NHL Best Bets & Player Props (2/16/23): Kyle Connor, Teuvo Teravainen & More!
This Thursday night slate features an eight-game slate with many of the same teams from Tuesday night’s slate and with only the Redwings on a pure back-to-back situation. We are getting to the stage of the season where every point in the standings comes at a premium for some teams fighting for playoff position and life. At the same time, as we get closer and closer to the trade deadline, it is definitely wise to stay on top of these latest developments from slate to slate and for any futures betting considerations. I’m a fan of planning ahead when it comes to futures betting and game lines as well. When a team is trending hard a certain way over a recent sample, and the books are adjusting to it, it becomes even more important to be able to jump on early value or be able to adapt with an alternate, yet equally effective betting angle. All that being said, let’s jump right into what should be a good slate once again.
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NHL Game Lines To Target Tonight
Boston Bruins In-Regulation -105 at Nashville to -125
Although I was surprised to see the Predators trending upward over the last ten in some of the main even strength metrics, and although I tend to believe the ridiculous run the Bruins have been on all season is impressive yet unsustainable, I still think they have a considerable advantage tonight. The money line is sitting near minus 190 at most books, which is not good enough to make my card, but I do think the Bruins are going to handle the Preds here most of the time in sixty minutes. Not helping the Preds’ cause, Filip Forsberg has been out with an injury as well and is listed as day-to-day, and his return for tonight is in question at the time of writing this. This angle is a prime example of what I described in my opening paragraph earlier, so I am locking in a unit play on it.
Vegas Golden Knights Puck line -1.5 +125 to +110
Looking at the recent history between these two and trying to find something concrete will make your head spin a bit and get you perplexed, as they’ve traded some wins for the road teams in this one over the last five head-to-head. However, I’m also looking at how these teams are currently trending, and I certainly feel better about how Vegas has been playing as of late here, posting some dominant wins by multiple goals in each of their last three. Although the Golden Knights have been actually outscoring their expected goals metric over the last 10 games, they’ve also been driving most of the play, as they sit sixth in the league in expected goals for percentage per 60 minutes. The last part of that is encouraging to me, so let’s take the Golden Knights to win by two or more here.
Florida Panthers Money line -110 at Washington to -125
This one is simple for me. The Panthers have had some mixed results as of late, however against the Capitals they’ve won the most recent four in a row of the last five. Being that the Panthers sit 13 points back of the Lightning for third place in the Atlantic division, their best hope for making the playoffs is to get in via a wild card spot. For the last wild card spot in the east, the Panthers sit just two points behind the Capitals, with a chance to tie up with them for that final wild card spot with a win in regulation tonight, leapfrogging the Islanders who are not playing tonight. The Capitals figure to be again without Ovechkin, who is out for personal reasons, which really makes it tougher for this team to succeed. These odds are simply too good for the hungrier team who’s clearly playing in better form. Although they disappointed us Tuesday, tonight we go right back to the well with Florida for a unit play on the money line.
NHL Player Props To Target Tonight
Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +102 at Columbus
I’m going right back to a go-to of mine here as this should not be sitting at plus-money as frequently as Connor hits this, being one of the more consistent rate shooters in the league. Columbus sits right in the middle as far as shots allowed against left wings and is a bottom-three team overall defensively. I also don’t mind the very same bet for his linemate, Nikolaj Ehlers. I’d definitely also sprinkle an anytime goal on them, as Connor’s sits at +126 and Ehlers’ at +172. A small factor in why I have a slight lean-to Connor over Ehlers here is that Connor gets the top power play role while Ehlers is on the second unit.
Teuvo Teravainen Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +110 versus Montreal
I’ll preface this by saying a lot of Carolina Hurricanes players are in consideration for shot props tonight. However, it surprised me a bit to see the tear that Teuvo has been on lately in putting pucks on the net. This matchup presents a positive game environment as well against a Montreal team that is very depleted personnel-wise. The Habs allow the second-most shots on goal to right wingers, our projections have him at three shots, and he’s also on the top power play for Carolina. I also like defenseman Brent Burns to hit his over 2.5 shots, but we are not getting nearly as good odds for it.
David Pastrnak Over 4.5 Shots on Goal -108 at Nashville
I know what you’re thinking already, no way he is going to do this, but yeah I totally am. Over the last twenty games, the Preds are the worst in the league in terms of giving up shots to Pastrnak’s right-wing position. It doesn’t hurt that the Preds are generally a wreck at even strength and not playing their best as of late. I don’t need to build a case for Pastrnak and I think he continues to feel it tonight after buying that game-winning goal in overtime in Dallas last time out. However, I don't see any value on the anytime goal sprinkle here, as it is too steep odds and goaltending is a strength of Nashville with Saros especially. Our free projections also have him at five shots on goal, so I will take the over 4.5 shots.
You can find me on Twitter @DanH720. Follows and DM's are much appreciated. Good luck tonight!
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