NHL Best Bets & Player Props (2/14/23): Sidney Crosby, Ondrej Palat & More!
We are definitely in the thick of the final stretch of the season, with the trade deadline also under three weeks away. It is also pretty crazy to think in about two months we will have the playoffs starting as well, as I’d argue it is the best playoffs there are in sports and certainly a different season from a betting perspective too. But for tonight, we have a nine-game slate featuring some of the heavyweights such as Boston and Carolina, with Florida and Ottawa on the second half of road back-to-backs. Per usual, I will find my favorite game line and player prop wagers for the slate. My hope isn’t necessarily that you just blindly trust me and tail me, although it is appreciated. It is that you learn something from these articles you can apply to building your own betting cards. Let’s dive in.
Check out our brand new NHL DFS Optimizer and export up to 150 lineups to your DFS Site of choice!
NHL Game Lines To Target
Florida Panthers Money line -120 at Saint Louis
Yes, I am backing the team that played the previous night and also went to a shootout as well. I don’t normally do this and will try to explain why I am tonight. I expect Spencer Knight to get the nod tonight for the Panthers after Bobrovsky got the start last night, after missing some time. Although the Blues have got Ryan O’Reilly back, they have cemented themselves as clearcut sellers well before the trade deadline by making the deal that sent Tarasenko to the Rangers.
In four of the last five games, the Blues have given up at least four goals or more and have lost four of the five, snapping the losing skid the last time out with a 6-5 win over the Coyotes. I make this line close to -145 for the Panthers, so if you can find better, I think you have a wager. I think that snapping the streak the last time out actually can only help our cause here as the Blues are playing poorly enough, that this wreaks of a setback game. Additionally, the Panthers sit just three points out of a playoff spot in the east with some teams between them and the last wildcard spot while the Blues have put themselves ten points back from the final wildcard spot in the west. Give me the Panthers to keep Stanley C Panther to keep growling here.
Winnipeg Jets -144 Money line or In-Regulation versus Seattle
I was actually just discussing this with some friends the other day, how the Kraken have had simply an unsustainable shooting percentage as a team thus far on the season, and to expect it to come back down to earth. The Jets on the other hand, seemingly quietly, have been one of the better clubs out there, especially on home ice this season.
It could not be more obvious that the market reflects this with the Jets money line taking about 80% of bets and about 95% of the money, which tells us that sharps and the public alike are on this one. I’ve actually had the Kraken marked to find opportunities to capitalize on, and this is a good one. The real question is how you decide to back the Jets. I would personally not go much farther than about -145 and start looking to the in-regulation play instead at that point. It also does not hurt that they are going to have a significant advantage in the net more than likely as well.
Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars Under 5.5 Total Goals at +100
Yes, I see this thing is shaded to the over at about -120 on most books. Yes, both of these teams can score as the Bruins are still atop the league or close in goals per game while the Stars, though more middling, can sometimes get them in bunches.
However, both teams are elite defensively and in net, to the point where I would probably say this is an extremely rare matchup that I would consider an under 5.5 total as it’s normally something I don’t do in today’s NHL. It doesn’t hurt that we are expecting Ullmark and Oettinger in the net as well, as both are stellar goaltenders. I’d only probably play this to a minus 110 or minus 115 and would lean towards the Bruins for a side here potentially as well or in lieu depending on what odds you can get for that versus the total comparatively. If there’s only worse than +100 out there, I’d probably reduce it to a half-unit wager.
Check out the top legal online sportsbook offers and promotions in the United States!
NHL Player Props To Target
Nicklas Backstrom Under 1.5 Shots on Goal +118 to +110
Backstrom has a solid role for the Capitals, on the second line and in the net front spot on the top power play. The issue is the matchup and game environment, coupled with the fact that over his career, he is simply not a big rate shooter. The Hurricanes suppress shots at an elite level, and our projections have him for just one shot on goal. You may wait and see if we get a 2.5 to go under, but I am not sure it gets there.
Sidney Crosby Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -125 to -145 at San Jose
Other than the last time out at the Kings, Crosby has been hitting this mark as of late. I project this matchup to be one of the higher-paced on the slate, and our projections have him for three shots on goal. Couple this with San Jose being 28th in the league at stopping shots on goal from centers, and even worse over their last 10-20 games, about 30th and I think we have a solid prop here.
Ondrej Palat Anytime Goal +260 at Columbus
Palat is not really known as being the best rate shooter in the world and our projections have him for just two shots tonight, however, I consider this a great matchup as Columbus has been teetering on historically bad defensive numbers this season. He also has the role right now, on the top line and power play, so I’m advocating for a sprinkle here of a tenth of a unit to a quarter unit-sized wager. Normally, we see worse odds for something like this.
Good luck tonight! You can find me on Twitter @DanH720. Follows are always appreciated and DMs are certainly welcome as well.
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
#nhl-bets