Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Is it Time to Move Corbin Carroll?
Discussing Corbin Carroll as a trade option in the sixth week of the fantasy baseball season.
While perusing the FantasySP Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer on the first day of May, I came across the name Corbin Carroll quite a bit.
With that in mind, I decided to discuss some of the popular trades he was a part of, and determine whether or not Carroll should be traded away.
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Carroll’s Season/Career Numbers
Carroll was a breakout star in 2023, but has really struggled to get going in 2024.
Across his first 29 games, Carroll had just a .193 average and .292 on-base percentage. He’s doubled three times and homered only once among his 22 total hits. Carroll has driven in five runs, scored 13 times, stolen eight bases, walked 15 times and struck out on 22 occasions.
A promising thing for Carroll is that he had hits in the final two games of April, but he also struck out five times over the past five games.
He’s coming off a 2023 season in which he hit .285 and got on base at a .362 clip. He had 30 doubles, 10 triples and 25 homers among his 161 total hits. Carroll drove in 76 runs, scored 116 times, stole 54 bases, walked 57 times and struck out on 125 occasions.
Some quick math shows that Carroll is way off the pace to match almost all of those numbers. The slow start to the season has fantasy owners ready to bail on the 23-year-old Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder.
Popular Trades and More Stats
Carroll is a part of five total popular trades in the FSP Trade Analyzer. I want to focus on the four trades where he’s being swapped for one player - not any multiplayer deals.
Carroll is part of trades with New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez, Toronto Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and Tampa Bay Rays’ Randy Arozarena. If you’ve been following statistics somewhat closely this season, you know a lot of these players are also struggling to begin the 2024 season.
Carroll was the 10th player picked in fantasy drafts this spring, according to FSP Average Draft Position data. His trade value was one of the best in the league to start the season, but he’s dropped to 12th, and will continue to drop unless he turns things around.
Judge is ranked 52nd on the Trade Value Charts, after being the 13th player taken. Rodriguez was the 16th player taken and now sits seventh on the TVC. Guerrero currently sits 27th on the TVC after being the 22nd player taken. Arozarena sits 42nd on the TVC and was the 64th player taken. Keep in mind that their big names and past success are carrying their TVC marks right now - most of their values will drop a good bit the longer they struggle into the season.
Across Judge’s first 31 games, he owned a .207 average and .340 OBP. He’s doubled and homered six times among his 24 total hits, has driven in 18 runs, scored 12 times, stolen one base, walked 23 times and struck out on 38 occasions.
Rodriguez is hitting .256 and has a .298 OBP. He’s doubled three times and homered once among his 30 total hits. Rodriguez has driven in and scored 11 runs, stolen seven bases, walked six times and struck out on 40 occasions.
Vladdy Jr. is hitting .229 and has a .331 OBP across his first 31 games, with five doubles and three homers among his 27 total hits. He’s driven in 11, scored 11 runs, walked 17 times and struck out on 28 occasions.
Arozarena is hitting .143 across his first 30 games, with a .220 OBP. He’s doubled twice and homered three times among his 16 total hits. Arozarena has nine RBIs, four steals, 12 runs scored, 11 walks and 36 strikeouts.
Trade Advice, with Help from the Trade Analyzer
Carroll still has a higher trade value than Judge, Guerrero and Arozarena, while Rodriguez has him beat by a bit. Based on each player’s season stats though, I’m guessing any of these names would at least tempt a fantasy owner to move off of Carroll.
All of these players have started slowly, and I fully expect them all to be much better hitters by the end of the season. You might be best served to simply hold on to the player you currently have. But, that’s not the point of these articles, and I’m here to offer some trade advice, so that’s what I’m going to do.
If your fantasy team is lacking power, Judge makes a lot of sense to acquire for Carroll. Guerrero is a ways behind Judge, but also ahead of the other three guys by a decent bit in the power department.
If you are after higher average and stolen base guys, Carroll and Rodriguez are the ones you’d want. Arozarena doesn’t really excel in one area, but typically is a well-rounded fantasy hitter.
Of course, if you are trading a struggling outfielder (Carroll), it probably makes sense to get one in return, and Judge, Arozarena and Rodriguez all accomplish that. Guerrero is the lone infielder (first base), so he’d make sense to acquire if you are still set in the OF, even without Carroll around.
Not factoring in their positions or any specific team needs, I personally like the idea of moving Carroll for Rodriguez, but would otherwise rather have Carroll (over Judge, Arozarena and Guerrero). I try to stick with my preseason rankings as long as I can, and by having Carroll third in redraft leagues, the only one I’d be comfortable moving him for is Rodriguez (who I ranked fourth).
In time, my thoughts/opinions could change, but for now, I’m holding out hope that Carroll (and the rest of these players) get going at the plate.
#trade #2024-fantasy-baseball
