NHL Best Bets & Player Props (1/10/23): Steven Stamkos, Clayton Keller & More!
We are nearing the midway point of this wonderful time of year known as hockey season. I’m noticing that compared to recent previous seasons, we have a bigger gap between the elite five or so roughly teams in the league when compared to the bottom three to five teams in the league which have chances to be historically bad. We have only one game that comes close to fitting this mold when Tampa Bay hosts Columbus. Let’s see what betting game-line spots I can find that would make for actionable wagers.
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NHL Game Lines To Target
Winnipeg Jets Money line -125 at Detroit Redwings to -145
The Jets find themselves sitting second in the central division, just a point behind the Dallas Stars, with a game in hand. I would say this is deservedly so, this team embracing a better defensive approach with Bowness behind the bench. Meanwhile, the Wings come in having lost three in a row and seven of their last ten during a stretch where underlying they have been in the bottom third of the league in Corsi-for per 60 and in expected goals allowed per 60 as well. Not to mention, the Jets have a cast of characters who excel offensively with suspect goaltending on the other side. Not only that, but it is an interesting narrative that Kyle Connor is back in Michigan as well. This was the first one on my card for tonight and I’d play it to -145.
Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total Over 4 goals -103 to -115
If you look around the market right now, you’ll notice that by the time you read this, the Tampa Bay puck line is either going to be extremely juiced at -1.5 or at 2.5. Although right now I cannot fully rule out a bit of interest on a sprinkle at plus money on this -2.5, I think the safer approach here is to take an over four goals team total on Tampa. The Lightning has right at three in expected goals per 60 both in the last ten and on the season so far, inside the top ten in the league. The Jackets are one of the worst teams in the league, one of the teams in the running to be historically bad, and I like the fact they had a miracle shootout win against the Canes on Saturday and this will be their third game in four days to boot. Look for the Lightning to lay a thumping on the cannon here.
Pittsburgh Penguins versus Vancouver Canucks, over 6.5 goals -120 to -135
No, I’m not just blind betting Canucks games over, but I do think it is still something to consider looking into, though I am noticing these over totals are getting juiced a little harder and more so than they were earlier in the season. Both teams come into this meeting sitting at eighth and 10th in expected goals allowed per sixty over their last ten games. If this looks ugly say minus -150 or seven total when you read this, you can go and peek at a first-period over or Penguins team total potentially.
NHL Player Props To Target
I’ve explained my philosophy on how I bet player props a few times now, but if you are new to my articles, it goes something like this. I take a cumulative look at individual possession metrics, role, and time on ice, and look for the games that expect to have a good pace to them and ideally an easier matchup. The easier matchup is icing on the cake, or a luxury box to be able to check off when determining which players, we want to wager on, but the aforementioned factors and the actual numbers and odds of these are what most dictate if we have ourselves a wager worth placing or not as a reminder.
Jack Hughes under 4.5 shots on goal -130 at Carolina
Yes, you read this correctly. This is the first under shot total I’ve ever had in here. So why this spot? Carolina simply dominates possession better than any other team in the NHL, as they put 67 shots up against Nashville last week. Though I love the new talent that is Jack Hughes and he’s been peppering the net of late, this number is too high in this matchup, and our projections have him at three shots on goal, plus I see a lovely model edge in this bet, so I’m adding a half unit to my card.
Steven Stamkos over 2.5 shots on goal -175, versus Columbus
Let me preface this one by saying I rarely ever take any kind of bet that is juiced this heavily as Stammer is here, however, this is a great matchup for him, and I fully expect him to smash tonight. I still saw model edges on backing Stamkos to get 3 or more shots, so I like the over 2.5 straight, but think it is a solid player prop parlay leg to add to a player prop parlay if that is something you’re interested in. Otherwise, I’m seeing some 3.5 starting to show up out there at slightly minus money, which I’m less bullish on but think around even money you’d have to consider it as well. I also have to give an honorable mention to his teammate, Nikita Kucherov, who’s another option here as well, I would advise picking one or the other over both.
Clayton Keller over 2.5 shots on goal +117, versus San Jose
Although the Coyotes have the “bad team” tag to most, I like Keller to get some pucks on the net tonight, as he has plenty of role and ice time along with the way he finds ways to put pucks on net, that simple. San Jose, I’d call a somewhat middling matchup, as they are middle of the pack in the last ten games in most team defensive metrics, but this line should probably be minus money, so grab it at plus money instead.
Honorable Mentions
With Rantanen and MacKinnon both projecting at five shots on goal, I think one would want to check on their shot prop total overs. I’m also considering an anytime goal from Dylan Guenther, the former first-round pick for the Coyotes, who is in the top six and top power play for Arizona but an anytime goal bet I am seeing +540 at FanDuel right now, which is worth a consideration for a smaller wager.
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