantasy SP this season.

Yamamoto is a pitcher that could be dangled out in trades, but I also don’t think his value is as high as his draft status, so I’d try to hang on to him for a while longer.

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