Way Too Early Fantasy Football Sleepers: Post-Draft Musings on Drake Maye, Keon Coleman, J.K. Dobbins and Luke Musgrave
Maybe it's too early for the Tacos of your fantasy football league, but we're geared up and looking forward to the 2024 NFL season's sleepers.
Is it ever really "way too early" for anything fantasy football? Not in my mind, but that's what we'll call this sleeper breakdown. Even as the dust has yet to settle after the 2024 NFL Draft, it's time to evaluate who's already getting slept on.
My definition of a sleeper is not a player no one has heard of. It's simply a player being drafted well below their actual value. A sleeper is a quarterback with top-10 potential being drafted in the 20s. Or a running back some might view as a bench stash that could perform like an RB2 (RB13-RB24).
With my parameters established, here is one player per fantasy-relevant position that I call a post-draft sleeper.
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
I'm shooting my shot. You could argue a veteran like Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers. Maybe you believe Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield will continue to grow more comfortable with their offenses.
What we all want is the moonshot. Maye is sitting around QB30 in most fantasy football rankings. That's fair. Looking at the Pats' depth chart does little to drum up confidence. I like Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, the two rookie receivers added in the second and fourth rounds.
My bet has more to do with the chatter leading up to the draft. Where people enjoyed hanging out with Maye. Where stories about him sharing his NIL opportunities with his teammates. Instead of hitting the transfer portal for even more NIL money, he stayed loyal to North Carolina.
Watching his tape, the big thing that jumped out to me was Maye's controlled aggression. Yes, he often looks for the big play, but I also saw a guy having fun. With coaching and polish, Maye will take big steps this summer and be the blossoming starter over Jacoby Brissett in Week 1. I don't expect big numbers immediately, but by the second half of the season, he will be the clear standout among this loaded 2024 class of quarterbacks.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Identity. Some teams have them, some teams don't. If it's any guess what the Chargers will be doing this year, it's running the football. Jim Harbaugh isn't installing the Wishbone but is a more old-school coach. Just ask his first-round pick, offensive tackle Joe Alt. Talk about setting the tone. He wants to limit the big risks that need to be taken by a quarterback. I expect physical play, stout defense, and a balanced offense.
We know the pitfalls for those dipping their toes back into the water with Dobbins. Every year is supposed to be the year. I'd argue that we've heard this all before. However, the draft capital necessary to land him is at an all-time low.
Dobbins is ranked RB53. His ADP is 166 (13.10). That's a bench stash player who should be the Week 1 starter in a Harbaugh-led offense. If it's not Dobbins, I want a piece of Gus Edwards. The best running back sleepers are the ones who get touches, and Dobbins is just the right mix of being in a run-minded offense with a low cost of entry on draft day.
Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen's top target in 2024 might not be Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir. It won't be Dalton Kincaid of Dalton Knox. My early bet is on former Florida State rookie Keon Coleman. Many pundits have cooled on him because he ran slow at the combine (4.61 40), but that was never his game.
Part of being an NFL receiver is body control, jump balls and boxing out in traffic. When I watch Coleman's tape, I see a big, physical receiver with incredible hands, focus, length and a knack for making plays. We all are drawn to the Xavier Worthy types, the Tyreeks, the speed demons. Some guys are built more like Marques Colston.
You also can't deny his YAC potential. Once he gets the ball, he's not stepping out of bounds. He's a physical power forward looking to drop his shoulder into somebody's sternum. Right now, Coleman is being drafted as the WR53. I am sure that will climb closer to the low 40s by the time draft season begins in late summer.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
Even though Tucker Kraft got some shine last year, it was because of Musgrave's injury-related absence over the second half of the season. The big second-year tight end is the definition of a safety blanket. Standing at 6'5", he's a big target with above-average route running.
He's a great athlete and runs faster than his size suggests. I don't believe Christian Watson has the finesse to be a reliable red-zone target, and Musgrave does.
Being drafted as the TE17, there's a hesitancy because Jordan Love tends to spread it around, and Kraft is lingering in people's minds. That's valid. But we want a low-cost opportunity on draft day. Musgrave is a good late-round target with youth and upside in an underappreciated offense.
