March Madness Day 1 Betting Notes
Some of the interesting facts from the first day of the NCAA tournament from a gambling perspective.
March Madness is one of the biggest gambling occasions of the year, with bettors flocking to physical sportsbooks and nervously watching the online counterparts as games take place throughout four days over the first weekend.
While the first day was a disappointment in terms of madness, there was one big upset, a few other good finishes, and a refreshing taste of what’s to come.
I made some notes about the outcomes of Thursday’s games in betting terms, focusing on favorites/underdogs, over/unders, and all the other lingo we degenerate gamblers are familiar with.
These statistics will mean more after another day, and they will form a full picture after the first weekend, maybe leaving clues about what to expect in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Everything below is from my own bookkeeping. All games, lines and results are listed at the bottom of the article. The lines were from FanDuel and correct as of noon Eastern time on Thursday.
Notes from Thursday
- In the 16 games, 10 favorites and six underdogs covered. Samford was the only underdog to cover but not win outright, losing to Kansas by four.
- Four teams with worse seeds were favored (No. 9 Michigan State, No. 10 Nevada, No. 10 Drake and No. 11 Oregon). Two won and covered, while the 10 seeds both lost.
- Eight games went over the total and eight went under.
- Six of 10 favorite wins went over and four under; just two of six underdog wins went over, with four under.
- Top-three seeds were 6-1 outright and against the spread, with No. 4 Kentucky losing to No. 13 Oakland by four points.
What does it mean for Friday?
One day doesn’t tell us much, and no trend from Thursday should be trusted on Friday if it isn’t true throughout the season. The large sample is what’s most likely to happen. Still, there are a few things I will be watching each day.
Just two worse seeds are favored on the second day: No. 9 TCU over No. 8 Utah State and No. 11 New Mexico over No. 6 Clemson. The four teams with similar circumstances Thursday split 2-2 in both winning and covering.
Three No. 1 seeds are each favored by over 20 points: UConn, Purdue and Houston. Two teams were favored by 20+ points Thursday (No. 1 UNC and No. 2 Tennessee) and they both covered the spread.
Eight teams on Friday are favored by 9.5 or more points. Eight teams met the same mark yesterday and were 6-2 both outright and against the spread. The high seeds and heavy favorites generally took care of business on the first proper day of the tournament.
Conclusion
There’s not a lot to take away after just one day. The end of Friday will allow us to compare results and see if any trends held and what went the other way. More data means more analysis.
I plan to write something similar at the end of each day of the tournament with a breakdown of the day’s games and context of the tournament as a whole. Check back tomorrow to see how Day 2 compares to Day 1.
Thursday Matchups
Michigan State (-1.5) over Mississippi State 69-51 (O/U 130.5)
Duquesne (+9.5) over BYU 71-67 (O/U 142.5)
Creighton (-12.5) over Akron 77-60 (O/U 143.5)
Arizona (-19.5) over Long Beach St 85-65 (O/U 163.5)
North Carolina (-24.5) over Wagner 90-62 (O/U 133.5)
Illinois (-11.5) over Morehead St 85-69 (O/U 145.5)
Oregon (-1.5) over South Carolina 87-73 (O/U 134.5)
Dayton (+1.5) over Nevada 63-60 (O/U 136.5)
Texas (-2.5) over Colorado St 56-44 (O/U 144.5)
Oakland (+13.5) over Kentucky 80-76 (O/U 160.5)
Iowa St (-15.5) over South Dakota St 82-65 (O/U 135.5)
Gonzaga (-6.5) over McNeese 86-65 (O/U 149.5)
Tennessee (-21.5) over Saint Peter’s 83-49 (O/U 130.5)
NC State (+4.5) over Texas Tech 80-67 (O/U 145.5)
Washington St (+1.5) over Drake 66-61 (O/U 138.5)
Kansas (-6.5) over Samford 93-89 (O/U 154.5)
#2024-march-madness
