NHL Game Lines To Target (1/3/23): Can Lightning Stay Red-Hot?
I hope this finds you well to start off 2023. If you are new to my NHL articles, I am strictly looking at my favorite game betting lines, which I’ve already placed as I write this late Monday night. I will list the current odds at the best numbers and lines I am finding from right now to the worst odds I would play on them later. Note that I am on the more strict or particularly picky side when it comes to what kind of odds I take, you’ll literally never see a “-200” moneyline favorite as a straight bet on my card. The NHL is erratic, random, and loaded with variance, so I don’t see the point in backing huge favorites, especially if your goal in the long term is to profit. No order of preference here and I’ve placed one-unit wagers on all the following picks.
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NHL Game Lines To Target
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 at Chicago Blackhawks from -124 to -145
I’ve been taking -1.5 puck line bets against the Hawks all season, and I can only recall maybe one time it did not work out! This time we are talking about one of the most consistently good teams out there and I don’t think even Brian Elliott starting would make me nervous in this spot. I would not be surprised to see this go to -2.5 later on Wednesday.
Carolina Hurricanes -125 at New York Rangers to -140
I’ll preface this by saying I really like both teams in terms of their top-end talents on the ice, but I like the Canes more so far on the season, the last 10, and five games. The Canes are in the top 10 in expected goals-for percentage over the last 10, whereas the Rangers are down in the bottom 10 in the league and think the Canes will more than likely drive play in this game. I see value in the Canes here, for a team that is firing on all cylinders, probably the hottest team in the league right now, that we’d typically see heavier odds on than this. To this point, the line had been moving more heavily towards the Canes, but nothing would surprise me here if it were to continue or start moving towards the Rangers as people see the home dog and back them.
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Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers over 6.5 goals -114 to -130
The Oilers are one of the perfect teams to include in over-total bets this season due to the way they can score and cannot keep the puck out of their own net. I kind of like things to get more out of control without Draisaitl going again, but it doesn’t move the needle much, either way, no diss to Leon. If you see this at seven when reading this, the decision becomes a much tougher one, but I think at some plus-money it’d still be in consideration at minimum. I don't mind taking a look at some Kraken shot props if this happens and you don't like the over-seven.
Calgary Flames -120 at Winnipeg Jets
We saw early sharp money come in on the Flames in this one, about half of the total bets were on the Flames but closer to 85% or so of the money. This usually signals sharps and public both aligning on a team, but it is early as I type this. It is worth noting going from Hellebuyck to a Rittich is a scenario where we have a significant drop-off that is probably one of the bigger ones in the league and in that scenario, you’d get a goalie against a team that mostly knows him as well. I don't expect that tonight, but it is here just in case. In short, I like what the Flames are doing recently much more than Winnipeg, even though overall I really like what both teams are doing so far this season and this line should probably be a bit heavier towards Calgary than this as well.
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 +100 to -115 versus Saint Louis Blues
Other than it being the game back after the trip narrative, I really like the Leafs here, who’ve been humming as of late. You would also maybe be somewhat shocked to hear the Blues are sitting 27th in expected goals for percentage per 60 over the last 10 games. They are missing some key players recently withTarasenko, Krug, and O’Reilly out. This gives Toronto even more of an edge collectively in this one. I try to not get too reactive to a single player being in or out of the lineup, but three is significant, especially these three. A big reason I like the Leafs is defensively this team continues to improve and is actually in the upper echelon of teams defensively so far this season. I would also consider an under-total in this one for anything six or higher.
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