Biggest Round 1 Fantasy Football Impacts On Veteran Players: Najee Harris, Trevor Lawrence, Cole Kmet
While everyone focuses on the rookies, Ted breaks down the veteran NFL players whose fantasy football values saw the most significant movements thanks to Round 1 of the NFL Draft.
The first round of the NFL Draft is in the books, and everyone is talking about this year's rookie class. I myself have already written nearly 2,000 words breaking down the landing spots of all 10 skill position players selected on Thursday night. But first-round picks are so impactful that their landing spots have huge secondary impacts as well, and that's what this article is all about. Let's break down the veteran players whose fantasy football values are on the move after Round 1 of the NFL Draft.
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Biggest Round 1 Fantasy Football Impacts On Veteran Players
RB Najee Harris, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers selected Omarion Hampton, a running back, with their first-round pick. It's difficult to overstate how bad that is for Harris' value. Najee himself was once a first-rounder, but Hampton is undeniably the better back at this stage of both of their careers. At best, Harris will start the season as the Chargers' 1A but be relegated to 1B status by the end of the season and the fantasy football playoffs. In the worst-case scenario, Hampton is starting over Harris immediately and relegates the veteran to handcuff status within a few weeks.
What's particularly concerning for Najee's potential usage is that these two backs are cut from the same cloth. With only the possible exception of pass-blocking, there's no trait that Harris has over Hampton to keep him on the field. If the 22-year-old out of UNC hits the ground running, he could realistically vacuum up all of the valuable touches in this Greg Roman offense. Honestly, I recommend avoiding Harris altogether in drafts at this point, unless his ADP falls all the way to handcuff range (which is unlikely).
TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
I'll keep this one short and sweet. Kmet's fantasy value was already questionable, as he was unlikely to ever pass either D.J. Moore or Rome Odunze to become a top two target-earner on the Bears' offense. Now that Colston Loveland has arrived in town with 10th-overall draft capital on his side, we can essentially cross Kmet off of fantasy draft boards. He's not going to be relevant without at least one injury, and tight end handcuffs are not worth holding.
WR Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers
In one of the more surprising moves of the night, the Panthers drafted Tetairoa McMillan, wide receiver out of Arizona, with their eighth overall pick. That's not a good sign for the first-overall pick from last year, Xavier Legette. Legette's rookie season was disappointing, but there was still room to expect a second-year breakout from him in an open Carolina receiving room.
Of course, the 24-year-old can still break out, but it's a lot less likely that he will ascend to target-hog status with McMillan in town. For what it's worth, this move is also a downgrade for both Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker — instead of competing to be the Panthers' top target, these three WRs are now competing to play second fiddle in an offense that we don't have much confidence in.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
For the most part, veterans impacted by Round 1 of the draft will see their fantasy values fall. For players already in the NFL, the draft is mostly about dodging landmines, and getting through Round 1 is no guarantee of making it out safely (especially for running backs). But there's still room for a few risers now and then, and Trevor Lawrence definitely fits the bill.
With the Jaguars' selection of Travis Hunter, T-Law now has two very exciting young receivers to throw the ball to. Combine that with Liam Coen hopefully bringing a more effective offensive scheme, and we may finally see the former first-overall pick making good on his fantasy potential. Don't get too excited, as Lawrence has never finished inside the top 10 QBs in points per game in his career … but that might change this season.
WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
That was a fun break for some optimism, but we must go right back to crossing players off fantasy draft boards. Jalen McMillan's mid-round ADP in early Best Ball drafts was already optimistic, as he was essentially guaranteed to be the Buccaneers' third target behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Now that Tampa Bay has added a first-round receiver in Emeka Egbuka, McMillan is firmly fourth on that depth chart.
If you're a believer in McMillan, you could still argue that the 23-year-old has value as a handcuff, especially given Evans' and Godwin's injury histories. For me personally, I was never too sold on McMillan's talent — the majority of his late-season production last year was driven by touchdowns, and he never posted good marks in more predictive metrics like yards per route run. Now that he is even further buried on Tampa's depth chart, I won't be drafting McMillan in anything close to an average-sized Redraft league.
WRs Jalen Tolbert/KaVontae Turpin, Dallas Cowboys
I'm undeniably reaching at this point to try to find veterans who gained value last night. The Cowboys were widely mocked to take a wide receiver with the 12th overall pick, usually Tetairoa McMillan or Matthew Golden. But McMillan was already gone by the time Dallas' pick came along, and they chose to pass on Golden. That means, for now, the Cowboys' WR2 job behind CeeDee Lamb is still up for grabs. The top two candidates to claim that spot are Tolbert, a 2022 third-rounder, and Turpin, a dynamic playmaker and former USFL MVP who has mostly played a gadget role in Dallas' offense.
The issue with this take is obvious: The Cowboys are still very likely to draft a receiver, if not multiple, with their remaining picks. If that hypothetical player is selected with either their second or third-round pick, they should get the first shot to start ahead of both Tolbert and Turpin. But even a second-round receiver is much more likely to bust, or even just have a slow start, than one taken 12th overall. It's a thin ray of hope, but there's a chance one of these vets can carve out fantasy relevance as the second target in an offense that should be much improved with Dak Prescott back under center.
Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.