NHL Best Bets & Player Props (12/19/22): Will Alex Ovechkin Surpass Gordie Howe Tonight?
Hope you’ve been enjoying the season so far. Tonight, we get a nice eight-game slate as we get closer to the NHL holiday break. Expect more like this in the schedule this week, which personally I really like in handicapping and in DFS as well.
NHL Players Props To Target
I’ve explained my philosophy on how I bet player props a few times now, but if you are new to my articles, it goes something like this. I take a cumulative look at individual possession metrics, role, and time on ice, and look for the games that expect to have a good pace to them and ideally an easier matchup. The easier matchup is icing on the cake, or a luxury box to be able to check off when determining which players we want to wager on, but the aforementioned factors and the actual numbers and odds of these are what most dictate if we have ourselves a wager worth placing or not as a reminder. Tonight, we have a literal once-in-a-lifetime narrative to look at as Ovechkin tries to tie, or perhaps pass Gordie Howe’s second all-time spot in goals scored.
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Pavel Buchnevich over 2.5 shots on goal at Vancouver
Pavel comes in riding a five-game point streak (four goals, three assists). I absolutely love this spot for him tonight on the second line and top power play versus a Vancouver team we will pick on twice. You can certainly make arguments for his other scoring props as well.
Cole Caufield Over 3.5 shots on goal at Arizona
One of the best shooters in the league against one of the worst teams. I don’t need to say much more.
Jonathan Marchessault Over 3.5 shots on goal versus Buffalo
Buffalo is a leaky defensive team, and Marchessault does come in having hit this in three of the last five contests. There is a potential for him to get even more run in the event Stone is sidelined. At plus money, I think this is worth a play.
Alex Ovechkin various scoring props
Tonight is a special night as Ovi chases Gordie Howe for second on the all-time goal-scoring list. With two goals tonight, he could pass Gordie, which is just insane to think about. All that aside, I think one can simply look at his goal-scoring and two-point or more night props and find something you can roll with here.
NHL Game Lines To Bet On
Buffalo at Vegas Over 6.5 Goals -105, play to -115
We get one team that can score six goals in one period and give up a lot, in Buffalo, versus Vegas, which is not the opposite, but if we look at the last 10 games, which includes missing Eichel, the underlying numbers tell a different story as Vegas is 25th in Corsi allowed per 60 over that span. We tend to think of them as an elite defensive team, but their injuries have certainly hurt them recently as they are right in the middle of the league in goals allowed per 60 over this same 10-game span. I’d go as far as to say that if we had a 100% healthy Vegas, I’m not sure this would be in play, but here we are. Additionally, Skinner is back, which helps Buffalo’s scoring prowess, and Stone is questionable for Vegas. Stone is one of the very best two-way forwards in the game, so there is one definite and one possibly extra factor that would help our over out a bit here if Stone were to sit.
Edmonton at Nashville Over 6.5 Goals -125, play to -135
Edmonton is another team that profiles great for over totals, as they are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, yet also are an inferior defensive team. From what I’ve seen, the Predators are being saved by Saros in the net, time and time again in terms of the goals against not coming as often as they should, as the Preds are bottom 10 in most possession metrics on the season. In Oilers games this season, I think betting on the goals to come is a better play than backing them, and I may be looking to back some dogs against them later, I just don’t entrust Nashville to be that team.
St. Louis Blues Moneyline -105 at Vancouver
The Blues are on a roll, having swept the Alberta back-to-back portion of this current road trip they are on which brings us to tonight in Vancouver. The Canucks are pretty much a fraud in my opinion this season. While they can certainly score, they are downright pathetic defensively, sporting the fourth-worst goals allowed per 60 and the third-worst expected goals allowed per 60, which tells me they are mostly getting what they deserve. Over their last 10 games, the Canucks are giving up the second-most goals in the league as well. I like what the Blues are doing right now and think they emerge with the two points tonight.
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