NHL Best Bets & Player Props (1/5/23): Brent Burns, Mika Zibanejad & More!
After a quiet three-game slate last night, we get a nice 10-game slate tonight. The only team on a back-to-back is the New Jersey Devils, who will head home to take on the Blues. Every pick I cover here in bold is a wager on my personal card as well. We are still not quite halfway into the season, so I do think if you have an extra minute this is a great time of year to look at the futures markets. But for now, let's focus on this slate tonight.
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NHL Game Lines To Target
Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings, Over 6 Goals -105, to -120
This is a case of the highest-scoring team in the league in Boston, versus a team that is overvalued in the market in my opinion in the Kings, and generally gets too much credit defensively. As if that weren’t enough, the Kings’ netminder, Copley, is also on a very unsustainable trek so far this season which is a dam that is going to break. I can’t really fathom a team more fit to break this dam than the Boston Bruins at this point in the season. I’d not mind a look at their team total, but for me, the play here is the over on this total.
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 at Vancouver Canucks, +175 to +150
Maybe you jumped aboard the Avs when this opened closer to a -130 money line and if so, I do applaud you. However, if this is not the case, I then would look towards the in-regulation or three-way money line in this spot. I’ve been repetitive about how pathetic defensively the Canucks are and on top of this, there is a chance apparently that Nichuskin plays for Colorado. The Avs have been getting most of the underlying numbers you like to see but not the wins in their last three to five games. This should be a bounce-back spot for the Avs, who are losers of their last two in a row versus a team I cannot respect defensively. I’m fine taking the puck line at significant plus-money, or the in-regulation line around even money, or splitting the wager with the two bet types as well here which is what I did.
Washington Capitals -1.5 at Columbus Blue Jackets, +140 to +125
I’m genuinely impressed with what the Capitals have done to this point without many key players in the lineup and think this team is very legit. Now they are starting to get some guys back sans Carlson who is out long-term, Wilson is close to returning as well versus a struggling Columbus team. Like Colorado, I think you can shop the in-regulation and the puck line here and split these or pick the puck line or the in-regulation.
NHL Player Props To Target
I’ve explained my philosophy on how I bet player props a few times now, but if you are new to my articles, it goes something like this. I take a cumulative look at individual possession metrics, role, and time on ice, and look for the games that expect to have a good pace to them and ideally an easier matchup. The easier matchup is icing on the cake, or a luxury box to be able to check off when determining which players, we want to wager on, but the aforementioned factors and the actual numbers and odds of these are what most dictate if we have ourselves a wager worth placing or not as a reminder.
Brent Burns over 2.5 shots on goal at -135, versus Nashville
A few stars align for this one. First, using our daily player projections, we can see this projects Burns for three shots on goal. Additionally, when looking at a couple of models I use, this is tied for the most projected ROI of all shot props today. I tend to not take defensemen for shot props, but really like this spot for Burns. I also like his teammate, Svechnikov, but this is going to be more heavily juiced than Burns’ prop.
Mika Zibanejad over 3.5 shots on goal at +106, at Montreal
Using our daily player projections here, we have a projection of five shots on goal for Mika tonight which makes a ton of sense against this Montreal team that gives up a lot of shots defensively. I see this playing out well for Mika and would look at his anytime goal props as well, now I see a +146 on Fanduel as the best odds for that in my home state.
Arrturi Lehkonen over 2.5 shots on goal at +110, at Vancouver
This prop really should not be plus money right now. Lehkonen is skating on the top line and power play and averaging about 23 minutes of ice time over his last five. Our projections have him at three shots as well, and I’ve been overly repetitive in my writings about how Vancouver defensively is one of the leakiest in the NHL, giving up a lot in pretty much all the team metrics. Another model I use also shows this to have nearly a 10% edge, so I’m locking in Lehkonen tonight.
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