NHL Best Bets and Player Props (2/7/23)
Hope everyone enjoyed a little break from the ice but now it is time for the final stretch of the regular season, indeed an exciting time of year if you love hockey. For this Tuesday we have a six-game slate including the Lightning and Islanders traveling a bit to get home and play the second half of a back-to-back and the Ducks will be on a real road back-to-back as they travel from Dallas to Chicago. As usual, I’m going to identify my favorite betting angles on the slate as far as game lines and player props are concerned.
NHL Game Lines To Target
Edmonton Oilers In-Regulation +100 at Detroit
These two meet in their first game back after the break. The Oilers are elite at driving play over the last ten at second in the league and sit 11th for the season in expected goals for percentage per 60 while the Wings are 26th in the last ten and 27th on the season. I’d also say that this does give some idea of what these teams are at this stage of the season. This inability to drive play has been an unfortunate issue for a Detroit team that has started to show some potential over the last couple of seasons.
Although it is a smaller factor in how I weigh in betting decisions, I also think the Oilers possess a significant advantage in goaltending in this matchup. Husso is also at -4.1 goals saved above expected while Skinner has held +2.7 goals saved above expected.
I significantly prefer the Oilers overall at even strength and when on the man advantage, they have the most lethal power play in the league against the 21st-ranked kill in Detroit as well. Although the Oiler's defense is always a liability when backing them, I’m okay here grabbing this at plus-money to -110 while it's there or considering another Edmonton angle if not.
Colorado Avalanche Money line -105 to -120 at Pittsburgh
Although on paper I expect this to be a hard-fought, closer, but higher-scoring contest between two teams in similar positions at this point in the season, I was just a bit surprised from the market standpoint to not be seeing -125 or more for the Avs here. The Penguins were struggling defensively going into the break, including giving up six goals against the Sharks on home ice. They’ve shown they’re able to score but have had a tougher time than Colorado on the defensive side.
Should this be a closer game, I do prefer the goaltending matchup here on the Colorado side, as their duo has been amongst the elite in the league in various metrics. I also prefer the Avs at even strength and would argue no team really has a major advantage on special teams.
NHL Player Props to Target
Leon Draisatl Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -155 at Detroit
Detroit is kind of a middling team when it comes to how well they suppress shot attempts. Sometimes, they are okay with it, and for others, it is a different story. I fully expect Draisatl to skate on the second line at Detroit tonight, which I like for his over shot total more than if he were on the top line with McDavid on the road. He’ll still have the top power play role and has hit this mark consistently on the road all season, making it a fine straight bet or prop parlay piece for tonight.
Trevor Zegras Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +100 at Chicago
I think this Ducks and Blackhawks game should have one of the crazier paces out of all the games tonight even though Anaheim is on the back-to-back. Expect Zegras to center the top line and be on the top power play, as he’s averaged a little over 19 minutes of time on ice this season. Although his team went to a shootout in Dallas last night and traveled, I think it is somewhat absurd to see these kinds of odds for him to get three shots versus a team that concedes a ton of shots. Chicago has been 21st against centers over the last 10, 20 games roughly but 27th overall on the season when it comes to giving up shots to opposing centers. Additionally, his linemate, Troy Terry, was injured last night and his status is in question for tonight. If he doesn't go, I'd expect Zegras to have an even higher shot share when it comes to that top line. I’d also like to sprinkle his anytime goal as well which is sitting at +172 right now on FanDuel Sportsbook with the best odds.
Just a reminder, the more sportsbook options you give yourself the better so when you go to line shop you have the best odds available at which to place your wager. You may find me on Twitter @DanH720 and best of luck tonight!
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