NHL Best Bets & Player Props (2/23/23): Alex Ovechkin Returns!
If you’ve been following along and reading these articles this season, I just wanted to thank you and let you know I really appreciate it. If you are brand new to them, welcome aboard. This Thursday night features a 10-game slate, with the lone back-to-back team being the Flames of all teams as they leave the den of the desert pups for the Vegas strip to take on the Golden Knights.
As always, I will cover my favorite game lines and player props, utilizing what I refer to as my balanced analytical and narrative approach to betting. One thing I wanted to point out on this slate was as of Wednesday night, we had three games tomorrow with seven-goal game totals already, otherwise, I would have written up an over total in the Blues/Canucks game as well as the Lightning/Sabres. I encourage responsible gambling and shopping your odds across the markets out there for the most value in your betting over time. Let’s jump right into it.
NHL Game Lines To Target Tonight
Vegas Golden Knights In-Regulation +105/Money line -140 Versus Calgary
I alluded to this one in the introduction, as it is no secret that this is a great schedule spot for Vegas and not so much for the Calgary Flames. Couple this with the ongoing issues in Calgary, whether they will make Vladar go in the net again for two nights in a row or turn to Markstrom who has been horrific in the net I like how this sets up for the Golden Knights. Although I don’t like the first game after a road trip back at home, I’d argue that doesn’t really apply as much here for the Knights as they had four home games before the one game in Chicago. I think you can certainly make cases for in-regulation or money line bets or splitting some up even into smaller bets.
Edmonton Oilers Money line -105 at Pittsburgh
I was kicking myself for not grabbing Edmonton right around when this opened as they were at +100, but I feel strongly this spot still offers us some value, as I have the Oilers in better recent form. In addition, Jarry has yet to have found a strong showing since returning from injury while the Penguins have had some downright horrific defensive expected goal metrics for a solid month now, and not much better going past that as well. I’m struggling to find any legitimate reasons to stay off the Oilers or to back Pittsburgh here, so I will take the team that should have been favored and by more all along.
Boston Bruins In-Regulation -105 at Seattle
The Kraken did knock off the Bruins in Boston last month, but I am going to back the Bruins here in what should be a revenge game tonight, as they are simply the better team. In the last ten games, the Bruins are 10th in expected goals for percentage per 60 minutes while the Kraken are 24th in the same category. I expect the game to reflect this, with the Bruins driving the play and possession more so than the Kraken will. The Bruins are also one of the few teams I don’t really care too much about which goaltender gets the nod as both have been very good to elite this season. Even though I think this may be a somewhat close game on the scoreboard and these top teams scare me this time of the season, I have the Bruins getting this done in regulation.
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NHL Player Props To Target Tonight
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +130 at Pittsburgh
If pressed for one that is my favorite above the others, this prop may be it. The Penguins are allowing the 25th most shots on goal to left-wingers on the season, and are 29th over the last 20 games, so slightly trending even worse. To top this off, I know that over a recent five to 10 game sample, they’re also allowing over four expected goals per 60 number as well, which is swiss cheese. Hyman has the role on the top line and top power play with McDavid and this one is showing the biggest edge in the model I use at the moment too.
Alex Ovechkin Over 4.5 Shots on Goal -120 Versus Anaheim
This one is super simple although I don’t make a habit of taking over 4.5 shots. Our thoughts have been with Ovi and his family during this rough time. Ovechkin’s first game back after a break to mourn the loss of his father could not be a better matchup as they will get the Ducks, who allow the most shots in the league from various positions all season long and over the recent sample! I’d not be surprised if Ovechkin hits double-digit shots on goal tonight in all honesty, so I’m willing to go over on the 4.5 but I’d advise a smaller play on it as a result, I bumped this one down to a quarter unit.
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots on Goal -110 Versus Buffalo
I was surprised to see this hanging around at nearly even money, as the Sabres are the sixth worst in the league when it comes to conceding shots against the right-wing position. This is where you’ll find none other than the freak machine that is Kucherov on the top line and power play for the Lightning. He does this against far tougher teams all the time, and Buffalo has not really been much better over the recent sample, either.
I always like to at least explore an anytime goal sprinkle on my shot props and recommend doing so on these tonight. You can find me on Twitter @DanH720 and follows and DM’s are always welcomed and very appreciated. Good luck tonight!
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