NHL Best Bets & Player Props (1/12/23): Nkita Kucherov & More!
Another nice slate tonight, another opportunity to extract value and profits! I guess if I really wanted to complain, I’d prefer six to eight-game slates every night seven days a week, but this whole four and ten-game slates back and forth works well too. Only the Leafs and the Predators are on back ends of back-to-back sets, and we will want to monitor Auston Matthews’ status more than likely if you are looking at anything in that matchup with Detroit. Let’s dive right in.
NHL Game Lines To Target
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 Puck line at Chicago, -115 to -135
This one is simple. We have an assumingly pissed-off team in Colorado, who, despite losing, found a way to rattle off a few unanswered goals in a row in that third period versus Florida on Tuesday night. Then we have this Blackhawks team that is one of the worst in the league and got a random and unfathomable win over the Flames out of their system the other night. I think this line should be closer to -160, but generally dislike going past about -135 on puck line favorites, which is the only reason I am saying “to -135” here.
Toronto at Detroit, Under 6.5 goals, +105 to -120
Detroit is on what I would call the slow and steady rebuild plan of drafting and developing. They’re at a point now where they are decent enough at turning games into a lower event, coinflip-type games, and hanging around when maybe they shouldn’t be even sometimes. I don’t know Matthews’ status, and obviously, if he does play, it is a situation where he alone is one of a small elite handful of players that offensively move a betting line without a doubt. However, Toronto has been one of the better defensive teams at even strength this season. I also like the fact Toronto is on the back half of the back-to-back as well, and Samsonov is probably one of my favorite backups or “1B” goalies in the league as well, so let’s stay under here.
Carolina at Columbus, Under 6.5 goals, -120 to -135
Didn’t these two teams just play? Yeah, they did alright. They also went to a shootout, where Columbus won in dramatic fashion with a 4-3 final on Saturday, cashing the over-the-total ticket. However, I’m taking the under here as I think seeing each other again here tends to favor the under-the-total. It doesn’t hurt that over the last ten, the Jackets are dead last in goals per 60 with an abysmal 1.33, and their expected goals are not much better at 2.29 over that span. Carolina is on the other end of this spectrum, but I am willing to take the chance that Columbus doesn’t do much of anything to hurt our under here. I’d also entertain a Carolina puck line wager here too and may add it to my card, but for now, this is my favorite bet in this game.
NHL Player Props to Target
I’ve explained my philosophy on how I bet player props a few times now, but if you are new to my articles, it goes something like this. I take a cumulative look at individual possession metrics, role, and time on ice, and look for the games that expect to have a good pace to them and ideally an easier matchup. The easier matchup is icing on the cake, or a luxury box to be able to check off when determining which players, we want to wager on, but the aforementioned factors and the actual numbers and odds of these are what most dictate if we have ourselves a wager worth placing or not as a reminder. If you are newer to betting and are curious about what goes into player prop wagers behind the scenes, I’m planning to drop an article next Monday or Tuesday which will look at the meanings of individual metrics as well as game environments to find us winning player prop bets.
Mikko Rantanen Over 3.5 shots on goal -135 at Chicago
One of the more consistent forwards in the league in terms of peppering the net this season and scoring as well here versus one of the bottom feeders that just gives up way too much defensively. Our free projections have him at five shots, and I’d not be surprised to see six or more here honestly, so I’m locking this in. As always, you could look at a sprinkle for him to get two points or to score a goal as well. I also am looking at perhaps a wager on a MacKinnon over 4.5 shots too, but I like this one a bit more.
Kyle Connor Over 3.5 shots on goal +125 at Buffalo
Back to this well again we go, as I cannot ever say enough about how underrated he is. Buffalo has no issues scoring goals but keeping it out of their own end and net is a different story here. This was currently available at +125 so I am grabbing it and would play it down to +110. He’s pretty much always worth a look at a sprinkle on his anytime goal at plus-money too.
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 shots on goal -115 versus Vancouver
Kucherov is a shooting machine, and the Canucks are as leaky defensively as it gets, allowing 2.96 expected goals per 60 rate over the last ten games. Our free daily projections have him at four shots on goal tonight and I think we will see that or better here, and I am playing this down to -125. I don’t mind a tiny sprinkle on all three of these into a prop parlay as well, which I plan on doing today.
Good luck tonight, cheers.
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