NHL Best Bets & Player Props (11/17/22)
Hello and welcome to my first NHL betting article as a member of this writing staff! Like many of you, I have a lengthy background in fantasy hockey, specifically DFS, and studying the sport. Let's see what betting values I can find in the realm of player props and game lines for this massive 13-game slate tonight.
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NHL Player Props To Target
I take a cumulative look at individual possession metrics, role, and time on ice, look for easier matchups and focus on filtering anything out that does not fit this bill, especially on huge slates like tonight. The only sort of exceptions would be the first two plays below here, which are two players I consider to be very matchup-proof. Always assess line movement and shop odds before placing bets and certainly don't risk more than you can afford to lose as there is plenty of variance in NHL betting.
Andrei Svechnikov anytime goal vs COL +160
He has 5 goals in his last 5 games with a hat trick as well. Although Colorado was good at shot suppression as a team at 5 on 5 last season, that has not been the case yet this season and the Avs are missing a lot of regulars in the lineup right now. When you couple this with his individual possession (iCF/60) and role, we have a small play on this here.
Mikko Rantanen anytime goal vs CAR at +160
With 7 goals in his last 5 games, including the hat trick in his native Finland, it is no secret that Mikko is absolutely on fire right now. Although the Canes pose a challenging matchup at 5 on 5 (2.1 expected goals allowed/game on the season, 2nd in the NHL), the Avalanche really are leaning heavily on their top guns so I expect his role and matchup-proof talent to once again deliver for us tonight.
Emil Bemstrom Over 1.5/2.5 shots on goal at -195/TBD
This currently is sitting at 1.5 juiced heavily near -200, making it perhaps a better parlay piece with other props but I would rate this as one of the safest places of the night if bet straight by itself. He skated this morning and is expected on the top line and power play tonight. I expect it to jump up to 2.5 at better odds and that is going to still be very much in play so don't fret if you read this and see the 2.5.
Kyle Connor Over 3.5 shots on goal -135
One of the most low-key prolific rate-shooters and goal scorers in the league, check. A very soft matchup versus the worst team in the league, check. (Anaheim is bottom of the barrel in Shots allowed/game, second-worst in expected goals for %-metric indicative of a team that is driving the play or not, this team does not whatsoever. I don't like it quite as much at 4.5, but at + money would have to consider it.
Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 shots on goal at -175
This one projects as one of the best shots on goal props tonight from an expected ROI standpoint in this soft matchup vs the tanking Arizona Coyotes in the "battle of the desert." I would argue this one should not be much of a battle and even though it is heavily juiced, it is a near auto-play and a nice anchor piece for a parlay if you so desire.
Best NHL Game Lines To Target
Calgary at Tampa Bay Under 6.5 at -117, to -130
This is a well I have turned to many times and tonight is no exception with the defensive strength of both teams at 5 on 5, coupled with Vasi in net for Tampa and I'd also expect Markstrom for the Flames. This has been hit with sharp money and I expect it to already be getting juiced and plummeting to 6 as I write this, so if you are about it, I would lock it in as soon as possible.
New Jersey Devils +125 at Toronto
Sure, long winning streaks are tough to keep going as the Devils have done here, but I simply prefer the Devils and will gladly also take the plus-money for a unit on my card tonight. They are really driving play so far on the season, sitting first in the league in expected goals-for percentage as well.
Winnipeg -1.5 vs Anaheim, +125 to +100
I certainly touched on this above so won't repeat myself about just how bad in results and underlying this Ducks team has been. Meanwhile, the Jets have been playing some good hockey this season under new coach Rick Bowness. I'm looking for the Jets to comfortably control things tonight, and this line offers considerable value at plus money.
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